Iranian hardliner Ebrahim Raisi becomes president under tension

Presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi makes a gesture after voting during the presidential election in Tehran, Iran, on June 18, 2021.

Majid Asgari Pool | WANA News Agency | Reuters

Iranian priest Ebrahim Raisi, as the new president of the Islamic Republic, is backed by challenging negotiations with the West on the resurgence of nuclear trade, domestic unrest, the surge in local nuclear development, and accusations of sabotage in the Gulf. I was pledged.

Earlier this week, loudly anti-Western and under US sanctions for human rights abuses, Raishi was given presidential final approval by Iran’s Almighty Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hamenei. He was elected in June and voted for many Iranians and Western advocates to cheat.

Approval from Khamenei followed a new maritime conflict in the Gulf waters between Iran and its Arab neighbors.

A Japanese-owned, Israeli-operated commercial tanker was hit by multiple drone strikes on the high seas along the Oman coast over the weekend. The United States, Britain and Israel have all blamed Iran. Two people, a Romanian and a British, were killed on board the ship.

Tehran has denied involvement, as has another tanker bout from the United Arab Emirates court this week. The ship was ordered to sail to Iran, but Iranian authorities denied any role in the seizure.

How far will the escalation go?

“The key question is what kind of retaliation could be imminent as the new hardline government, led by Ebrahim Raisi, prepares to take office in Tehran this week,” said RBC Capital Markets. Helimacroft, Head of Global Product Strategy and MENA Research, wrote: Be careful this week. “Washington is reportedly preparing another round of sanctions in response to Friday’s attack, but more dynamic reactions remain at the table.”

Protesters organized by supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) to protest the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raishi, outside Downing Street in central London on August 5, 2021. Raise the flag inside. Thousands of NCRI members were mass-executed in 1988.

ADRIAN DENNIS | AFP | Getty Images

Raisi is considered tougher and more anti-Western than its predecessor Hassan Rouhani, who oversaw the signing of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Agreements signed by several world powers, including the United States, have lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbing nuclear program. The United States unilaterally withdrew under the Trump administration in 2018, imposing drastic sanctions on Iran, which has crippled the economy.

“Among the expensive items [Raisi’s] The agenda will be talks aimed at reviving the nuclear deal that the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018. ” Lift the “despot” sanctions imposed by Washington.

Rapidly increased nuclear activity

This is because Tehran is increasing its stockpile and enrichment of uranium in a gradual breach of the 2015 agreement, which it states is in response to US sanctions.Iran announced in late May: It was enriched with uranium at 60%, A dramatic deviation from the 3.67% level permitted by the JCPOA.

In response to the news, International Atomic Energy Agency director Rafael Grossi warned that “countries enriched at 60% are a very serious problem, and only countries producing bombs have reached this level.” Ringed.

“60 percent is almost weapon-grade and commercial enrichment is a few. [percent]Iranian officials argue that enrichment is their sovereignty, core activity remains for peaceful purposes, and could retreat if the United States lifts sanctions.

The Biden administration has expressed support for the revival of the JCPOA as a pillar of foreign policy, but has refused to lift sanctions unless Iran regains its nuclear activity.

Richard Goldberg, senior adviser to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, DC, claims that attempts to trade Laisi with his government are bad news.

“The amount of spins and massages cannot cast a man carefully selected by the Supreme Leader to the next president as a moderate,” said Goldberg, who attended the National Security Council of former President Donald Trump. rice field. Please check on Tuesday.

“Laisi’s choice is just one of the many cues that the Supreme Leader sent to Biden this year, putting the sanctions Hamenei received from Washington in his pocket and fueling the war against the United States and its allies in the Islamic Republic. I have made it clear that I intend. “

Raisi will also face intense tensions in homes where Iranians in some states have been protesting deteriorating living conditions since mid-July. Since then, Rights groups have identified several murderers According to the National Security Forces.

“The main response of Iranian political leaders to a wide range of demands for fundamental rights is unrestrained repression,” said Tara Seperi Farr, an Iranian researcher at Human Rights Watch.

Israel-Iran “War of Shadows”

Following an increase in rivalry in the Gulf waters, Israel urged cooperative action against Iran and declared that it was not afraid to confront Iran many times in the past.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Thursday that Israel was ready to attack Iran.

“Whether last week’s attack heralds an intensification of Iran’s naval operations is very difficult to identify, especially as the details surrounding the case on Tuesday remain uncertain,” said political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. Written by Henry Roma, Director of Global Macro Research. Wednesday client email.

“The United States is also likely to accelerate existing plans to impose new sanctions related to Iran’s drone and missile programs, but in the end this could prove to be too little for Israel. Yes, Israel will find its own way of retaliation. It has been a year-long shadow war between two enemies on the threshold of an open conflict. “

Iranian hardliner Ebrahim Raisi becomes president under tension

Source link Iranian hardliner Ebrahim Raisi becomes president under tension

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