Riverside, California 2021-09-11 08:01:08 –
Austin — The big headline for Texas, born from the 2020 census, was that the state continued for decades, perhaps even accelerating, at the top of a growing mountain.
But if you peel off just one or two layers of the onion, you’ll find that the headline doesn’t apply to more than half of Texas’ vast land. In fact, of the 254 counties in the state, 143 (all rural) have been declining since 2010.
The Texas population explosion between 2010 and 2020 occurred primarily in a relatively small section of the state’s geography. The metropolitan areas of the state’s largest cities, Houston, Dallas / Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin. The rest of Texas remained trapped in the mud.
Declining population can economically devastate communities and regions. Fewer people shop at local stores. This will reduce the number of stores that shop. This will increase the number of people shopping away from the town and will probably leave the town forever.
Politically, it means lost influence in both Austin and Washington. And as Congress immerses itself, starting September 20, it’s easy to see where its lost influence will manifest itself. Task to redraw boundaries For the Texas House of Representatives and Senate, the US House of Representatives and the State Board of Education.
Census data Texas Demographic Center In almost all state capitol districts outside the city center, and less dramatically in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, less than 194,000 people are needed to nearly equalize the population of all 150 districts. Indicates that.
That is, rural Texas currently has about half of the House district. After the constituency change, less than half a dozen districts can be devastated by metropolitan areas.
The first blush may suggest bad news for Republicans running in the redrawn Republican region, but it could still be a solid Republican district in the 2022 election cycle. .. After all, in the 2018-2020 cycle, we found that Democrats were moving ballots up and down in fast-growing urban and suburban centers.
But let’s get back to the onion peeling practice. Texas on the outskirts of the city has grown significantly, but the growth has not been uniform. Demographic Center data show that six Houston Democrats represent districts with less than 194,000. Conversely, the five nearby Republican districts are overcrowded.
In short, Republicans in the state legislature who oversee the constituency change process may seek ways to carve out GOP constituencies from their ropes and shoehorn in the Democratic region. And it may allow Republicans to turn over one or two districts. According to data from the Center for Demographics, such a strategy can be reproduced in D-FW and Austin San Antonio.
Democrats who have their own subdivision cartography experts preparing for a deadly battle to protect their territory do not have a generous Republican constituency in their suburban Republican districts. May insist.
After the constituency change process based on the 2010 census, Republicans Almost bulletproof 95-55 state capitol majority.. After just four election cycles, the Democrats reduced the Republican power to 83 by systematically gaining power in the suburbs.
And that wasn’t just because Democrats succeeded in devising a message appealing to being predominantly white voters in Texas’ commuter towns for decades.Census data show that Texas is now within 56 after adding another 4 million souls to its population The last 10 years. Of them, 2.6 million identified themselves as Hispanic or black. Less than 190,000 self-identified as non-Hispanic Caucasians.
It is a well-known fact that voters, although their voting habits are not monolithic, have fixed the foundation of the Democratic Party.
The data further show that rural Texas has been relatively flat since 2010, while urban and suburban centers are becoming more diverse. Dominated the Texas countryside.
Therefore, Republican map drawers must be creative enough to enhance their current dominance at the Texas House. Alternatively, it can be stored for the next 10 years.
John C. Moritz is responsible for Texas Government and Politics at the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org and follow him on Twitter @JohnnieMo..
Rural Texas lost population in 2020; now it might lose political clout Source link Rural Texas lost population in 2020; now it might lose political clout