From Wisconsin to Arizona, as in many of the countries, these last weeks of the campaign said voters made their choices, and many made it official, so who actually votes? Looks like about. There is a flood of postal ballot returns, and almost all remaining voters say they are sticking to their decisions anyway.
The outbreak of coronavirus continues to shape elections in these states. Wisconsin is now experiencing a renewed number of cases, and Arizona was hit hard earlier this year. This is especially relevant to the views of those who vote for Democratic candidate Joe Biden. They point it out as a major reason for choosing him for President Trump and believe he handles the outbreak better. Biden has lowered the president’s 2016 level of support in key groups such as seniors, men, whites and non-university voters, pushing him to a five-point lead in Wisconsin and a three-point lead in Arizona.
Another way the coronavirus outbreak is shaping this election Method People are voting. In Wisconsin, many voters have switched to voting by mail, citing coronavirus concerns as the main reason.
Biden will lead those who have already voted in these important states to set what could be the moment of turnout on election day for the president and his supporters.
Arizona and Wisconsin have older voters who tend to vote for Republicans, and Biden is cutting margins, so Mr. Trump is performing poorly with them in Arizona compared to 2016. Mr. Trump’s lead among older people is half that of 2016. (Margins are an important indicator when considering support for different groups. In some cases, whether they are candidates or not. “”win“” Group is less important How much He or she wins or loses it. )
One reason: Almost half of Arizona’s older people say and feel that Trump’s response to the outbreak puts them and older voters at risk for the coronavirus. 95% of older people support Biden.
Elderly people, as they did four years ago, are largely divided in support at Wisconsin.
After the virus struck in the summer, most Arizona voters believe that efforts to contain the outbreak are on track, but they may have damaged the president’s political property. More voters say his administration has hurt rather than helped their state’s efforts to contain the outbreak. This is also true for Wisconsin, where thousands of new cases occur each day. Nine out of ten voters in Biden say that the outbreak of the coronavirus is a major factor in the decision to vote for him.
And Biden, along with voters, has an advantage over Mr. Trump in how each candidate treats himself personally. This may not be important to most of the president’s supporters, as relatively few people cite how Mr. Trump personally treats himself as a major reason for Mr. Trump’s support.
In Wisconsin, most of the coalition governments Trump won last time were white voters without a college degree. He is still leading the group, but Biden has cut that margin. Mr. Trump’s voting share with this group has decreased by 10 points since 2016.
Like voters throughout Wisconsin, the majority of these voters say the president is more concerned about the wealthy and elite than the middle class and the poor. Relatively few people say the same thing about Biden. Those who say Mr. Trump is the wealthiest and most interested in the elite have not voted for him.
Mr. Trump lost his relationship with a white man in Wisconsin. They supported him more than 20 points four years ago, but he now has an advantage of 7 points. White, non-university-educated men scored more than 40 points from 2016 presidential support, or just 15 points as of today. Mr. Trump is still leading the group, but his reduced margins are the main reason the state is now leaning towards the Democratic Party.
But don’t think these contests are over. These are not large state-wide margins that separate candidates. In low turnout scenarios, Arizona also returns to Wisconsin. So far, the Democratic Party may have taken the lead in the early returned vote in Wisconsin, but Mr. Trump’s voters will still vote directly on election day.
For Trump voters, the virus is less important as a supporter of him. The economy is the number one factor for them and the number one reason they do not support Biden. In Arizona, where the state’s reputation for economics is becoming more positive, the president has a three-point advantage over Biden in who handles the economy better. But in Wisconsin, where the economic outlook is more negative than positive, Biden is pulling within one point of Mr. Trump to deal with this issue.
We have asked voters if their rationale is primarily voting for Their candidate or Against Another one. From summer to autumn, the majority of Biden’s voters were primarily against Mr. Trump. This is becoming more and more true in Arizona. Up to 55% of Biden voters now feel this way, compared to 47% in September.
Female voters are helping Biden in Arizona. Biden has widened Hillary Clinton’s 2016 women’s margins and is backed by white women with a college degree, as seen in other fierce battle states. White college-educated women went narrow here for Mr. Trump across Clinton in 2016, but they are now in favor of Biden. The majority of these voters dislike the way Mr. Trump treats himself personally. White college-educated women in favor of Biden cite how Mr. Trump personally treats himself as a major factor in their decision not to vote for the president.
Finally, let’s take a look at how the campaign approach resonates. Mainly the advantage of Biden. Biden is good among voters who want politics to be “calm” and “normal” for the next four years, but Mr. Trump is good. Among (much less) people who want to be “excited” and “shaken”.
Both camps see the stakes in this election as very high. As yet another sign of how durable the view is, each side is worried about what will happen to the country. Other The party wins. Those who are most motivated to vote for candidates, and who are most enthusiastic about their support, are those who are most likely to have these fears.
Trump voters seem to see more in common with Biden voters than vice versa. Three in four Biden voters believe that the difference from Trump voters is not only in politics, but in Trump voters as a different kind of people. About half of Trump’s voters feel this way about Biden’s voters. About half think their politics are different, but otherwise similar.
Also, due to a record number of voters voting by mail this year, it may take some time to count votes in some states. The majority of voters in each of these states do not expect to know the winner of the presidential election on election night. Cross-partisan voters share this view.
These surveys were conducted by YouGov on behalf of CBS News from October 13-16, 2020. These surveys are based on a representative sample of 1,087 registered voters in Arizona and 1,124 in Wisconsin. Voter tolerances are ± 4.1 points in Arizona and ± 3.5 points in Wisconsin.