At a job fair in Torrance, Calif., June 23, 2021, an executive chef interviewed job seekers about employment in hospitality.
Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images
According to some labor economists, Covid-19’s rapidly expanding delta variant could be the reason Congress extends its federal unemployment allowance past its expiration in early September.
Rising COVID They said the case load was primarily the result of highly infectious virus strains, which could undermine US economic recovery at about the same time that federal interests were to end.
According to economists, parents say that local outbreaks have reduced face-to-face activities such as restaurant meals for both vaccinated and non-vaccinated consumers, and some schools have adopted distance learning in the fall. Will be at home.
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Eliza Forsythe, an assistant professor and economist at the University of Illinois, said: “And the unemployment system will not exist in people like it did in the past year.”
Of course, this is a fictitious scenario. And there are few signs of political willingness to continue profits beyond the September 6th expiration date.
Approximately half of the Republican states have already withdrawn from the federal unemployment program a few months ago, claiming that benefits are preventing beneficiaries from returning to work.
However, some economists believe that dynamics is one thing Congress should consider given recent Covid statistics.
“We should think more about these assumptions than we do now,” said Arindrajit Duvet, a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the seven-day average of newly identified Covid cases exceeded 26,000 as of July 14, double the total two weeks ago.
The CDC estimates that 58% of recent US cases are due to delta mutations, which are more contagious than other strains. In some areas, such as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, this subspecies accounts for nearly 90% of new cases. according to To CDC.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, Chief Medical Advisor of the White House Said In June, the Delta variant was “currently the greatest threat in the United States to attempts to eliminate Covid-19.”
“I think most of our economic policies are based on the current state of the pandemic,” Dube said. “Pandemic economics is not always over.”
The surge in caseloads was the reason Congress first created a pandemic-era benefits program through the CARES Act in March 2020.
The unemployment system has expanded significantly and people who are usually not eligible for state assistance, such as those who have run out of state benefits, self-employed people, gig workers, parents who had to take care of their children at home, etc. Assisted.
However, economists quickly point out that the current situation is different. Last year, the Covid vaccine was not available. Currently, almost 60% of American adults are fully vaccinated.So far, the delta variant Primarily spread to unvaccinated individuals..
“In that case, [unemployment] “We don’t need to extend the program, we just need more vaccinations,” said Michael Farren, an economist at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.
For example, if policies delay some workers’ return to the workforce, extending federal benefits could hurt the economy, Faren said. The risk of companies automating certain tasks also makes it harder for them to play a role, he said.
However, some groups, such as children under the age of 12, want a vaccine but cannot get it, Dube said.
Outbreaks are likely to be concentrated in areas with relatively low vaccination rates, Dube said. But in Los Angeles County, for example, officials said Thursday that delta mutations require masks indoors, regardless of vaccination status.
According to Dube, such mitigation measures could increase layoffs, even for vaccinated residents, who could be cautious about visiting indoor restaurants, bars, cafes and cinemas. ..
“When the virus was rampant, people across the country seemed to be reducing face-to-face interactions,” Forsythe said. “I don’t think there’s any reason not to think it will never happen again.”
According to experts, the Delta variant may increase the impetus for extending unemployment benefits
Source link According to experts, the Delta variant may increase the impetus for extending unemployment benefits