NATO is planning its future as Donald Trump is gone

“OhVER THE Over the last four years, there have been some challenges in cross-Atlantic relationships, “says Jason Stoltenberg. NATOSecretary-General, hinting at the diplomatic turmoil of the Trump era. Now he says, “There is a unique opportunity to open a new chapter in North American-European relations.” But, NATODo leaders take it?

June 14th, leaders of all 30 NATO Members were convened for a conference in Brussels GWith the highest peaks of the Seven Summits in the UK EUWe Summit. They will discuss the future of the alliance. After Mr. Trump physically attacks one prime minister, threatens to leave the alliance, and is ridiculed by fellow leaders, he will feel better than in past rallies that went wild early.But the challenges facing NATO It has not disappeared with the arrival of Mr. Biden.

In recent months, Russia has rallyed troops around Ukraine, Belarus has forced European airliners to seize dissidents, and the United States has announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. This process was more than half completed by June 8. NATO Follow it. But the point of the summit is to change the direction of the alliance in a more radical way.

NATOA document explaining the strategic concept of Raison d’êêêêTrainingWas last updated over a decade ago when Russia was a potential partner and China was supposed to be irrelevant. In Brussels, leaders order Stoltenberg to create a new version. This process can take up to a year.It reflects the spread of NATOAn opening to embrace new challenges such as climate change, technological threats and the rise of China.

Things are already changing. Stoltenberg points out more exercises, including increased European defense spending (see graph) and ongoing large-scale training involving an army of 9,000 people and both. British and French aircraft carriersThe alliance is also busy rethinking the basics of military power. We are creating a new strategy for artificial intelligence and have completed a new cyber defense policy for the first time in seven years. At the summit, leaders will set up a “Transatlantic Technology Accelerator” to connect cutting-edge military technology suppliers to investors.

one of NATOAccording to Stoltenberg, the motivation for this technological revitalization is the fear that China, a “country that does not share our values,” is moving forward in key areas such as artificial intelligence. “It’s not clear that we will maintain our technological advantage … it was never the case in the Soviet Union during the Cold War,” he adds. China’s debate is a crucial moment, says Tim Sale, author of the “Permanent Alliance.” NATO, Marks “a fundamental break with what the Alliance has done in the first 70 years.”

But the biggest question of all is whether it was the turmoil that the transatlantic rift under Mr. Trump passed through, or was it longer lasting.Biden spoke warmly and made the right noise NATO And it reversed Mr. Trump’s troop cuts in Germany. His eight-day trip to Europe culminates in a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 16 in Geneva. In theory, Putin by banning groups related to his main political rival, Alexei Navalny, who was imprisoned on June 9, after Biden formed a common front with his allies. Allows you to face.

But Mr Biden cannot soothe all his friends at once. See the Nord Stream 2 example (NS2) Almost completed gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Bypass Ukraine and increase Europe’s dependence on Mr Putin. The Biden administration was opposed to the project, but said on May 19 that it would still waive sanctions. It pleased the German government, but surprised those who preferred a stricter approach to Russia. “The mood of Central Europe as a whole is NS“Two decisions,” said Michalbaranovski, an expert at the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Foundation, an American think tank. “Emotion is one of the betrayals.”

Then there is the fact that the European defense landscape has changed irreparably in recent years.The impact of Mr. Trump’s election and Britain’s withdrawal EU From joint defense projects to a common fund for the defense industry, it catalyzed a surge in block activity.

Many European officials have longed to maintain the momentum that such plans gained during the Trump era, bearing in mind the radical transformation of the American Republican Party and the prospects of Mr Biden’s successor populist. I am.Many are complementary NATO,Such EU Efforts to make it easier for troops to move across continents. In reality, the element of competition is inevitable. In response to Stoltenberg’s request for an increase in a common funding pool NATO— It hasn’t changed since 2014 — France’s Defense Minister Florence Parly argued that “all this money is not spent on increasing national budgets and European defense efforts.”

In addition, European officials know that all US presidents, including Mr. Biden, have a lot to worry about. Although America’s military presence in Europe remains significant, its latest weapons are now usually the first to be sent to the Pacific Ocean. So do the officials. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of State Lloyd Austin’s first overseas trip was to Asia. “Washington has a lot of skepticism that split selfish Europe will ever manage a lot of support. We “Efforts for China,” argues another think tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations, Jeremy Shapiro.

Still, the geopolitics of Europe and Asia are inevitably intertwined. In particular, the 2018 US defense strategy explicitly abolished the requirement that a country be able to fight two wars at the same time. “We urgently need Europeans NATO Former U.S. official Wes Mitchell, who co-chaired Mr. Stoltenberg’s expert committee last year, said “to further handle the traditional deterrent burden in Europe.” .. You can focus on China without questioning the stability of European theaters. After seeing off Mr. Trump NATO There is no time to rest in that glory.

This article was published in the printed European section under the heading “Summit Season”.

NATO is planning its future as Donald Trump is gone

Source link NATO is planning its future as Donald Trump is gone

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