American consumers will spend a record $537 billion on new apps, devices, and gadgets by 2025, according to a new one-year forecast from the Consumer Technology Association. But there is a catch, warned CTA’s futurist Brian Comiskey on stage on Friday at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas: Trump’s proposed tariff plan, which will raise costs for US consumers, can squash many who spend. The CTA “projects that there will be record retail revenue” for the US consumer technology industry in 2025 with growth of 3.2% in 2024. However, Comiskey warned that the projection could change because “smartphones and laptops are threatened by the proposed tariffs of President-elect Trump. . Tariffs on technology products could result in $90-$143 billion in B – reducing US purchasing power,” he said. In October, the CTA released a report examining two special tariff proposals: A 10% or 20% tariff on all imports from all countries, and a 60% tariff on all imports from China. It concluded that the proposal could increase prices on laptops and tablets by 46%, video game consoles by 40%, and smartphones by 26%. On stage, Comiskey offered additional color, explaining that spending on “tablets and laptops could drop by 68%, game consoles by 58%, and smartphones by 37%. Without these tariffs, the consumer technology industry is approaching what Comiskey calls a “super cycle”. This in part because only the latest PCs, tablets, and smartphones can access new AI-powered features such as Apple Intelligence, or Microsoft Copilot+ on PCs. CTA research shows that consumers want these features. Most consumers say they are familiar with generative AI That said, it’s already being used in the office. Meanwhile, AI is also creating many classic consumer tech categories, from fitness trackers to smart TVs (like the recently announced product from Google), to parenting technology like electronic baby rockers making gadgets useful may not matter. Because the last thing that shows 2025 as a big year for gadgets is the rise in purchasing power of Gen Z. By 2025, 27% of the global workforce is expected to be Gen Z, Udemy predicts. This is the generation that loves new technology the most and likes to be an early adopter.
Consumer technology spending will break records in 2025 if Trump’s tariffs aren’t squashed, CTA predicts
