According to a new reassessment of the 1970s report, human society is on a path of collapse over the next two decades, unless there are serious changes in world priorities. Sub-report
In that report — featured in a best-selling book “Growth limits“(1972) — A team of MIT scientists argued that industrial civilization would collapse if businesses and governments continued to pursue continuous economic growth, regardless of cost, researchers said. Predicted possible scenarios, most of which predicted points. Where natural resources are so scarce, further economic growth is impossible, and personal welfare plummets.
The report’s most notorious scenario, the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, predicts that global economic growth will peak around the 2040s and then plummet with global population, food availability and natural resources. Was there. The team wrote that this imminent “collapse” would not be the end of mankind, but rather a social turning point in which living standards would decline around the world for decades.
Relation: How much time did humanity leave?
So what is the outlook for society today, about half a century after MIT researchers shared their predictions? Gaya Herrington, a researcher in sustainability and dynamic systems analysis at consulting firm KPMG, has decided to investigate.In the November 2020 issue of Yale Journal of Industrial EcologyHerrington expanded her research as a graduate student at Harvard University earlier that year, analyzing forecasts of “growth limits” along with up-to-date real-world data.
Herrington is the current state of the world — population, fertility, pollution Level, Food Production, Industrial Production — Two scenarios proposed in 1972, the BAU scenario, and a comprehensive technology (technological advances that help reduce pollution and increase food supply even when natural resources are in operation). It works very closely with a scenario called CT). Out.
In the CT scenario, the shock to the welfare of the world’s population and individuals is lessened, but the lack of natural resources leads to a sharp decline in economic growth, the sudden collapse of industrial society.
“”[The BAU] CT scenarios have been shown to stop growing in the next 10 years or so. Therefore, both scenarios show that it is impossible to continue business as usual, that is, to pursue continuous growth.
Fortunately, it’s never too late to avoid both of these scenarios and get society on track for the alternative Stabilized World (SW) scenario. This road begins in the same way as the BAU and CT routes, with population, pollution and economic growth rising in tandem and natural resources declining. The difference occurs when humans deliberately decide to limit economic growth before resource shortages force them.
“The SW scenario presupposes changing global social priorities in addition to technical solutions,” Herrington writes. “Changes in values and policies lead, among other things, to the low number of desirable families, the availability of complete contraception, and the deliberate choice of limiting industrial production and prioritizing health and educational services. “
To SW scenario graphImmediately after this change in values occurs, industrial growth and the world’s population will begin to level off. Food availability continues to rise to meet the needs of the world’s population. Pollution is reduced and almost disappears. The depletion of natural resources is also beginning to level off. Societal collapse is completely avoided.
This scenario may sound like an illusion — especially as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Soar to record highs.. However, this study suggests that deliberate changes in course are still possible.
Herrington on Vice.com vaccine It is a testament to human ingenuity in the face of a global crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Herrington, it’s entirely possible for humans to react to ongoing situations as well. Climate crisis — If you deliberately choose to do so throughout society.
“Humanity intentionally changed course, [the] “In effect, humanity can choose its own limits or reach the limits imposed at some point, at which point human welfare will inevitably decline,” Herrington said in a study. I concluded.
For more information on the report Vice.com..
Originally published in Live Science.
Society is on track for a global collapse, a new study of the infamous 1970s report
Source link Society is on track for a global collapse, a new study of the infamous 1970s report