Portland, Oregon 2021-10-21 12:52:44 –
(NEXSTAR) – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate experts summarize what they believe is the most likely weather pattern we will see regarding temperature, rain, snow and La Niña this winter. I did.
The agency has announced its winter outlook for the 2021-22 season: The La Niña phenomenon begins to take root 2 years in a row.
Before jumping into forecasts, John Gottschalck, head of NOAA’s Operations Forecasts branch, reminds everyone that this outlook is probabilistic. “Other results are possible, but unlikely,” he said.
Here’s what NOAA predicts about winter weather across the country:
NOAA predicts warmer than average winters in most parts of the country. The South and Gulf Coast are most likely to have warmer winters than usual. Many in the Southwest, Midwest and Northeast can also expect warmer winters.
Colder than average winters can occur in the Pacific Northwest, Montana, and the western half of Dakota.
Northern California, Wyoming, and Minnesota seem to have normal temperatures.
Precipitation (rain and snow)
The Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions are most likely to have more than average rainy winters this year. Precipitation can also increase in northern Rocky Mountains, New York, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, and parts of Missouri.
The southern half of the country is looking at drier conditions, especially in the southwest, Florida, and southern Georgia.
The rest of the country should expect an average amount of rain or snow.
This precipitation forecast has much to do with La Niña, which is already taking root.
La Niña and drought
According to Gottschalk, the La Niña phenomenon is projected to affect the country’s winter weather for the second consecutive year.
According to Gottschalk, this year’s La Niña will be a medium (or upper limit) La Niña pattern. This indicates that winters are rainy in the Midwest and parts of the Tennessee Valley, but dry in the southern United States.
The southwestern drought appears to be particularly exacerbated. In the southwest, the drought situation is projected to worsen in the coming months.
But things are looking for the Pacific Northwest, said Brad Pew, NOAA’s operational drought leader. “The strongest confidence to improve drought conditions” is found in the Pacific Northwest, Pew said, where the next two weeks already seem to bring a lot of rain.
California is split in two by the La Niña pattern, bringing more rainfall to Northern California and less than normal rainfall to Southern California, but it is difficult to accurately predict where that line will fall.
Droughts are not a major issue in the South, Midwest and Northeast this year.
NOAA releases winter weather predictions: Here’s what to expect Source link NOAA releases winter weather predictions: Here’s what to expect