According to a Deutsche Bank survey, stock market revisions are “likely to be 5% -10% by the end of the year.”jobs

Many investors are now expecting up to 10% stock market corrections by the end of the year-as a reminder of bull market rebound growth.

Deutsche Bank’s latest survey of more than 550 market experts around the world, released this morning, found that 58% expected a 5% to 10% revision by the end of 2021.

One in ten is prepared for a sudden sellout, and nearly one-third expect the market to reach 2022 without a fall.

September Investor Survey by Deutsche Bank Photo: Deutsche Bank

2021 is a very strong year for the market, in the United States S & P 500 Europe increased by more than 18% from the beginning of January Stoxx 600 It will increase by 17%.Britain FTSE 100 It’s late, but it’s still up over 9%.

Optimism that central bank stimulus, government spending, and vaccines spur a strong recovery has helped nearly double the global market since the March 2020 crash.

After a rally that pushed the stock market valuation very high on most historical indicators, the 10% revision still leaves most of the pandemic gain intact.

MSCI All Country World Equity Index for the Last Two Years

MSCI All Country World Equity Index Photo for the Last Two Years: Refinitiv

Risk A new variant of Covid-19 that bypasses the vaccine According to a Deutsche Bank survey, this is the greatest risk to market stability. However, the majority of respondents expect current doses of the vaccine to prevent at least severe cases of Covid.

Then the concerns continue Rising inflation, NS Weaker recovery than expected, And worried about it Central banks can make policy mistakes (Stimulation ends too quickly, etc.).

Geopolitics, Risk High tech bubble burst, When Increased debt burden It is also on the list of concerns.

Deutsche Bank's September 2021 Investor Survey

Investor Survey by Deutsche Bank, September 2021 Photo: Deutsche Bank

Going forward, a net 14% * of investors predicted that the S & P 500 Index would rise in three months and become the second lowest in a year. [* showing that more expect it to be higher, rather than lower]..

And they are optimistic in the long run, with a solid majority expecting US and European equities to rise in a year (net balances above 40%).

Deutsche Bank Investor Survey, September 2021

Photo: Deutsche Bank

Market watch I published a good article on this issue over the weekend-here are the flavors:

Stock market valuations are “historically extreme” by almost all criteria. Also, while valuation revisions do not necessarily result in a market recession, Wall Street’s top strategists warned that the risk of “hard” revisions is increasing.

Deutsche Bank’s chief strategist, Binky Chadha, said in a note Thursday, “The current cycle is so rapid that there is an increased risk that it will be difficult to fix.”

The warning is that Wall Street companies are nervous as stocks continue to rise, pushing key indices to record highs without a significant pullback. Including Friday, the S & P 500 has passed 214 trading days without a 5% withdrawal, up more than 33% in that range. According to Dow Jones Market Data, this is the longest run without pullback since the 404-day run that ended on February 2, 2018.

Market watch

Deutsche Bank states that the risk of valuation revisions in the “harsh” stock market is increasing. This is the reason.

September 10, 2021

According to a Deutsche Bank survey, stock market revisions are “likely to be 5% -10% by the end of the year.”jobs

Source link According to a Deutsche Bank survey, stock market revisions are “likely to be 5% -10% by the end of the year.”jobs

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