Tampa, Florida 2021-07-23 16:02:02 –
Tampa Bay, Florida — New figures from USF researchers show that the fight against COVID-19 is not over yet. According to reports, the number of cases is expected to skyrocket in Hillsborough County. This contributes to a longer timeline to reach herd immunity.
And if this trajectory continues, the state will reach herd immunity before the county.
“This isn’t over,” said Dr. Edwin Michael.
Dr. Michael knows the highs and lows of a pandemic. He has been tracking data since March 2020. He wanted a quick termination after the vaccine was imminent.
“People are surprised.’Hey, you predicted it was all over a month ago,'” he said. “Which is true at the time?”
His new figures show that Hillsborough County is heading for a three-fold surge in COVID-19 infections than it saw in the winter of 2020.
“When I saw those numbers, I was afraid.’Look, we have to warn people,'” said Dr. Michael.
According to a study by Dr. Michael, Hillsborough County vaccinated about 2,000 people a day. According to the Ministry of Health, 54% of eligible people in the county are vaccinated. Dr. Michael says the next surge will only be among unvaccinated people.
Studies show that Delta and Alpha are so contagious that there are an estimated 2,800 cases per day in Hillsborough County in September. The county bed capacity is 4,100. These beds are also for patients who need to be hospitalized for other reasons. Dr. Michael states that this trend will occur throughout the state.
“By the end of September, peak cases will exceed 59,000 and will require hospitalization,” he said.
But if those people survive, they will contribute to an important timeline.
“Big cities are cities that allow the entire state to reach herd immunity, but at the expense of infection,” said Dr. Michael.
If Florida continues at current immunization rates, the state will reach herd immunity by early September. In Hillsborough County, that didn’t happen until November 1.
However, Dr. Michael’s chart shows that if vaccination doubles, the state will reach herd immunity by August 15 and Hillsborough County will reach that threshold by October 22. increase.
“vaccination [are] “But you have to vaccinate people quickly, which can reduce the time to new variants,” said Dr. Michael.
Doctor ,. Michael says the best way to avoid an outbreak of infection is to re-implement the COVID-19 protocol, like how California reinstates mask obligations regardless of a person’s vaccination status. Another way is to increase vaccination. Immunization rates in Hillsborough County have fallen by 70% since April.
New USF research shows lagging vaccinations, variants will cause COVID-19 infections to spike in Hillsborough County Source link New USF research shows lagging vaccinations, variants will cause COVID-19 infections to spike in Hillsborough County