Trump jumps into national lead over Biden today as voters remember him as having a good economy, CBS News poll finds
With a historic rematch all but official on Super Tuesday, voters are comparing not just two presidents, but two presidents. Presidency.
Now, as a result of that comparison, former President Donald Trump has emerged as the frontrunner. Nationally, he leads President Biden by 4 points, his largest lead to date. Here’s why:
Voters are more fondly remembering the economy under Trump than they are appreciating the current economy.
Neither is highly rated, but today’s voters are looking back at President Trump’s term and giving them relatively better ratings than they have so far given President Joe Biden’s term.
(For the record, people did rate the economy highly in 2019, but that rating plummeted during Trump’s final year in office and amid the pandemic.)
This is true despite a progressively increasing view of today’s economy.
It still hasn’t helped Biden, at least compared to Trump.
Part of the reason is that Biden’s policies are expected to cause prices to rise.
And an overwhelming majority of Republicans say they expect prices to fall if Trump is elected.
This is part of a larger power relationship. Part of Biden’s deficit in the polls is due to his Democratic base being relatively critical of him. Twice as many Democrats call Biden’s presidency as fair or bad than Republicans who describe Trump’s presidency that way.
More voters think Trump “fights for people like them” than Biden does.
More voters think Donald Trump has a vision for the country than they think Joe Biden has.
And many of the Biden campaign’s arguments about Trump’s potential liability are not convincing enough to move Biden ahead of Trump.
Democracy
Most Americans think Trump tried to remain president beyond his term, but just under half think he tried to do so. illegally.
(And they are overwhelmingly voting for Biden.)
But the rest of the country (including those who think he tried to stay on legally) will overwhelmingly restore Trump to the presidency.
In other words, Mr. Biden does not have a significant advantage over Mr. Trump as a defender of democracy.
Abortion and in vitro fertilization
While most think Roe’s ouster was bad for the country, far fewer blame President Trump for it.
The majority believe that IVF should be legal.
immigration and borders
Trump has a big advantage in reducing the number of migrants crossing the border. This is a problem that most people continue to say is, if not a crisis, then at least very serious.
Trump vs. Biden Health
As has been the case in recent months, Trump is seen as being in better physical and cognitive health than Biden.
And finally, there are voter motivations and party bases.
When asked about their expectations for another Biden-Trump election, the most common words voters chose were “negative” and “depressing.”
This is especially true of the Democratic Party.
Most Biden voters feel this is an election primarily about fear of what will happen. And many of them are voting to oppose Trump rather than because they like Biden.
Most Trump voters say this is an election about their hopes for what will happen. Many of them are voting for Trump not because they oppose Biden, but because they like him.
And the effect, at least for now, is simply this. Biden is lagging behind, partly because Democrats are less likely to say they will definitely vote.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted using a nationally representative sample of 2,159 adult U.S. residents interviewed between February 28 and March 1, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey. Current census and past votes. The error is ±2.8 points.
Summarize this content to 100 words With a historic rematch all but official on Super Tuesday, voters are comparing not just two presidents, but two presidents. Presidency. Now, as a result of that comparison, former President Donald Trump has emerged as the frontrunner. Nationally, he leads President Biden by 4 points, his largest lead to date. Here’s why:Voters are more fondly remembering the economy under Trump than they are appreciating the current economy.
Neither is highly rated, but today’s voters are looking back at President Trump’s term and giving them relatively better ratings than they have so far given President Joe Biden’s term.
(For the record, people did rate the economy highly in 2019, but that rating plummeted during Trump’s final year in office and amid the pandemic.)
This is true despite a progressively increasing view of today’s economy. It still hasn’t helped Biden, at least compared to Trump.Part of the reason is that Biden’s policies are expected to cause prices to rise. And an overwhelming majority of Republicans say they expect prices to fall if Trump is elected.
This is part of a larger power relationship. Part of Biden’s deficit in the polls is due to his Democratic base being relatively critical of him. Twice as many Democrats call Biden’s presidency as fair or bad than Republicans who describe Trump’s presidency that way.
More voters think Trump “fights for people like them” than Biden does.
More voters think Donald Trump has a vision for the country than they think Joe Biden has.
And many of the Biden campaign’s arguments about Trump’s potential liability are not convincing enough to move Biden ahead of Trump.DemocracyMost Americans think Trump tried to remain president beyond his term, but just under half think he tried to do so. illegally. (And they are overwhelmingly voting for Biden.)But the rest of the country (including those who think he tried to stay on legally) will overwhelmingly restore Trump to the presidency.
In other words, Mr. Biden does not have a significant advantage over Mr. Trump as a defender of democracy.
Abortion and in vitro fertilizationWhile most think Roe’s ouster was bad for the country, far fewer blame President Trump for it.
The majority believe that IVF should be legal.
immigration and bordersTrump has a big advantage in reducing the number of migrants crossing the border. This is a problem that most people continue to say is, if not a crisis, then at least very serious.
Trump vs. Biden HealthAs has been the case in recent months, Trump is seen as being in better physical and cognitive health than Biden.
And finally, there are voter motivations and party bases. When asked about their expectations for another Biden-Trump election, the most common words voters chose were “negative” and “depressing.” This is especially true of the Democratic Party.
Most Biden voters feel this is an election primarily about fear of what will happen. And many of them are voting to oppose Trump rather than because they like Biden.
Most Trump voters say this is an election about their hopes for what will happen. Many of them are voting for Trump not because they oppose Biden, but because they like him.
And the effect, at least for now, is simply this. Biden is lagging behind, partly because Democrats are less likely to say they will definitely vote.This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted using a nationally representative sample of 2,159 adult U.S. residents interviewed between February 28 and March 1, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey. Current census and past votes. The error is ±2.8 points.top line
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anthony salvant
Dr. Anthony Salvanto is director of elections and investigations for CBS News. He heads up his CBS News Decision Desk, which oversees all polling for national, state, and Congressional elections and predicts results on election night. He is the author of “.Where did you get this number: A pollster’s guide to understanding the world”, a contributor from Simon & Schuster, a division of Paramount Global, and appears regularly on all CBS News platforms. His academic research and writings cover topics related to public opinion polling methods, voting behavior, and sampling techniques.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-leads-biden-economy/ Trump jumps into national lead over Biden today as voters remember him as having a good economy, CBS News poll finds
