A third wave is inevitable as the number of cases exceeds 30 million

Healthcare workers will administer the Covid-19 vaccine to beneficiaries at the Vaccination Center in New Delhi, India, on June 10, 2021.

Sanchit Kanna | Hindustan Times | Getty Images

In India, more than 30 million Covid-19 cases have been reported since the pandemic began last year.

According to government data, 50,848 infections were recorded during the 24 hours of Wednesday, bringing the total number of reported cases to 30.02 million. The daily death toll reported was 1,358.

The United States is the only country in the world to report more cases than India.

South Asian countries were hit by a catastrophic second wave when reported cases of coronavirus surged from February to early May. It overwhelmed the hospital and left a shortage of medical supplies such as oxygen and medicines.

A Highly contagious variant Infection with the coronavirus, known as the delta mutant, was first reported in India and has been reported to be part of the cause of the surge in cases in India.

Since then, it has spread rapidly all over the world. Over 80 countries..World Health Organization, Delta Dominant variant Of illness all over the world.

We believe that this resumption strategy is unwise and could lead to new increases in infectious diseases and tighter regulation in the future.

Priyan Kakishore

Oxford Economics

Last year, India’s central government imposed a month-long national blockade to delay the outbreak, leaving millions unemployed. This time, the state government has imposed more local restrictions to stop the spread of the virus.

Some economists, including Societe Generale Knarkundu, are likely to be left “severely hurt” by multiple waves of unemployment, loss of income, unprecedented health crisis, and associated costs. Is called.

Kundu said in a memo this week that the second wave could have hit rural areas of India as well, affecting rural demand despite the normal monsoon.

Preparation for the third wave

Government officials, epidemiologists and other health experts say a third wave is inevitable, and some predict that it could hit India by October.

In a Reuters poll Among the 40 medical professionals, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors around the world, there is a consensus that the third wave is better controlled than the current wave.

Experts say vaccination is India’s way forward, but many warn against the immediate lifting of restrictions.

To date, less than 5% of India’s total population has been vaccinated twice, which should be considered fully vaccinated. The deployment of vaccination faced challenges this year, including supply shortages.

Statistics edited by scientific online publications Our world in data It has been shown that about 16% of the population has been vaccinated at least once in India.

The country has set an ambitious goal of producing more than 2 billion Covid-19 vaccines by December — in theory, it is sufficient to inoculate most of its population.But Some public health experts say Vaccine targeting alone does not help immunize everyone.

Vaccination rates are well below what is considered safe to significantly ease social distance measurements in populated and economically important states.

Priyan Kakishore

Oxford Economics

To convince people to take their shots, the country has the necessary infrastructure in the Indian countryside, as they deploy vaccination drives and many are still hesitant, especially in the countryside. It says it needs to be set up.

The central government has launched a campaign to vaccinate all adults free of charge on Mondays. India reportedly gave a record 7.5 million doses..

Resuming too early is “unwise”

Decrease in Covid-19 cases in recent weeks Encourages the state to begin easing restrictionsIncluding planned resumption of Classroom education for schools and universities.. Some observers have stated that this move could potentially backfire.

“Vaccination rates are safe to ease social distance measurements in populous and economically important states,” said Priyanka Kishor, head of the Indian and Southeast Asian economic sector at Oxford Economics, in a note Wednesday. It’s well below what seems to be the level. “

She said partial restrictions are likely to continue in the coming months, but resumptions are starting at a faster pace than expected.

“We believe this resumption strategy is unwise and could lead to new increases in infectious diseases and tighter regulation in the future,” Kishore said. She said that states with low vaccination rates could be forced to step up measures to combat the outbreak of the new coronavirus, a spillover that would force other states to tighten restrictions again. He explained that it may have an effect.

Oxford Economics remains cautious about its outlook, maintaining India’s 2021 growth forecast at 9.1%.

A third wave is inevitable as the number of cases exceeds 30 million

Source link A third wave is inevitable as the number of cases exceeds 30 million

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