“But rising prices for crude oil, food and fertilizers will put pressure on households and spending in the coming months,” rating agencies said in an update to the Global Macro Outlook Report.
Moody’s Investors Service recently lowered its 2022 growth forecast for India from 9.1% to 8.8% by 30 basis points. Rating agencies maintain their 2023 forecast at 5.4%. The momentum from the fourth quarter of 2021 continued until the first four months of the year due to the strong resumption momentum, he said.
Forecasts will rise again next month after data released on May 12 show that CPI inflation surged to a 95-month high of 7.79% in April. May be
Moody’s expects India’s inflation rate to drop from an average of 6.8% in 2022 to 5.2% in 2023.
“If we raise rates to prevent energy and food inflation from becoming more common, the momentum of demand recovery will slow, but the economy will remain strong unless global oil and food prices rise further. It seems strong enough to sustain growth momentum. ” News agency.
Moody’s lowering India’s growth forecast for 2022 is a broader downward revision of global growth as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the lockdown of the Zero-COVID policy in China contribute to supply shocks and boost inflation. Brought as part.
Moody’s now expects developed economies to grow 2.6% in 2022, up from the 3.2% forecast in March. Meanwhile, the emerging market economy is projected to grow 3.8% in 2022 from the previous forecast of 4.2%.
By 2023, the market economies of developed and emerging economies are expected to grow by 2.1% and 4.2%, respectively.
“Three significant developments will impact the macroeconomic situation over the next two years, one is the development of military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, two is the speed and extent of global monetary tightening, and Moody’s said. Three are the trajectories of the Chinese economy. “
The Chinese economy is expected to grow 4.5% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023, with some downside risks.
Fiber2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Moody’s lowers India’s GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 30 basis points
Source link Moody’s lowers India’s GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 30 basis points