Iran’s embarrassed voters don’t have many options in this Friday’s presidential election.The administration, dominated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is fiercely anti-Western conservative and ironically. Operated the contest To ensure that like-minded hardliners, perhaps the head of the judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi, will win.
The result is little cliffhanger, but the impact can still be widespread in Iran and internationally.Probably negative consequences for peaceful relations with talks on curbing Iran’s nuclear program Israel, Saudi Arabia and the West, wars in Syria and Yemen, geopolitical balance, and worrisome for Iran’s own citizens.
The Iranians have never been fully served by fundamentalists who hijacked the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Rich in human talent, culture, history and resources, this extraordinary country is under terribly false rule.Still the problem is Bad because bad Mainly thanks to incompetent and corrupt leadership and American malice since the last presidential election in 2017.
Efforts by Hassan RouhaniThe current centrist president is decisively weakened in 2018, when Donald Trump opposes a UN-approved nuclear deal with Tehran and imposes punitive sanctions to improve relations with the West. It became. The collapse has bolded hardliners who already controlled major ministries and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Subsequent serious economic problems and associated social unrest faced deadly crackdowns on protesters and civil society activists, especially in 2019. Due to the execution of political opponents and the increase in imprisonment.And by the growing hostility of anti-Western Europe, illustrated by Raishi’s inhumane treatment. Innocent dual citizenship Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe etc.
All this naturally had a chilling effect on democratic involvement, especially among young Iranians desperate for positive change.Election turnout is projected to fall below 40% due to social media posts Encourage boycott Under the hashtag “No Way IVote”. Low participation will undermine the credibility of the administration, but hardliners will not lose sleep anymore.
By modifying the elections, Khamenei, the Supreme Leader since 1989 and now 82, is his religiously and ideologically defined ideal of a devout “Islamic society” that has wiped out secular and western pollution. Is approaching the achievement of.He is aiming for a project Iran as a model For Muslim-dominated countries around the world. The aide talks about the need to “purify the revolution.”
This old man’s dream is extremely dangerous. If his disciple Raishi wins, he is expected to expand Khamenei’s policy of cramming the government with supporters from the IRGC and the Basij paramilitary organization. Expectations for domestic reforms and new starts in Europe and Saudi Arabia, boosted by recent informal contacts, may be shattered. Instead, Tehran will probably approach China and Russia.
It is also indirect negotiations with the United States that are at stake. Nuclear trading, We are approaching the climax in Vienna this week. Washington has proposed partial lifting of sanctions in exchange for new Iranian compliance. But Rouhani’s last-minute success would not be suitable for many hardliners. If negotiations collapse, like the Israeli hawks, they will be happy.
By the way, this week’s long-awaited defenestration of the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu The formation of a new government in Jerusalem has little effect on relieving tensions. Whoever is responsible, Israel continues to commit to a semi-secret shadow war, as evidenced by recent attacks on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.
If it wins on Friday, Iranian hardliners are expected to continue and could put pressure on Israel through agents in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon. Boosted by success, they can urge Hamas to resume hostilities, cause more problems in the Gulf, and rekindle smoldering conflicts in Yemen.Recent Shiite militia Drone attack The US military in Iraq points to another area of potential escalation.
Perhaps such concerns are exaggerated. I hope so. But the tragedy of this election again shows an unpleasant truth. For all the hostility directed at it from abroad, Iran It remains its own worst enemy.
Observer’s View on Iran’s Unauthorized Presidential Election | Observer Editorial
Source link Observer’s View on Iran’s Unauthorized Presidential Election | Observer Editorial