Brewers on the Road to the Championship? – Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2021-10-11 12:18:36 –

There are pros and cons to remove from the first weekend of NLDS, but the main points are: This is a three-game series between the Brewers and the Braves to determine who will face the Dodgers / Giants winners in the National League Championship. The series, and Brewers, lost their homefield advantage in the rest of the game. The road to progress now requires Brewers to win games 3 or 4 in Atlanta.

Fortunately, this was the best road team in Brewers franchise history, and they clinched the mark by a considerable margin. Until this season, the Brewers team had never won more than 47 of the 81 road games set by the 1982 team, and only three had won more than 43. 50 games away from the American Family Field.

But even that number underestimates how good Brewers was away from home this season. Their road record includes six games from the last week of the season. Here, I scored a playoff position with NL Central and played in two series against a team that played much more. Earlier that week, Brewers was 49-26 on the street. This is a notable record that was a bit dim with a 1-5 finish. They won the best road record in franchise history until September 11, which was also the 48th road win of the season with Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader’s no-hitter no-run.

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The Braves, on the other hand, haven’t been a great home team this season. They were 42-38 in Truist Park and won the 18th most home win in MLB. This is the lowest of the 2021 playoff teams, three games worse than the Cardinals and Brewers’ 45 home wins.

How important is home field advantage?

But October’s Homefield advantage can be a big issue this postseason. The team playing at home got off to a 6-0 start in the playoffs, and the host team won each of the wild card games and the first four divisions. Series game. The road team eventually won three of the first eight DS games, including Saturday’s Braves match against Brewers, but the home team won the first of this postseason after winning both games on Sunday. It was still 9-3 in 12 games.

The homefield advantage team reached 29-24 during the 2020 postseason. This was not a regular sample for a variety of reasons. In addition to a series of changes to the road team’s protocol during the postseason during the global pandemic, the 2020 postseason also featured 16 teams for the first time in MLB history and so far. Eighteen of the aforementioned contests took place during the expansion of the Wild Card Round. The Wild Card Round featured three different series in which the team was wiped out of the playoffs at home.

Looking back, in the last five “normal” seasons (2015-19), the home team has won about 53% of the 179 post-season games. This is about one additional win for every 17 games. Post-season homefield advantages vary greatly even with small sample sizes for the year. However, in 2019, there were only 15-22 home teams, including the World Series, where the visiting team won all seven games. This is unprecedented in major North American sports.

Conversely, in 2017, home teams were 27-11, including the American League Championship Series, where the host team won all seven games.

Despite year-to-year fluctuations, the post-season home team win rate of .530 is about the same as regular season data. The winning percentage of the home team was .539 during the 2021 regular season, ranging from .528 to .541 respectively. The 2015-19 season. The home team performed significantly better in the 2020 regular season (.557), but the unique nature of the shortened season under the COVID protocol may have contributed to the extraordinary performance.

So, in the end, it’s clear that Homefield’s advantage isn’t a big deal, unless it is. Moreover, this postseason may not be a big deal, but it may not be a big deal in this series. And by Thursday, it will be a major part of the story about NLDS put together, or just a footnote to a big story.


Kyle Robner

Kyle Robner covers Milwaukee Brewers in a weekly on-deck circle column on the Shepherd Express. He has been writing about Brewers and Minor League Baseball since 2008.

Read more by Kyle Robner

October 11, 2021

11:18 am

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