America is still a dangerous country

The United States under Joe Biden is in an irreversible decline and has lost its will to power. It’s essentially the Chinese government’s view of the United States today.Chinese diplomats are no longer disguising their contempt American “fatigue”“.Judgment by him Military struts At the border with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin shares that view. Both Beijing and Moscow see America’s exhaustion as an opportunity to solve an unfinished business in the South China Sea and former Soviet territory. They may be dangerously misunderstanding America’s ability to change mood.

When the Iraq War began to fail under George W. Bush, Americans opposed foreign militarism. Since then, it has remained that way. Fifteen years later, it is easy to speculate that America’s “non-interventionism” has become the norm for the people. However, American history and common sense suggest that the climate can change rapidly from cold to hot in the face of new facts. Think about what happened after 9/11. Imagine a horde of Ukrainians fleeing this winter with Russian tanks making noise in the city.

The United States has previously received costly misjudgments. In 1950, North Korea misunderstood US Secretary of State Dean Acheson. Korea omitted From a map of America’s “defensive boundaries” in Asia. Three years of bloody battles continued on the Korean Peninsula. April Graspy, the US Ambassador to Iraq in 1990, told Saddam Hussein that the United States had no opinion on the “Arab-Arab conflict” due to the splits on the Iraq-Kuwait border. Within three months of the occupation of Kuwait, the United States formed a powerful force of hundreds of thousands in Saudi Arabia.

In 1999, Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic bet that NATO’s unity would collapse after several days of airstrikes on his country. 78 days later he acknowledged Kosovo’s independence. Even 9/11 was a misunderstanding.Papers obtained from Osama bin LadenThe last fall of the man showed that he thought that the terrorist attacks of 2001 would cause the United States to escape from the Islamic world. We know what happened.

The lesson of the story is that America does not necessarily react to wisdom. Many US wars were self-defeating, especially in response to 9/11. Importantly, Moscow and Beijing can easily confuse America’s moody today with a permanent resignation. Public opinion is capricious and can be prone to emotional upheaval. Biden is certainly not looking for a fight — he is bending backwards to find Putin’s diplomatic solution to Ukraine. Still he is a perfect politician. Biden can pivot if US voters become hawkish.

Putin, in particular, may be allowed to think that America has become a papier-mache tiger. Biden’s White House is preparing for two days while Russia is assembling its division at the Ukrainian border.The summit of democracy“. Online exchanges do not change the facts on earth — especially in homes where Biden lacks a vote to enact the protection of American democracy. It is unlikely that such an exercise would make the world’s dictators think twice.

In less than six months, Biden evacuated US troops from Afghanistan with the agility of leaving billions of dollars worth of equipment on the ground. This seemed like a quirky way to show that America was back. Barack Obama imposed sanctions on Russia after Putin annexed Crimea in 2014. Putin absorbed the cost and maintained Crimea.

Why does Russia expect a different reaction this time? Of course, I don’t know the answer. But it’s worth keeping in mind some facts. Due to all its foreign failures and domestic toxicity, the United States has a larger army than both Russia and China. It has fought more wars than any other country. Some of them are still happening, despite the low decline. Compared to other democracies, the United States has a martial arts culture. Americans respect their army more than any other institution.

The United States also has reckless abilities. As writer Robert Kagan pointed out, America is “Dangerous country“. The fact that it is relatively declining only sharpens its properties. The contested hegemons rarely enter the night quietly. Much of today’s foreign policy debate in the United States focuses on the risk of miscalculation by disrupting the red lines of China and Russia. If China and Russia were similarly worried about the American red line, the world would be a calmer place.

America is still a dangerous country

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