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Studies show that delta variants double the risk of covid-19 hospitalization

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The general public will have a meal at Covent Garden in London on Monday, June 14th.

Jason Alden / Bloomberg via Getty Images

The final removal of the covid-19 restriction in the UK, scheduled for June 21, has been delayed by four weeks to avoid the risk of a new wave of covid-19 caused by the delta variant. Postponement will give more time to vaccinate more people.

According to the UK Government’s Emergency Science Advisory Group (SAGE), a computer model of lift restrictions predicts a “massive resurgence” at the time of case or hospitalization, which can be “significantly” larger than the previous wave. There is sex.

After falling for a few months New cases of covid-19 are increasing again In all four UK countries. Scotland is the most affected and England is the second. The rise is facilitated by the delta variant.The delta variant is believed to be approximately 60% more infectious than the previously predominant alpha variant (formerly known as B.1.1.7) and is now considered to be approximately 60% more infectious. Almost 90% of new cases in the UK.

According to Jim McMenamin, National Covid-19 Incident Director of Public Health Scotland, the good news is that the vaccine is still very effective.

Public Health England figures Two vaccinations are 80.8% effective against the symptomatic disease caused by the delta mutation, but one vaccination is much less effective, showing that only 33.2% of prevention is provided. .. The equivalent numbers for the alpha variant are 88.4 percent and 50.2 percent. “We need to put these second doses out there,” says McMenamin. The dataset does not distinguish between different vaccines.

As of June 12 45% of the UK population was completely vaccinated An additional 17% shot their first shot. It leaves 38 percent completely unvaccinated.

Other findings from Scotland For unvaccinated people, the delta variant suggests that it doubles the risk of hospitalization compared to the alpha variant. However, it is not yet known how the delta variant affects mortality. “We don’t have enough information about it yet,” says Chris Robertson of the University of Strathclyde in the United Kingdom. It is part of the Scottish public health team and analyzed data from 99% of the country’s 5.4 million population. About 1.9 million of them are unvaccinated.

According to Roland Kao of the University of Edinburgh, UK, who was not involved in the study, it is not yet clear how the delta variant is affecting the demand for intensive care units.

Complete removal of restrictions Allowing an unlimited number of guests to people’s homes, there was no limit to the number of guests at pubs, cinemas, theaters, open nightclubs, full sports stadiums, weddings and funerals. Timetables for lifting restrictions vary in other parts of the UK.

Aziz Sheikh, also the University of Edinburgh’s Public Health Scotland team leader, welcomed the decision to postpone. “It will give us the opportunity to increase the proportion of the population who can take two doses,” he says.

Mark Woolhouse of the University of Edinburgh says the delay will also give scientists more time to assess the true dangers of Delta.

December, UK Decided to extend the vaccination interval From 3-4 weeks recommended by the manufacturer Up to 12 weeks, To provide partial protection to the maximum number of people. People over the age of 40 are eligible to receive a second jab eight weeks after the first jab.

However, anyone who wants to take advantage of the postponement to get the first dose of the vaccine should wear their skates. The Scottish team found that the protective effect of the first dose took 28 days to fully develop.

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Studies show that delta variants double the risk of covid-19 hospitalization

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