Despite the recovery, global production will be about 2% below pre-pandemic forecasts by the end of this year. Approximately two-thirds of emerging and developing countries will not eliminate their per capita income losses by 2022. In low-income countries where vaccination is delayed, the effects of the pandemic have reversed poverty reduction outcomes, exacerbating anxiety and other long-standing challenges.
Growth in low-income countries this year is expected to be the slowest in the last 20 years, excluding 2020, in part, reflecting the very slow pace of vaccination. Low-income countries are projected to grow by 2.9% in 2021 to 4.7% in 2022. World Bank Group output in 2022 is projected to be 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic forecasts.
“Despite the welcome signs of a global recovery, pandemics continue to bring poverty and inequality to people in developing countries around the world,” World Bank Group President David Malpas said in a press release. ..
“Globally coordinated efforts are essential to accelerate vaccine distribution and debt relief, especially for low-income countries. As the health crisis eases, policy makers address the lasting effects of a pandemic. And we need to take steps to promote green, tough and inclusive growth while protecting macroeconomic stability. “
Among the major countries, US growth is projected to reach 6.8% this year, reflecting large-scale financial support and relaxation of pandemic restrictions. Growth is strong in other developed countries, but not so much. Among emerging markets and developing countries, China is expected to recover to 8.5% this year, reflecting the release of accumulated demand.
Emerging markets and developing countries are projected to grow 6% this year as a group, supported by rising demand and rising commodity prices. However, in many countries recovery has been delayed due to relapses in COVID-19 cases, delayed vaccination, and in some cases withdrawal of policy support.
Excluding China, the recovery of countries in this group is expected to be a more modest 4.4%. The recovery in emerging and developing markets is projected to slow to 4.7% in 2022. Still, the group’s economic benefits are not sufficient to recoup the losses experienced during the 2020 recession, and 2022 output is below pre-pandemic forecasts.
Per capita income in many emerging and developing countries is also below pre-pandemic levels, and losses are expected to exacerbate poverty associated with health, education and living standards. The main driver of growth was expected to lose momentum even before the COVID-19 crisis, but pandemic scars can amplify that trend.
The analysis section of the World Economic Outlook Report examines how reducing trade costs, such as tedious logistics and border procedures, can help the recovery of emerging and developing countries by facilitating trade.
Despite the decline over the last 15 years, trade costs remain nearly half higher than in developed countries, primarily due to rising transportation and logistics costs.
The World Bank report states that efforts to streamline trade processes and customs requirements, improve transportation infrastructure and governance, promote information sharing, and strengthen competition in domestic logistics, retail and wholesale will lead to significant cost savings. Added.
Fiber2Fashion News Desk (DS)
The global economy is likely to grow 5.6% in 2021, the fastest pace in 80 years after the recession. However, many emerging and developing economies are suffering from pandemics and their aftermath. The bank said in its June 2021 global economic outlook.
Global recovery is strong and uneven. Many developing countries are suffering: WB
Source link Global recovery is strong and uneven. Many developing countries are suffering: WB