Denver, Colorado 2020-10-29 20:21:54 –
DENVER – More than 2.1 million Colorado voters have already voted in the 2020 election. That includes more than 760,000 unaffiliated voters in the state.
Since 2014, nearly 240,000 voters have chosen to change party affiliation. Many of those who decided to change left one of the two main political parties to become unaffiliated voters.
Blue, red and purple
Sandra Fish is a reporter for the Colorado News Collaborative and the Colorado Sun and found that 65,868 Republicans and 47,838 Democrats changed their affiliation to unaffiliated, as reported by The Sun.
“The numbers for the Republican Party are actually a little lower than they were in 2014. A lot of people have left the party or no longer register as Republicans,” Fish said.
Fish decided to look at 2014 data for comparison because it was the last time U.S. Senator Cory Gardner and former Governor John Hickenlooper were on a statewide ballot.
There is also an increase in the number of new registrants reporting as unaffiliated.
“You have over half a million new voters and most of them are 40 or younger, and most of them register as unaffiliated,” Fish said.
Colorado is one of 21 states that allow people to register to vote or change their affiliation until election day.
Data collected by Fish and The Sun also revealed some shifts on the part of unaffiliated voters to align with different political parties; Fish found that 46,828 changed their registration to Democrat while 30,481 changed to Republican.
There have also been movements between the two major parties themselves: 13,066 Democrats have become Republicans while 14,907 Republicans have become Democrats.
Why voters change parties
“There are many reasons why people can change parties,” said Robert Preuhs, professor of political science at Metropolitan State University in Denver. “A lot of it is about ideological possessions, and therefore people who feel their party has moved away from them or that they have personally moved away from their party.
The personalities of politicians can also cause party changes.
There are some advantages to registering as a major party or otherwise. On the one hand, they can participate in partial caucuses. However, unaffiliated voters can now participate in the primaries for either of the Colorado parties, although not in all states.
“There are definitely advantages to not being an affiliate. The parties can’t find you and they don’t know exactly which way you’re leaning, ”said Preuhs.
However, Fish predicts there could be even more changes after the 2020 election, such as removing party affiliations from certain races, like the clerk and clerk or sheriff candidates.
In general, however, Preuhs says the distribution of unaffiliated voters tends to reflect how partisan voters vote and who are more likely to vote Democrat than Republican.
Beyond that, the idea of not being an affiliate could be a bit of a misuse.
“About 90 percent of unaffiliated voters tend to vote with the same party year after year, so even though they’re technically unaffiliated, they’re still really partisan in some way,” Preuhs said.
The mathematics behind decision-making
On the University of Colorado Boulder campus, researchers are using mathematics to try to determine how people make decisions.
Zack Kilpatrick, co-author of a new study on decision-making, found that there are two types of decision-makers: those who make up their minds quickly and those who take more time to deliberate.
Whether deciding which presidential candidate to choose or which phone plan to buy, decisions are made the same way. People combine their personal research with social evidence (what their peers say) to make up their minds.
Data has shown that hasty decision makers can influence others.
“We have found that members of these groups make decisions in waves – where the quickest person to make a decision will end up triggering a wave of decisions in a group of friends who tend to agree with them.” , Kilpatrick said. “It would be like someone announcing on Twitter who they would vote for and that could lead hundreds of other people to think that maybe they should vote for that person too.”
The benefit of making hasty decisions is that they can encourage someone who hasn’t made up their mind or is dragging their feet to come to a conclusion.
On the other hand, too many hasty decision-makers can lead communities to make the wrong choice, Kilpatrick said.
“It’s good to have people making decisions quickly as long as you balance that out in the group with a lot of people making decisions more deliberately,” Kilpatrick said.
For voting in particular, Kilpatrick believes that postal ballots improve the accuracy of decisions by people who adequately reflect their beliefs since they have time to research each question and do not feel rushed into a voting booth. .
For Kilpatrick, the bottom line is that voters know who influences their decisions and why.
“What these models really tell us is that it is extremely important to consider and determine the quality of the information source you are pulling from and also the biases of the information source you are pulling,” a he declared.