Server Adrian Armanza brings a main dish to the table at the Satay Thai Bistro and Bar in Las Vegas, Nevada, March 28, 2021.
Bridget Bennett | Reuters
Employment growth in April could exceed one million, but many positions may not be filled either.
As more Americans are vaccinated and the economy is booming, economists expect to create more than one million jobs each in the coming months. According to Dow Jones, economists expect additional 1 million jobs in April and an unemployment rate of 5.8% from 6% in March.
Grant Thornton’s Chief Economist Diane Swonk said, “You’ll get good numbers. That’s great. It’s great to see encouraging numbers compared to the original numbers a year ago.” It was.
April is the first month of the second quarter and is expected to peak growth. Gross domestic product is expected to grow by more than 10%.
Goldman Sachs economists said, “High-volume vaccination and relaxation of business restrictions have supported rapid job growth in virus-sensitive industries, including leisure and hospitality, retail and education (public and private). It’s likely. ” They expect 1.3 million jobs to grow.
The April employment report has received widespread market attention as the Fed has promised to keep it. Zero rate policy And others Mitigation measures are being implemented Until you believe that the job market is recovering and inflation is recovering. However, amid growing concerns about rising inflation, some investors believe that a very strong job market could catalyze the Fed.
“From a market perspective, if one million jobs continue, I think it’s bad for the market,” said Luke Tilly, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “If you keep doing that, the Fed will bring us much sooner in terms of achieving its labor goals. It will start to stimulate the market.”
As the central bank moves away from bystanders, it is expected that the central bank will taper off first. $ 120 Billion Monthly Bond Purchasing Program.. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was not ready to discuss changes to its program, but many Federal Reserve watchers said they would have bonds later this year or earlier next year. Expected to taper off.
Changes in bond purchases herald an actual rate hike.
On Wednesday, April 14, 2021, shoppers wearing protective masks carry bags on Market Street in San Francisco, California.
David Paule Maurice | Bloomberg | Getty Images
As restaurants continue to grow in capacity and retailers see more people coming and going in their stores, consumers are helping to drive the economy’s surge.
However, economists want to see a wide range of job growth, including construction and professional services.
Mr Swonk said the significant boost in the job market came from stagnant consumer demand, especially from those who were stimulated. “They are abandoning and spending time,” she said.
Employment growth should be strong, Tilly said, but expectations could be too high.He said March 916,000 salary It may have been artificially boosted by the negative effects of the cold on work in February.
He added that restaurant job growth may not be as great as expected, as meal reservations are no longer increasing at the same pace.
“It may not be that pop from that type of work,” Tilly said. “There is a strong chorus from the business community that it’s hard to find someone to work with.” He said additional federal unemployment benefits would allow some workers to return home until September when the benefits run out. He said it might be a hindrance.
Swonk said many people are restricted from returning to work because their children are still at home and attending school. Others are still waiting for the first or second vaccination.
Tilly said he is monitoring the types of work added because the economy has a large skill mismatch and some companies do not need many workers to improve productivity.
“Inflation-adjusted retail sales have increased by 12.5% in the first quarter of this year. Retail sales have decreased by 2.5%,” he said.
By September, as more people are ready to work and employers re-employ more, the big picture of employment could be revealed, Tilley added.
He pointed out the changes made to the leisure industry that worked to survive the pandemic. At the restaurant, orders are taken over via the iPad and more meals are taken out.
“Yes, people will be more willing to work at that time. They will not be needed for the work they once had,” he said.
Employment expected to exceed 1 million in April as consumers boost the economy
Source link Employment expected to exceed 1 million in April as consumers boost the economy