Emmanuel Macron’s Trouble Opens Space for Marine Le Pen

MARION ANNE PERRINE LE PEN I didn’t really intend to go into politics. It was her sister Marie Caroline who was believed destined to follow in the footsteps of her father, Jean-Marie, co-founder of the French Far Right National Front in 1972. Marine, who became known at an early age, was a family baby and the third blonde daughter who tried to build a career as a lawyer. But for the past decade, it was Marine Le Pen who ran a party that she renamed the National Rally for accidental and guilty reasons. And 12 months later, in the third consecutive contest, her name will appear on the ballot for the next French presidential election. Is it time to think about something you can’t think of?

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When it comes to Ms. Le Pen’s potential to seize the presidency, consider the potential to inspire liberals, no matter how slim. The very debate about it provides her oxygen and justifies the candidate who once compared the praying Muslims on the streets of France with the occupation of the Nazis. Still, the odds of Ms. Le Pen’s victory are no longer close to zero. Emmanuel Macron’s reputation has declined as covid-19 infections have surged again and vaccination campaigns have just begun. After the president on the right (Nicolas Sarkozy), the left (François Hollande), and the center (Mr. Macron), unfascinated voters may want to try something else. The main reason voters tend to support her party is that they are fed up with everything else.

In addition, Ms. Le Pen is now a veteran activist who knows the victims of the two presidential elections, and the scars are gone. She mastered the catastrophic one-liner and ridiculed Macron’s decision on March 31st.Waterloo vaccine“. “”Confinement, confinement, re-confinement“Mr. Le Pen is cursing the government’s shift strategy. According to polls, she could score 47-48% against Macron’s 52-53% in the final vote today, which is a terribly narrow margin. It was once assumed that moderate voters on the left and right would stand up across the country with shock and embarrassment in order to keep Le Pen away from the highest positions. Today, voters, especially disillusioned with Mr Macron on the left, simply vow to abstain.

But if Macron’s problem opens up space for Le Pen, they also bring greater scrutiny. Some unpleasant types are still lurking in her shadow. You will have questions about her approach to democratic power exercise. In-depth inspection also includes what is called a competency challenge. In the past, when the National Front was a protester, this was hardly a problem. Her father tried to howl instead of dominating. She wants power.

Four years ago, her policy proposal was unique. She was a flexitor who vowed to withdraw France from the euro, close borders with immigrants, crack down on Islamism, build things in factories and continue working at home. She took her “patriotic” approach to Macron’s “MondialistVision: Deregulation and post-national Europeanism.

But today, Ms. Le Pen has abandoned France’s departure from the EU and promised to build a “national Europe” by maintaining the euro and reforming from within. Candidates no longer monopolize the issue of national sovereignty. All political parties pledge to make more masks, vaccines and medicines in France. Meanwhile, Macron’s “Republican Values” bill, which his critics consider to be Le Pen’s far-right hunt, also aims to curb Islamism. Indeed, his Interior Minister Gerald Dalmanin surprised her in the debate by accusing her of being too soft on such issues. Today, Le Pen, who is popular among anti-vacciners, supports vaccination.

Many voters still look at the family tree name, ignore the fresh packaging, and reject the underlying message as disruptive and toxic. Approximately a quarter say they support Le Pen in the first round, a year before the last presidential vote. Still, she has more room to grab. Some of her policies are currently difficult to distinguish from mainstream conservative or nationalist rights policies. In fact, her promise to limit citizenship and reduce immigration is endorsed by conservative political parties throughout Europe, including the United Kingdom. When Ms. Le Pen promises to take better control of things, voters may come down to whether she thinks she is competent enough to do so.

Paradoxically, this provides Macronista Some comfort. Forgetting Le Pen’s open second round discussion when Macron calmly reminded him in 2017 that he was confusing a company that manufactures phones with a company that manufactures industrial turbines. There is no one. He can be damaged by the handling of the third covid-19 wave. However, when vaccination began, Macron was still unable to recover. He is less hated than Sarkozy and Hollande at this time. Macron has considerable advantages if the next election relies on technical expertise.

Come one, come all

However, concerns about Mr. Le Pen’s ability to govern may also help potential rivals on the right. One is that Xavier Bertrand, the head of the Haut-de-France region, is already running. Another person, Valerie Pecres, who is responsible for the Paris region, may still do so. Yet another, Macron’s former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, sits as mayor of Le Havre and states that he is “faithful” and “free” on a promotional tour of the new book. For that, perhaps read: I’m not against Mr Macron, but don’t hesitate to declare if the president decides he can’t. Even Michel Barnier EUFormer Brexit negotiators can give it a try.

Ultimately, Ms. Le Pen can be judged, at least in the first round, by identity, emotions, and anti-elite anger in rural and industrial areas of France, rather than by brain calculations of expertise. Competency challenges apply further to spills. At this point, Macron is most likely to take over Le Pen and beat him slightly. But politics is still very fluid. Traditional political parties are empty. Rebellious French people like to bring surprises. No one is in a better position to know it than Mr Macron. ■■

This article was published in the printed European section under the heading “Think Unthinkable”.

Emmanuel Macron’s Trouble Opens Space for Marine Le Pen

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