Climate change could force 200M people from their homes by 2050, report finds – Honolulu, Hawaii

Honolulu, Hawaii 2021-09-13 11:07:25 –

Barcelona, ​​Spain (AP) —The World Bank reports that climate change will bring more than 200 million people over the next 30 years, unless urgent steps are taken to reduce global emissions and close development gaps. Leaving home can create a hotspot for migration. ..

The second part of the Groundswell report released on Monday reported that the effects of late-onset climate change, such as water scarcity, reduced crop productivity and rising sea levels, would be “climate migrants” under the age of three by 2050. We are investigating how to connect with millions of people. Different scenarios with different degrees of climatic behavior and development.

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Under the most pessimistic scenarios with high levels of emissions and unequal development, the report predicts up to 216 million people moving within their country across the six regions analyzed. Those areas are Latin America. North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Europe and Central Asia; South Asia; and East Asia and the Pacific Ocean.

In the most climate-friendly scenarios with low emissions, comprehensive and sustainable development, the number of migrants can be as low as 80%, yet 44 million people move.

The report does not consider the short-term impacts of climate change, such as the impacts on extreme weather events.

Viviane Wei Chen Clement, a senior climate change specialist at the World Bank and one of the authors of the report, said the findings “reaffirm the potential climate to induce migration within the country.”

In the worst-case scenario, sub-Saharan Africa, the most vulnerable region due to desertification, fragile coastlines and population dependence on agriculture, is the most active, with up to 86 million climate migrants within the border. To move.

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However, North Africa has the highest proportion of climatic immigrants, with increasing water shortages mainly on the northeastern coast of Tunisia, the northwestern coast of Algeria, which is projected to move 19 million people, accounting for about 9% of the total population. I am. , The hills of Western and Southern Morocco, and the Central Atlas, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is particularly affected by floods and crop failures, accounting for nearly half of the projected climate migrants and increasing the proportion of women migrating by 2050 under pessimistic scenarios. There are 1990 million people including.

“This is our humanitarian reality today, and we are concerned that it will be exacerbated if the vulnerability is more severe,” said Marten Huang, director of the International Red Cross Red Crescent Society Climate Center.・ Professor Aalst said.

The report did not look at cross-border climate migration.

Dr. Kanta Kumari Rigaud, World Bank’s Chief Environmental Specialist and co-author of the report, said:

Nevertheless, rural-to-urban migration patterns often precede cross-border migration.

The impact of climate change on migration is not new, but it is often part of a combination of factors that move people and acts as a multiplier for threats. People affected by conflict and inequality are more vulnerable to climate change due to limited means of adaptation.

The report also warns that migration hotspots will emerge within the next decade and may intensify by 2050.

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Some of the recommended actions were to achieve “net zero emissions to have the opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5 ° C by the middle of the century” and “environmentally friendly and resilient in line with the Paris Agreement”. It included investing in “powerful and inclusive” development.

Clement and Rigaud warned that the worst-case scenario would be “plausible”, especially in the next decade, unless collective action is taken to reduce emissions and invest in development.

Climate change could force 200M people from their homes by 2050, report finds Source link Climate change could force 200M people from their homes by 2050, report finds

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