The Ministry of Labor reported on Friday that the US economy has created far less jobs than expected in November, indicating that jobs have begun to slow ahead of the new Covid threat.
Number of non-farm payrolls That month’s increase was only 210,000Although the unemployment rate plummeted from 4.6% to 4.2%, this month’s labor force participation rate rose to 61.8%, the highest level since March 2020.
The Dow Jones estimates were 573,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5% in an economy suffering from chronic labor shortages.
The more comprehensive unemployment rate, including those who are discouraged or who work part-time for financial reasons, fell further, falling from 8.3% to 7.8%. Household surveys draw a picture of more optimistic work, showing an increase in employment for the month of 594,000.
“This report is the story of two surveys,” said Nick Banker, director of economic research at Indeed’s employer site. “Family surveys show accelerated employment growth, workers’ return to the workforce, and low levels of involuntary part-time work. Payroll surveys show particularly in the COVID-affected sector. It shows a significant slowdown in employment growth. “
“The underlying momentum in the labor market is still strong, but this month it shows more uncertainty than expected,” he added.
Leisure and hospitality, including bars, restaurants, hotels, and similar businesses, saw an increase of only 23,000 after becoming a major job creator for most of the recovery. The sector has regained about 7 million jobs lost in the depths of the pandemic, but the unemployment rate remains at 7.5%, about 1.3 million below February 2020 levels.
Despite disappointment, the market has dropped significantly, Stocks pointing to higher open On Wall Street.
Significant revisions have been made to the first job tabulation of the year, with the first few months frequently higher. In a report released on Friday, October and September estimates were raised to a total of 82,000.
The sectors that showed the largest growth in November include professional and business services (90,000), transportation and warehousing (50,000), and construction (31,000). As the holiday season approached, retail sales fell by 20,000. The government has added a total of 10,000 jobs.
Workers’ wages rose for a month, rising 0.26% in November and 4.8% from a year ago. Both numbers were slightly below the estimate.
Policy makers are watching employment numbers carefully to measure how close the economy is to a full recovery from the depth of the pandemic. The United States suffered the shortest but steepest recession in the early days of the Covid-19 epidemic and has been on a progressive but volatile path ever since.
The Federal Reserve added a new wrinkle this week when it showed that the steps it took to support growth could end sooner than expected.
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in parliamentary testimony at the beginning of the week Jerome Powell He said he hopes the central bank’s policy committee will discuss at this month’s meeting. Raise the level of tapering The monthly bond purchase. Powell said he is seeing a rewind to conclude “months” earlier than expected, a move that opens up the possibility of raising interest rates.
“The disappointing 210,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in November, even before the potential impact of new Omicron variants, probably as a result of rising infection rates in the northeast and midwest. , Suggesting that the labor market recovery was stagnant, “Written Andrew Hunter. Senior US Economist at Capital Economics. “Nevertheless, the Fed is pushing ahead with plans to accelerate the pace of quantitative easing at this month’s FOMC meeting.”
Mary Daly, Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, supported Powell’s comments in a statement Thursday, saying: Stronger and more durable inflation than expected It creates the need to rethink the policy. She said the Fed “at least, as you know, should consider raising interest rates,” and should accelerate the tapering pace.
Daily also hinted that the summary of economic forecasts released this month, which authorities have shown expectations for the future, is likely to indicate an accelerated rate hike in 2022. The market now expects the federal government to enact at least two-quarter percent-points up next year.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Governor James Bullard joined the choir on Friday, saying that the economy as measured by GDP will recover completely and can operate with less policy stimulus, especially given the pace of inflation.
“These considerations, after all, suggest that the Federal Open Market Committee should remove monetary policy adjustments,” Bullard said.
Employment growth in November was disappointing, with non-farm payrolls increasing by just 210,000.
Source link Employment growth in November was disappointing, with non-farm payrolls increasing by just 210,000.