Strange but true: The S&P 500 has consistently risen every cycle since 1954, 12 months after the midterm elections, regardless of which party wins or loses, according to Yardeni Research. His one-year average gain in the Broad Market Index over his 17 window after the election was about 15%. These facts come to our minds this Election Day as voters cast their ballots through a difficult year on Wall Street. Everyone is wondering when the current bear market will bottom out, or if it has already. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results. Many strategists now worry that inflation and recession fears will continue to weigh on equities. We recognize that an uncertain macro environment could complicate the usual post-interim upturn. Nonetheless, I think history is worth pointing out to members of the club, and how his 31 shares in the Jim Cramer Charitable Trust fared in the 12 months after the recent midterm elections. We wanted to analyze what was going on and magnify it through a club-specific lens. There are a few caveats. Looking only at the last five midterm elections (2018, 2014, 2010, 2006, 2002), which of the current club stocks has seen the biggest gain in his 12 months post-election? investigated which one. The average 12-month gain of the S&P 500 after these five elections is 8.3%. One limitation of the exercise is that not all stocks in the portfolio were publicly traded in all five of his election cycles. Salesforce (CRM) and Alphabet (GOOGL) went public in the summer of 2004, and Facebook’s parent company Meta Platforms (META) went public in May 2012. In red for each past cycle we’ve seen. This exercise is meant to show how far stocks have moved during these bullish cycles. 2018 Elections These are the five club stocks that made the biggest gains between November 6, 2018 (when the midterm elections were held) and November 6, 2019: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD ), Microsoft (MSFT), Qualcomm (QCOM), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Estee Lauder (EL). The S&P 500 rose 11.7% in that stretch. 2014 Election The S&P 500 rose 4.5% between 4 November 2014 and 4 November 2015. These are the five club stocks that have performed best over the last 12 months: Amazon (AMZN), Starbucks (SBUX), Constellation Brands (STZ), Nvidia (NVDA), and Meta Platform. 2010 Election Between November 2, 2010 and November 2, 2011, the S&P 500 rose 3.7%. These are the club’s top five performers during that period: Estée Lauder, Starbucks (SBUX), Humana (HUM), Bausch Health (BHC) and Costco Wholesale (COST). Note: This list does not include Coterra Energy (CTRA), which jumped 163% in the 12 months after the 2010 midterm elections. The company was then known as Cabot Oil & Gas. In 2021, it will be rebranded to Cotera following a merger of equal shares with Simarex Energy. 2006 Elections The S&P 500 rose 6.7% between November 7, 2006 and November 7, 2007. These five club names posted the biggest gains in the last 12 months: Apple (AAPL), Amazon, Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Nvidia Alphabet, the parent company of Google. 2002 Elections In the last five mid-cycles, the S&P 500 posted its largest 12-month gain, from 5 November 2002 to 6 November 2003, up 14.9%. Amazon, AMD, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Humana and Wynn Resorts are the top performing club holdings in the range. The Club’s Final Thoughts Only Apple, the biggest winner in the 2006 cycle, and Honeywell (HON) beat the S&P 500 in each of the 12-month windows after the midterm elections. Top 5 by individual annual span. Interestingly, five club holdings (Apple, Amazon, Honeywell, Costco, Estee Lauder) have been positive in the 12 months after the midterms in each of the past five election cycles. Finally, the 12-month performance following a particular event (in this case, the midterm elections) is only a snapshot in time and does not necessarily reflect the state of the company’s underlying business during that period. It is worth reminding everyone that A wide range of factors, some company-specific and others of a more macro nature, influence how stocks are traded in the short term. But in the long run, the best companies tend to get a return from the market. (For a complete list of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust stocks, see here.) Jim Cramer’s subscribers to his CNBC Investing Club receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling shares in his charitable trust portfolio. If Jim talks about his stock on his CNBC TV, he will wait 72 hours after issuing a trade alert before executing the trade. The investment club information above is subject to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, along with our disclaimer. No fiduciary duty or obligation exists or is created by your receipt of any information provided in connection with The Investment Club. No specific results or benefits are guaranteed.
People walk in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street in New York City on July 12, 2022.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
Strange but true: S&P 500 According to Yardeni Research, since 1954, voter turnout has been consistently high in every cycle 12 months after the midterm elections, regardless of which party wins or loses. His one-year average gain of broad his market his index in his 17 window after the election was about 15%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/08/midterm-election-rallies-club-names-that-have-been-big-winners-before.html Name of the club that won big in the past
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