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All options carry risks as Biden confronts Putin over Ukraine | US Foreign Policy

Joe Biden is preparing for a virtual summit with Vladimir Putin With the aim of fending off the threat of another Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The summit was previewed by the Kremlin. The White House has not confirmed that, but Biden spokesman Jen Psaki said, “High-level diplomacy is a presidential priority.” Telephone conference with Xi Jinping Early November.

Your stakes are rarely higher than this. China threatens Taiwan, Russia is strengthening its military power around Ukraine.. In either case, the United States can be involved in conflict and have catastrophic consequences.

BrigGen Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian defense intelligence, told the Military Times on Saturday that Russia has more than 92,000 troops around the Ukrainian border and is preparing for an attack in January or February. rice field.Others say the threat is not so imminent, and Russia has a lot to lose from the aggression UkraineHowever, experts rarely completely eliminate intrusions.

When confronting Putin over Ukraine, all policy options available to Biden carry risks.

In a statement on Wednesday commemorating the Holodomor famine in Ukraine in the early 1930s, Biden reiterated “our unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Statements of such support are intended as deterrents, but each time they are repeated, they raise the dilemma that Biden faces if Putin calls his bluff.

“Frankly, I’m worried that we, the United States, will continue to make firm promises to Ukraine and either be in a position to keep them or be completely weak without keeping them. If so, we are Professor of Political Science at City University of New York, Rajan Menon, saying:

Hannah Sherest, Director of the Security Program of the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian prism The thinktank said US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty does not mean that it will eventually be drawn into combat.

“There was panic and hype about the new American boots on the ground. Now, who is inviting you to fight?” Sherest said. “There are many other options when talking about security assurance. For example, intelligence, sharing satellite images of storage and publishing them is already supported. American soldiers are on the line of contact. No need. You can make a very clear and appropriate level of diplomatic statement. “

CNN reported that there is an urgent policy debate over whether the Biden administration will strengthen the delivery of weapons such as Javelin anti-aircraft missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. Some governments say such weapons would increase the cost of Russia’s military aggression, thereby affecting Putin’s calculations. Others argue that it represents a dangerous escalation and will increase fear of the US or NATO attacks that underlie Russia’s aggressive military stance.

Fiona Hill, a former senior director of the National Security Council’s European and Russian affairs, said:

Hill helped prepare for Donald Trump’s summit with Putin and advised the Biden team before the first meeting as Russian leader and president in June. She said the new discussion was urgent and essential, but included a trap that Biden had to avoid.

“The current issue is how Russia sees the Ukraine issue as a very tough choice. The United States is worried about Ukraine’s sovereignty over the leaders of Europe as well as Ukraine, or of a full-scale war. I’m at risk, “Hill said. She added that the Kremlin had long wanted to return to the Cold War paradigm of the two superpowers that would sit and determine the sphere of influence.

One of the solutions that comes to mind is to mitigate Russia’s fears by eliminating the future. Nato Although it puts restrictions on Ukraine’s membership and its military power, Hill said it would make Ukraine’s sovereignty meaningless and set a damaging precedent.

“We can hold a virtual summit. We can sit with the United States and Russia, but Ukraine cannot stand at the negotiating table. We can talk about strategic stability, but we are in a position to negotiate Ukraine. Not at, “says Hill. “And it can’t be just the United States. Europeans have to take this seriously.”

Menon, co-author of the 2015 book Conflict in Ukraine: Rewinding Post-Cold War Order, suggested that the imminent threat was exaggerated. He said that long before the current crisis, 87,000 Russian troops were in an area adjacent to Ukraine, which was widely defined. He said some troops were more than 430 miles (700 km) away from the actual border.

“Assuming Russia can put an army of 100,000 into combat, there is no numerical advantage. [generally calculated at 3:1] Overwhelming the Ukrainian army is now better trained and equipped and has better morals than 2014, due to all its shortcomings, “he said.

“Furthermore, the further west of Russia, the longer the supply line, the greater the risk of hit-and-run tactics, the more confusing Russia can be and the more likely it is to encounter a larger proportion of the region. [unfriendly] Ethnic Ukrainian. These problems and the fact that Putin is burning all the bridges to the west by invading Ukraine are either ignored or given a short stupidity in the general story here. “

That does not mean that Putin will not eventually start the invasion if the Russian red lines cross, Menon said.

“We shouldn’t think about it, [if] Pushes come in when they say they don’t allow Ukraine to join NATO … they’re just bluffing. I don’t think they are bluffing at all. “

All options carry risks as Biden confronts Putin over Ukraine | US Foreign Policy

Source link All options carry risks as Biden confronts Putin over Ukraine | US Foreign Policy

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