Option Volatility and Earnings Report for August 14 – 18

Earnings season is starting to slow down, but we still have a few big names reporting including Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE) and Home Depot (HD).

Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the market is unsure about the outcome of the report. Speculators and hedgers create huge demand for the company’s options which increases the implied volatility, and therefore, the price of options.

After the earnings announcement, implied volatility usually drops back down to normal levels. 

Let’s take a look at the expected range for these stocks. To calculate the expected range, look up the option chain and add together the price of the at-the-money put option and the at-the-money call option. Use the first expiry date after the earnings date. While this approach is not as accurate as a detailed calculation, it does serve as a reasonably accurate estimate.

Monday

SU – 4.2%

Tuesday

HD – 3.9%

NU – 9.2%

ONON – 12.8%

SE – 15.3%

Wednesday

CSCO – 4.7%

JD – 7.7%

TGT – 7.7%

TJX – 4.1%

Thursday

AMAT – 5.6%

BILL – 15.0%

WMT – 3.7%

Friday

DE – 4.6%

EL – 7.2%

PANW – 9.9%

Option traders can use these expected moves to structure trades. Bearish traders can look at selling bear call spreads outside the expected range.

Bullish traders can sell bull put spreads outside the expected range, or look at naked puts for those with a higher risk tolerance. 

Neutral traders can look at iron condors. When trading iron condors over earnings, it is best to keep the short strikes outside the expected range. 

When trading options over earnings, it is best to stick to risk defined strategies and keep position size small. If the stock makes a larger than expected move and the trade suffers a full loss, it should not have more than a 1-3% effect on your portfolio.

Stocks With High Implied Volatility

We can use Barchart’s Stock Screener to find other stocks with high implied volatility.

Let’s run thestock screenerwith the following filters:

Total call volume: Greater than 2,000Market Cap: Greater than 40 billionIV Percentile: Greater than 70%

This screener produces the following results sorted by IV Percentile. 

You can refer to this article for details of how to find option trades for this earnings season. 

Last Week’s Earnings Moves

Last week’s actual versus expected moves are shown below:

PLTR -5.3% vs 15.5% expected

KKR +2.7% vs 4.4% expected

LCID -12.2% vs 14.2% expected

UPS -0.9% vs 5.6% expected

LLY +14.9% vs 5.2% expected

DDOG -17.2% vs 9.7% expected

UPST -34.2% vs 23.9% expected

RIVN -9.9% vs 13.3% expected

TWLO +2.2% vs 13.0% expected

MARA -1.3% vs 10.2% expected

RBLX -21.9% vs 13.9% expected

DIS +4.9% vs 6.1% expected

PLUG -15.8% vs 11.9% expected

TTD -4.7% vs 10.9% expected

PENN +9.1% vs 10.8% expected

BABA +4.6% vs 6.5% expected

Overall, there were 11 out of 16 that stayed within the expected range.

Changes In Open Interest

JNJ, F, AMZN, DIS, SOFI and AMC saw some of the largest changes in open interest last week.

Other stocks with large changes in open interest are shown below:

Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment. This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Summarize this content to 100 words
Earnings season is starting to slow down, but we still have a few big names reporting including Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE) and Home Depot (HD).Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the market is unsure about the outcome of the report. Speculators and hedgers create huge demand for the company’s options which increases the implied volatility, and therefore, the price of options.

After the earnings announcement, implied volatility usually drops back down to normal levels. Let’s take a look at the expected range for these stocks. To calculate the expected range, look up the option chain and add together the price of the at-the-money put option and the at-the-money call option. Use the first expiry date after the earnings date. While this approach is not as accurate as a detailed calculation, it does serve as a reasonably accurate estimate.MondaySU – 4.2%TuesdayHD – 3.9%NU – 9.2%ONON – 12.8%SE – 15.3%WednesdayCSCO – 4.7%JD – 7.7%TGT – 7.7%TJX – 4.1%ThursdayAMAT – 5.6%BILL – 15.0%WMT – 3.7%FridayDE – 4.6%EL – 7.2%PANW – 9.9%Option traders can use these expected moves to structure trades. Bearish traders can look at selling bear call spreads outside the expected range.Bullish traders can sell bull put spreads outside the expected range, or look at naked puts for those with a higher risk tolerance. Neutral traders can look at iron condors. When trading iron condors over earnings, it is best to keep the short strikes outside the expected range. 

When trading options over earnings, it is best to stick to risk defined strategies and keep position size small. If the stock makes a larger than expected move and the trade suffers a full loss, it should not have more than a 1-3% effect on your portfolio.Stocks With High Implied VolatilityWe can use Barchart’s Stock Screener to find other stocks with high implied volatility.Let’s run thestock screenerwith the following filters:Total call volume: Greater than 2,000Market Cap: Greater than 40 billionIV Percentile: Greater than 70%This screener produces the following results sorted by IV Percentile. You can refer to this article for details of how to find option trades for this earnings season. Last Week’s Earnings MovesLast week’s actual versus expected moves are shown below:PLTR -5.3% vs 15.5% expectedKKR +2.7% vs 4.4% expectedLCID -12.2% vs 14.2% expectedUPS -0.9% vs 5.6% expectedLLY +14.9% vs 5.2% expectedDDOG -17.2% vs 9.7% expectedUPST -34.2% vs 23.9% expectedRIVN -9.9% vs 13.3% expectedTWLO +2.2% vs 13.0% expectedMARA -1.3% vs 10.2% expectedRBLX -21.9% vs 13.9% expectedDIS +4.9% vs 6.1% expectedPLUG -15.8% vs 11.9% expectedTTD -4.7% vs 10.9% expectedPENN +9.1% vs 10.8% expectedBABA +4.6% vs 6.5% expectedOverall, there were 11 out of 16 that stayed within the expected range.

Changes In Open InterestJNJ, F, AMZN, DIS, SOFI and AMC saw some of the largest changes in open interest last week.Other stocks with large changes in open interest are shown below:
Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment. This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.More Stock Market News from Barchart

Cracking the Currency Code: Analyzing Seasonal Patterns and the Future of the British Pound

Stocks Weighed Down by Stronger U.S. PPI and Higher Bond Yields

Is This “Overlooked” EV Stock Still a Buy After Nearly Doubling in 2023?

How to Play the Pullback in Microsoft Stock
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/option-volatility-and-earnings-report-for-august-14-18 Option Volatility and Earnings Report for August 14 – 18

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