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Governor Gavin Newsom on the road to victory

Governor of California Gavin Newsom spoke at a recall campaign event with US Vice President Kamala Harris at the IBEW-NECA Joint Apprenticeship Training Center on September 8, 2021 in San Liandro, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Gavin Newsom is the second Governor of California to ever face a call and could be the first to survive the call.

All eyes are paying attention to the Golden State before the deadline for California’s registered voters to mail or vote directly on Tuesday.

The Democratic Governor has been vigorously campaigning for months to oppose the recall effort, which was characterized as a radical Republican power gain that upset his career and California’s future.

Above him $ 70 Million War Chest, Newsom covered radio and digital space with anti-recall ads featuring prominent Democrats such as Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and former President Barack Obama. The governor will also suspend a number of campaigns across the state to contact Democratic voters directly and will run a campaign with President Joe Biden on Long Beach at the end of Monday.

Newsom also took up a new campaign message to boost Democratic turnout and blamed his main enemy’s opposition to Covid’s mitigation measures.In between 46 candidates are running In the call, Larry Elder, the moderator of the conservative talk show, became a clear Republican front runner by speaking against the mask and vaccine obligations.

While Newsom Predicted to face more fierce competition in elections Just a month ago, his fierce campaign efforts seem to have paid off. Experts, recent polls, and early ballot return rates all show that Newsome is moving in the direction of easily overthrowing its recall efforts.

“At this point, there will be major polling mistakes for the recall effort to be successful,” said Democratic consultant Michael Sonev. “The chances of Newsom are very good. I want to be Gavin Newsom more than anyone else in this race.”

Newsom’s Newly Motivated Democratic Foundation

Despite nearly two-to-one more Republican voters than Democrats in the state, complacency among Newsom’s Democrats poses a potential threat to his chances of surviving the call.

However, Poll released on Friday According to the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times, Democratic voters are becoming more involved in the upcoming recall. Sixty percent of California voters said they would vote to keep New Sam in power, but only 39% voted to bring him back.

This is the first poll to show that Newsome exceeded the recall by more than 20 percentage points, a jump from the previous poll conducted by the same agency just six weeks ago. In a July poll, there was much closer competition, with 50% of voters favoring holding Newsome and 47% favoring Newsum’s recall.

In a September poll by the California Institute of Public Policy, 58% of voters supported Newsom and 39% wanted to remove Newsom. SurveyUSA and The San Diego Union-Tribune found that 54% of voters were in favor of maintaining Newsom.

“The enthusiastic gap between Republicans and Democrats seems to have brought the recall to life early on,” said a political professor at three California universities who previously headed the California Fair Political Practices Commission. Dan Schnur said.

“Newsam spent most of the summer trying to persuade the Democratic base. [the recall] Worth their time and attention. And it’s clear from polls that he’s been successful in those efforts, “added Schnur.

This increased involvement among Democrats is also reflected in the early return rate of mailed ballots.

Polls conducted by the Berkeley Government Institute and the Los Angeles Times estimate that mail ballots make up about half of voters.

As of Saturday, registered Democratic voters accounted for about 52% of the approximately 7.8 million votes returned so far. According to daily data from Political Data Intelligence. Republicans are far behind, accounting for only 25% of that.

According to Sonev, the Republicans were so interested in the call elections a few months ago that they were expected to return the ballot sooner than the Democrats. Now they are still scrambling to catch up.

“The Democrats have significantly outstripped the Republicans in returning ballots to this point, opening a huge lead. The Republicans are trying to fill the gap and are making some progress, but not in the end. “Sonev continued. ..

More than 14,470,000 votes haven’t been returned yet, but Sonev said the recent return rate is “arguably a great start for Newsom.”

On Tuesday, September 7, 2021, ballots were placed in a security box during the Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall election at the Center in San Clemente, California.

Paul Bersebach | Media News Group | Getty Images

Sonev said the decline in Republican turnout so far in the 2020 presidential election is no surprise.

Former President Donald Trump is notorious Absentee ballot Last year, it was full of fraudulent votes and falsely claimed to be at a disadvantage to Republicans.

According to Sonev, Mr. Trump is convinced by many Republican supporters that the mail vote is “corrupted.”

