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Trump believes his arrest helped his presidential chances.He’s Wrong | Robert Reich

In February, Ron DeSantis led Donald Trump 45% to 41%. Yahoo/YouGov pollBut Trump’s indictment reversed the race.

Shortly after Trump said he would be arrested, he jumped to the top — 47% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters backed him, compared to 39% for DeSantis. Now, after arraignment, Trump’s lead has stretched from his 57% to his 31%.

what happened?Trump’s high-decibel roars of anger and frustration converge with the acrimonious accusations of his “deep state” opponents Republican on his side.

He enraged at his indictment by evoking his words. racist and anti-semite conspiracy theory.he has whip up the anger of threat To judges, prosecutors, and their families. And, of course, he keeps repeating the lie that the 2020 election was stolen.

But the fuss doesn’t increase Trump’s odds of being elected president in November 2024. On the contrary, he lowers the odds.

Only about 28% of American voters identify as Republicans. And once Republicans return to Trump, another group of voters likely to decide the outcome of the 2024 election will be daunted by his acerbicness.

I’m talking about independents.

People who call themselves independents make up more than 40% of American voters. That’s a bigger percentage than any self-proclaimed Republican or Democrat.

This independent proportion of the voter population is increasing as young people do not belong to either political party.

You wouldn’t know any of these things from the media’s political coverage, which is focused almost entirely on the deep and bitter conflict between red and blue America.

Independents are not necessarily moderates. They simply hate angry partisanship.

Independents also oppose Republican stances on abortion, transgender rights, gun control, and the climate.

Wisconsin has about the same number of voters registered Democratic and registered Republicans, and independents make all the difference.

Judge Janet Protashevich’s victory last Tuesday — which changed control of the state’s Supreme Court to liberal for the first time in 15 years — likely swayed independents who support abortion rights and oppose the state’s radical gerrymandering. It is due to

Nationwide, independents helped prevent a “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections (albeit by a narrow margin of 49% vs. 47%) and hold the White House in the midterms. It broke the tendency to vote against political parties.

why? Because most independents hate Trump as much as Democrats and are against everything Trump has given America.

In 2020, independents favored Biden over Trump, 52% to 37%.

Certainly, independents were less enthusiastic about Mr. Biden. They are worried about the economy and, like other voters, tend to blame or credit Oval Office residents for economic performance.

With Trump’s star fading and DeSantis’ brilliance rising, it seemed likely that some independents could be lured back into the Republican Party in 2024.

Trump’s indictment, perhaps on the heels of others, is a reminder to independents of Trump’s widespread assault on democracy, which culminated on January 6, 2021.

Four weeks after the attacks, so many voters abandoned the Republican Party that about 50% of Americans identified as temporarily independent.

Trump’s recent inflammatory posts and speeches are reminding independents that he represents everything they hate most about American politics.

So as soon as Trump embarks on the race for the Republican nomination, he alienates key independent voters in the general election.

The prospect of DeSantis and Biden going head-to-head in 2024 may not seem as terrifying as the Trump-Biden showdown, but for Americans, including independents, who favor democracy over dictatorship, the latter wins. Probability is high.

Summarize this content to 100 words In February, Ron DeSantis led Donald Trump 45% to 41%. Yahoo/YouGov pollBut Trump’s indictment reversed the race.Shortly after Trump said he would be arrested, he jumped to the top — 47% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters backed him, compared to 39% for DeSantis. Now, after arraignment, Trump’s lead has stretched from his 57% to his 31%.what happened?Trump’s high-decibel roars of anger and frustration converge with the acrimonious accusations of his “deep state” opponents Republican on his side.He enraged at his indictment by evoking his words. racist and anti-semite conspiracy theory.he has whip up the anger of threat To judges, prosecutors, and their families. And, of course, he keeps repeating the lie that the 2020 election was stolen.But the fuss doesn’t increase Trump’s odds of being elected president in November 2024. On the contrary, he lowers the odds.Only about 28% of American voters identify as Republicans. And once Republicans return to Trump, another group of voters likely to decide the outcome of the 2024 election will be daunted by his acerbicness.I’m talking about independents.People who call themselves independents make up more than 40% of American voters. That’s a bigger percentage than any self-proclaimed Republican or Democrat.This independent proportion of the voter population is increasing as young people do not belong to either political party.You wouldn’t know any of these things from the media’s political coverage, which is focused almost entirely on the deep and bitter conflict between red and blue America.Independents are not necessarily moderates. They simply hate angry partisanship.Independents also oppose Republican stances on abortion, transgender rights, gun control, and the climate.Wisconsin has about the same number of voters registered Democratic and registered Republicans, and independents make all the difference.Judge Janet Protashevich’s victory last Tuesday — which changed control of the state’s Supreme Court to liberal for the first time in 15 years — likely swayed independents who support abortion rights and oppose the state’s radical gerrymandering. It is due toNationwide, independents helped prevent a “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections (albeit by a narrow margin of 49% vs. 47%) and hold the White House in the midterms. It broke the tendency to vote against political parties.why? Because most independents hate Trump as much as Democrats and are against everything Trump has given America.In 2020, independents favored Biden over Trump, 52% to 37%.Certainly, independents were less enthusiastic about Mr. Biden. They are worried about the economy and, like other voters, tend to blame or credit Oval Office residents for economic performance.With Trump’s star fading and DeSantis’ brilliance rising, it seemed likely that some independents could be lured back into the Republican Party in 2024.Trump’s indictment, perhaps on the heels of others, is a reminder to independents of Trump’s widespread assault on democracy, which culminated on January 6, 2021.Four weeks after the attacks, so many voters abandoned the Republican Party that about 50% of Americans identified as temporarily independent.Trump’s recent inflammatory posts and speeches are reminding independents that he represents everything they hate most about American politics.So as soon as Trump embarks on the race for the Republican nomination, he alienates key independent voters in the general election.The prospect of DeSantis and Biden going head-to-head in 2024 may not seem as terrifying as the Trump-Biden showdown, but for Americans, including independents, who favor democracy over dictatorship, the latter wins. Probability is high.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/11/trump-arrest-republican-nomination-2024-independents Trump believes his arrest helped his presidential chances.He’s Wrong | Robert Reich

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