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Global economic recovery is likely to be uneven: OECD

The latest economic outlook for the OECD has brightened the outlook for the global economy, but the recovery is not uniform and is likely to depend decisively on the effectiveness of public health measures and policy support. Economic recovery will be slower in many emerging market countries where access to vaccines is restricted, according to the report.

“In many developed countries, more and more people are being vaccinated, government stimulus measures are helping to boost demand, and businesses are better adapted to restrictions to stop the spread of the virus. Not only will the scope of government support be limited, but the economic recovery will be modest, “the OECD report said.

The OECD has revised its growth forecasts for all major economies of the world upwards since the last full economic outlook in December 2020. With government support, global GDP growth this year was 5.8% (compared to the projected 4.2% in December). In the United States, economic recovery due to stimulus measures was seen, reaching 4.4% in 2022 (3.7% in December). “The world economy is now back to pre-pandemic activity levels, but by the end of 2022, world real income will be about $ 3 trillion less than it would have been without the crisis,” the report said. ..

As long as the majority of the world’s population is unvaccinated and the risk of a new epidemic remains, recovery will be uneven and remain vulnerable to new setbacks, the outlook says. .. You may need to maintain some targeted restrictions on travel and activity, especially when traveling across borders. This affects the prospect of a full recovery in all countries, even in countries with fast vaccine coverage and low infection rates.

South Korea and the United States have already returned to pre-pandemic income levels, but in many parts of Europe it is expected that it will take another year to recover. In Mexico and South Africa, it can take an additional 3 to 5 years.

Conversely, high levels of household savings accumulated during the crisis can be unleashed as the economy resumes, pushing consumption and growth to higher-than-expected levels, especially in developed countries.

The release of stagnant demand in developed economies, coupled with the supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19, could boost inflation and market interest rates, resulting in vulnerable emerging and developing economies finance. There is a risk of exposure to pressure. However, according to Outlook, inflation surges are likely to be temporary as capacity normalizes, consumption rebalances from commodities to services, and turmoil begins to disappear by the end of the year. The OECD remains high. He adds that a cycle of sharp wage increases and inflation is unlikely to occur because of the unemployment of people in the world.

Fiber2Fashion News Desk (RKS)

The latest economic outlook for the OECD has brightened the outlook for the global economy, but the recovery is not uniform and is likely to depend decisively on the effectiveness of public health measures and policy support. Economic recovery will be slower in many emerging market countries where access to vaccines is restricted, according to the report.



Global economic recovery is likely to be uneven: OECD

Source link Global economic recovery is likely to be uneven: OECD

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