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Is this the beginning of the end of Jair Bolsonaro? | Andre Paris Arini

NSHere’s something pathetic about a leader who can’t recognize his limits. For months, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has argued that he could bend the democracy of Latin America’s largest country to his will, if he so desires.On September 7th, Brazil’s Independence Day, the president mobilized supporters Take me to the street.. Instead, it reveals the distance between Bolsonaro’s perception of reality and reality for the popular support he enjoys. With polls sunk and obstacles to expanding the party alliance, the president bet that he could force enough grassroots support to threaten political establishment. Especially the Supreme Court.. Not surprisingly, citing Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s novel The General in His Labyrinth, the president “couldn’t abandon his infinite fantasy abilities at the moment he needed the General in His Labyrinth most.” ..

Bolsonaro supporters and calm analysts also predicted a large flood of public support for the president’s continued efforts to undermine the democratic process. It was thought that September 7 could culminate in a takeover of the Supreme Court building, which resembled the noisy invasion of the US Capitol on January 6.Bolsonaro a few days before Independence Day Called The planned demonstration was an “ultimatum” for Supreme Court judges and ominously declared “preparing for war if peace is needed.”He also Innuendo In the constitutional “burst that neither I nor the people want”.

Why did Bolsonaro direct his anger at the judiciary instead of the legislature, as Donald Trump did?The Supreme Court, especially the judges of Alexander de Moraes and Luis Roberto Barroso investigating The president and people near him for anti-democratic behavior, including participating in a vast plot to spread fake news During the 2018 presidential election.. The court also refused to protect Bolsonaro’s sons. Almost all of them are involved in politics. From the survey.. Parliament, by comparison, is a friendly territory for Bolsonaro.

However, the alleged confrontation set on September 7 wanted Bolsonaro and his most ardent followers. Thousands of people have traveled to streets such as Brasilia, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, but far less than expected, to persuade other more cautious political actors to embark on a radical escape led by Bolsonaro. It was far from the required critical mass. History is not a guide to the future, but it can all be just as informative. The only Brazilian head of state to successfully carry out a “self-coup” to enhance his power was Geturio Vargas, an authoritarian politician believed to have laid the institutional foundations of modern Brazil.This is Bolsonaro, not the 1930s Not Vargas..

For one thing, Vargas frankly presented himself as the only rational actor in a system dominated by left and right extremists. In contrast, Bolsonaro preaches the most radical far-right ideas and framing his aggressive anti-institutionalism as the only way to break through a rigid and selfish political culture.Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaIn the meantime, he meets influential figures from the entire political spectrum, seeking to blunt the equivalence between himself and the president. Lula, a moderate former unionist who ruled for eight years, made a big difference in all polls, despite claiming she hadn’t decided to aim for the third term next year. Leading the flock. As a favorite to win next year’s presidential election, Lula talks about reconciliation and good governance. Bolsonaro and his allies point to the ghost of Lula’s return as the main reason for their continued political relevance. But the big problem for Bolsonaro is that his rhetorical campaign against the status quo is not as strong as 2018, when he rode a wave of anti-left hysteria and anti-political unrest over power.

Today, Bolsonaro (and his sons) is at the pinnacle of authority, but it seems unlikely that he will govern everything from pandemics to the environment, economy and diplomacy. In this context, his dissatisfaction seems more personal than political. Voter turnout on September 7 was, in part, much lower than expected. This is because most Brazilians are not currently investing in the battle of their choice. They simply do not share the president’s resentment towards individual members of other government agencies.

However, caution is needed in predicting the political end of Bolsonaro. After all, he still drove thousands of people out of the house and took him to the street during a pandemic. Indeed, many of his supporters reportedly were keen to further their protests and fall into violence like trumpist mobs. Those people will never leave and are arguably out of reach of other candidates competing for Bolsonaro’s replacement next year. The protracted and popular aftershock of Bolsonaro’s anti-democratic recommendations is a real source of concern. But we shouldn’t think too much about things. September 7 was a failure, compared to the expectations set by the president himself and his followers.

A few days after the overwhelming street protests, Bolsonaro appeared to have turned back, claiming he had no intention of ignoring Brazil’s separation of powers. Widely cursed former President Michel Temer eagerly aspired to return to political excellence and helped mediate the conversation between the President and Demolaes. So far, the political temperature has dropped, but this has come at the expense of Bolsonaro having some consequences for his actions. He will certainly continue to stir up the most dangerous impulses of Brazil’s body politic, but it’s hard to see September 7 as nothing more than the defeat of the president.

Is this the beginning of the end of Jair Bolsonaro? | Andre Paris Arini

Source link Is this the beginning of the end of Jair Bolsonaro? | Andre Paris Arini

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