When Ebrahim Raisi first challenged the Iranian president in 2017, the gloomy conservative clergy were severely defeated and ambitious to lock their hopes into the Republic’s nuclear deal to open the country. I couldn’t beat the voters.
Four years later, the collapse of the 2015 agreement Iran signed with the world powers, the declining economic crisis caused by U.S. sanctions, disillusioned voters, and the administration’s determination to bring hard-liners back into power are on his way. Open Election victory With 62 percent of the votes.
But for many inside and outside the Republic, his victory leaves a mark of Pyrrhic victory.
More than half of voters chose not to vote for what reformers described as a rare act of civil disobedience. Voter turnout of 48.8% is the lowest in the history of Islamic republic, with 3.7 million people choosing to ruin ballots and voting for both of Raishi’s rivals.
“The message of the election is that the opposition is much larger than the supporters of Raishi,” said reformist activist Hossein Yazid.
Many who were away from the polls assumed that the results were pre-determined after authorities banned the candidacy of major reformist candidates. Attorney General Raisi, backed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, widely believes that hardliners used elections to regain control of all important branches of the state for the first time in almost a decade. Was being done.
Analysts said Raishi’s victory made it more likely that 82-year-old Khamenei would take over as his supreme leader in death. But only if he can overcome the challenges he has inherited: sanctions and the coronavirus-stricken economy, and a polarized society vulnerable to anxiety.
His supporters hope to be able to end the conflict of factions that devastated the administration during President Hassan Rouhani’s second and final term ending in August. Unity and smooth inheritance within the theocracy system, where the centers of power compete, are considered Khamenei’s priorities. These objectives have become more urgent as the Republic has endured the most turbulent times since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
“One country, one team, one goal” was one of Raishi’s election slogans.
“I believe in Raishi because he is 100 percent in line with leadership,” said an insider of the administration. “Parliament, leadership, justice-they will all line up and do better.”
Iran’s recent fatigue was triggered by Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the nuclear deal. He imposed devastating sanctions on individuals, including the Republic and Laisi, strangled Iran’s oil export capacity and plunged it into recession.
The turmoil has bolded hardliners and shattered the dreams of the 24 million Iranians who voted for Rouhani in 2017, hoping that the nuclear deal would usher in change and prosperity.
Their disillusionment fell into the hands of Raishi. His conservative supporters listened to the leader’s call for votes while the reformers were at home.
Therefore, although he has won an overwhelming technical victory, he faces serious challenges without the powerful and popular mission of his predecessor.
“Raishi has entered a losing game. In the eyes of the public, whether right or wrong, his victory was pre-determined,” said a reformist analyst. “This makes people angry.”
Others fear that hardliners may even downplay and suppress democratic activists.
“There will definitely be oppression of those who support democratization,” activist Yazid said.
There have long been concerns about Raisi’s human rights records. While Tehran is negotiating with the world’s major powers to return the United States to a nuclear deal and reach an deal to lift sanctions, it can now undermine his credibility at home and abroad.
President Joe Biden said he would rejoin the deal if Iran fully complied with the deal. However, the new government will be led by a man who accused the Trump administration of overseeing executions, “torture of prisoners and other inhumane treatment” when sanctioning Raishi in 2019.
He was allegedly involved in the execution of thousands of political prisoners when he was a prosecutor in the late 1980s. He has not commented on that period.
The path to the pinnacle of Raishi, born into a priestly family, was revealed five years ago when Khamenei nominated him as the caretaker of the Imamreza Shrine in his hometown of Mashad.
After Khamenei was appointed head of the judiciary in 2019, one of the main centers of hardline power, he used that post to give him, even among some critics. Launched a crusade against corruption that brought praise. However, others saw this move as a resumption of his political ambitions.
During the campaign, he provided few policy details, but said domestic issues were his priority. He sought to appeal to Iranians suffering from financial difficulties, sometimes referring to his own modest upbringing.
“I not only knew poverty, but also experienced poverty,” he reiterated.
He mentions foreign policy for only a brief moment, and few expect major changes, such as Iran’s hostility to the United States, support for regional militant groups, and expansion of missile programs.
Unlike Rouhani, Raisi has little exposure abroad and regional policies and major security decisions are made by Khamenei.
Analysts added that he was probably less radical than Iran’s last hardline president, Mahmood Ahmadhi Nehad. His first term was characterized by exaggerated riots against the United States and Israel and expensive and populist domestic policies that caused economic turmoil.
But even conservatives admit that Raishi faces a difficult mission.
“It’s not unlikely that Raishi’s terminology will be similar to Ahmaddy Nehad’s or Rouhani’s terminology. [chaotic last years]”Conservative analyst Mohammad Mohageri said. “Iran’s political ship is very rocking.”
Raishi’s victory secures Iran’s hardline control
Source link Raishi’s victory secures Iran’s hardline control