“Mail voting has been in the United States since the late 1700s and has always been an integral part of elections, but Donald Trump’s view that mail voting is inherently bad has had a lasting impact on the Republican Party.” Said Mr. Sonev.

Trump’s influence can be seen among Republican candidates, such as elders, who have expressed distrust in the state and state voting systems. Last week’s Fox News. The elder reiterated the former president’s false allegations that fraudulent voting was widespread in the 2020 elections and sought to raise the same question for California’s recall.

A well-known figure in California for decades, the elder has become the only viable candidate to replace Newsom. According to polls conducted by the Berkeley Government Institute and the Los Angeles Times, 38% of voters said they would support his candidacy if Newsom was replaced. This is up from 18% in late July.

Opinion polls show that support for other Republican candidates has receded, with Kevin Pafras, the elder’s next candidate, only 10% of voters’ support.

Republicans are expected to outpace Democrats in direct voting on election days, Sonef said.

This is reflected in the polls conducted by the Berkeley Government Institute and the Los Angeles Times. 77% of voters who said they would vote directly on election day said they would vote to bring back the governor.

However, according to Sonev, this is not expected to have a significant impact on the outcome of the election, given that the Democratic Party has taken a significant lead in previous mail ballots.

Newsom’s Coronavirus Campaign Strategy

The allegations that Newsom mishandled the state’s response to the coronavirus pandemic fueled Republican-led recall efforts in 2020.

But in the weeks leading up to the call, Newsom’s campaign seized the fear of a pandemic to help ensure his potential victory.

“The big irony of this election is that it helped Newsom dodge the recall effort nine months ago,” said Republican consultant Rob Stutzman. ..

Californians cite the coronavirus as the number one problem facing the state. September survey Conducted by the California Institute of Public Policy (PPIC). Many of Newsom’s anti-recall ads and campaign suspensions in recent weeks have focused on this, warning voters of what would happen to the state’s coronavirus status if Republican opponents take office.

“Republicans are trying to remember [Newsom] From the office, it overturns common-sense Covid security measures for healthcare professionals and school staff, “former President Barack Obama said in a recent recall prevention ad.

Each voter’s ballot can make the difference between protecting children and endangering them, helping Californians recover, or retreating us, “Obama said. He added.

Another anti-recall ad accused the Republican top candidate in the race of elders, claiming he would “defeat the deadly conspiracy theory and eliminate vaccination obligations on the first day.”

The elder vowed to overturn all vaccine and mask obligations at a rally in Fresno in late August. “When I became governor, assuming there were still vaccine obligations and face mask obligations, they would be abolished before I drank my first tea,” he told the crowd at a rally. I applauded.

The candidate for Governor Larry Elder will speak at a press conference at Luxe Sunset Boulevard on Sunday, September 12, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.

Francine O | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

The elder openly refused coronavirus health measures Claimed in an interview with CNN on August 31 The science does not suggest that young people should be vaccinated at school and wear masks.

Part of Newsom’s latest strategy aims to take advantage of elders’ opposition to coronavirus health measures, encouraging Democrats to take action and vote for recalls, Schnur said. Stated.

“One way to campaign to motivate voters is to tell them something very scary and alarming about their opponents,” Schnur said. “And Larry Elder is perfect for this. If he didn’t exist, Gavin Newsom would probably have wanted to invent him.”

Aside from warning voters about Republican challengers, the governor has spent the last few weeks of his campaign promoting his own efforts to fight the coronavirus in recent months.

“California is one of the lowest [Covid] We believe in science, so it is one of the highest immunization rates in the United States and we believe in public health. We accept the debate and are interested in the evidence, not the idealism. ”

PPIC President Mark Baldassare suggests that Newsom’s reaction to the coronavirus could be one of his strengths in the call election, which could increase Democratic turnout.

According to a September PPIC survey, about 6 out of 10 Californians, and likely voters, have approved how Newsome dealt with the coronavirus pandemic. And more than three in four Californians believe that the state government is doing a “good or good job” in distributing the Covid-19 vaccine.

“The message about Covid and the importance of maintaining a governor to continue these efforts around Covid, which is considered the biggest problem in California, motivates Democratic voters on these last days. “Baldassare said.

Governor Gavin Newsom on the road to victory

Source link Governor Gavin Newsom on the road to victory

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