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If poor countries are not vaccinated, studies show that rich countries will pay

By monopolizing the supply of vaccines for Covid-19, wealthy nations are at risk beyond humanitarian catastrophe. The resulting economic devastation will hurt countries as wealthy as developing countries.

This is an important point from the academic research published on Monday. In the most extreme scenario, rich countries will be fully vaccinated by the middle of this year and poor countries will be largely closed. The study concludes that the global economy suffers over $ 9 trillion in losses, exceeding annual production in Japan and Germany. combine.

Almost half of these costs are absorbed by wealthy countries such as the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.

In the scenario researchers say most likely, developing countries will vaccinate half of their population by the end of the year, but the global economy will still absorb the $ 1.8- $ 3.8 trillion blow. More than half of the pain will be concentrated in wealthy countries.

Commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce, the study concludes that fair distribution of vaccines is in the economic interests of all countries, especially those that are most dependent on trade. It is a rebuke for the general notion that sharing vaccines with poor countries is just a form of charity.

“Clearly, all economies are connected,” said Selva Demiralp, an economist at Koc University in Istanbul who previously worked for the Federal Reserve in Washington and one of the authors of the study. “Unless other economies recover, the economy will not recover completely.”

Demiralp said a global charitable initiative known as the ACT Accelerator aimed at providing pandemic resources to developing countries has secured a commitment of less than $ 11 billion towards a $ 38 billion target. I did. This study provides an economic basis for closing the gap. The remaining $ 27 billion, which may seem like a huge sum at first glance, is small compared to the cost of continuing the pandemic.

The mundane idea that pandemics do not respect borders, race or class divisions has been promoted by corporate chief executive officers and professionals. This concept of comfort is that while Covid-19 trained low-paying service workers, especially the death of racial minorities and the destruction of livelihoods, white-collar employees could work primarily safely from home. It has been believed by the reality that it was possible. Many of the wealthiest people in the world can survive a pandemic on a yacht or private island.

However, in the field of international commerce, it does not hide from the coronavirus, as research has brought back. Instead, there is a global supply chain that manufactures industrial parts, and as long as the virus remains in power, it will continue to be confused.

A team of economists from Koc, Harvard, and the University of Maryland surveyed trade data across 35 industries in 65 countries and extensively investigated the economic implications of unequal vaccine distribution.

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Answers to vaccine questions

The exact order of vaccinated people may vary from state to state, but in most cases healthcare professionals and caregiver residents are the top priority. This article is useful if you want to understand how this decision is made.

Life will return to normal only if society as a whole has adequate protection against the coronavirus. Once the country has approved the vaccine, only a few percent of the population will be vaccinated in the first few months. The majority of unvaccinated people remain vulnerable to infection. More and more coronavirus vaccines show strong protection against getting sick. However, the virus can spread without knowing that it is infected, as it has only mild or no symptoms. Scientists still don’t know if the vaccine will also block the infection with the coronavirus. Therefore, for the time being, even vaccinated people should wear masks and avoid indoor congestion. Once a sufficient number of people have been vaccinated, it becomes very difficult to find people who are susceptible to the coronavirus. Life may begin to approach normal by the fall of 2021, depending on how quickly we as a society reach that goal.

Yes, but not forever. Two vaccines that may be approved this month clearly protect people from illness caused by Covid-19. However, the clinical trials that produced these results were not designed to determine whether vaccinated people could spread the coronavirus without developing symptoms. It remains a possibility. We know that people who are naturally infected with the coronavirus can spread the coronavirus in the absence of coughing and other symptoms. As the vaccine is deployed, researchers will enthusiastically study this question. In the meantime, even vaccinated people need to think of themselves as possible spreaders.

Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines, like other common vaccines, are delivered in one shot in the arm. The injection is no different from what you got before. Tens of thousands of people have already been vaccinated and no one has reported serious health problems. However, some of them experience short-term discomfort, such as pain and flu-like symptoms that usually last for a day. After the second shot, you may need to plan for a break from work or school. These experiences are not fun, but they are good signs. These are the result of your own immune system encountering the vaccine and initiating a powerful response that provides long-term immunity.

No. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines use genetic molecules to stimulate the immune system. The molecule, known as mRNA, is eventually destroyed by the body. The mRNA is packaged in an oily foam that can fuse with the cell and slide the molecule into it. Cells use mRNA to make proteins from coronaviruses that can stimulate the immune system. At any given time, each of our cells may contain the hundreds of thousands of mRNA molecules they produce to make their own proteins. When these proteins are made, our cells shred mRNA with a special enzyme. The mRNA molecules that our cells make can survive for only a few minutes. Vaccine mRNA is designed to withstand the cells’ enzymes a little longer, allowing the cells to make extra viral proteins and stimulate a stronger immune response. However, mRNA can last for at most a few days before it is destroyed.

If people in developing countries are absent from work due to the blockade needed to stop the spread of the virus, they will spend less money and reduce sales for exporters in North America, Europe and East Asia. .. Multinationals in developed countries also struggle to get the parts, components and products they need.

At the heart of the story is the reality that most international trade is not a finished product, but includes parts that are shipped from one country to another and folded into a product. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, of the $ 18 trillion worth of commodities traded last year, so-called intermediate goods are worth $ 11 trillion.

Research shows that continued pandemics in poor countries could be the worst potential for industries that rely specifically on suppliers around the world, such as automotive, textiles, construction, and retail, where sales can decline by more than 5%. there is.

The findings add a complex layer to the basic assumption that pandemics make the world economy more unequal than ever. This may seem true, but one prominent form of inequality, access to vaccines, can cause universal problems.

As extraordinary evidence of the innovative capabilities of the world’s most skilled scientists, some of the leading pharmaceutical companies have produced life-saving vaccines in as little time as possible. However, the wealthiest countries in North America and Europe have shut out orders for supplies in sufficient quantities to vaccinate twice and three times their population, and poor countries struggled to secure market share.

Many developing countries, from Bangladesh to Tanzania to Peru, may have to wait until 2024 before fully vaccination of their population.

The inauguration of President Biden has boosted the initiative to supply additional resources to poor countries. The Trump administration did not contribute to the cause. Dr. Anthony S. Forch, Chief Medical Officer of Mr. Biden’s Pandemic, immediately announced that the United States would participate in a vaccine sharing campaign.

Developing countries are struggling to respond, in contrast to the trillions of dollars spent by wealthy governments to rescue businesses and workers affected by health emergencies and severe recessions. ..

Immigrant workers from poor countries were unemployed during the pandemic and were unable to remit their homes, devastating countries that depended on so-called remittances, such as the Philippines, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The global recession has significantly reduced demand for commodities, declining copper producers such as Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and oil-dependent countries such as Angola and Nigeria. The surge in Covid-19 cases has reduced tourism, employment and income losses in Thailand, Indonesia and Morocco.

Many poor countries have plunged into a pandemic with debt burdens that absorb much of government revenue and limit spending on health care. Private creditors have refused to participate in the discreet debt suspension program created by 20 groups. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have promised great bailouts, but have failed to generate large amounts of dollars.

Again, this seems to change as new leaders take over Washington. The Trump administration has opposed a $ 500 million expansion of the so-called special drawing rights at the IMF, a reserve asset that the government can exchange for hard currency. Mr Biden’s promotion has strengthened hope among fund members that his administration will support expansion. Democrats in parliament, who now control both chambers, have expressed support for measures to force the Treasury to act.

Still, in capitals like Washington and Brussels, discussions about assistance to developing countries have been organized from a moral point of view. Leaders have been discussing how much they can afford to help the most disadvantaged communities on Earth, mostly caring for their people.

Research challenges that framework. Leaders in the wealthiest countries conclude that their property is being hurt by failing to ensure that people in developing countries have access to vaccines.

“Until the pandemic ends everywhere, no matter how big the economy, it won’t be affected by the virus,” said John Denton, Executive Director of the International Chamber of Commerce. “Purchasing vaccines for developing countries is not a generous act by the wealthiest countries in the world. If the government wants to revive its domestic economy, it is an essential investment for the government.”

If poor countries are not vaccinated, studies show that rich countries will pay

Source link If poor countries are not vaccinated, studies show that rich countries will pay

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