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Taka on all sides ready to plunge if Iran stumbles upon nuclear negotiations | Simon Tisdall

NSLast week, the United States, Israel, and the EU raised a disturbing issue with a “short time” warning to revive an agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear activity. What do the opposing governments do? What if, as it seems likely, Tehran’s hard-line government continues to stagnate while accumulating funds to manufacture nuclear weapons?

Israeli leaders, as usual, do not chop up words. “Every day goes by and every time negotiations are delayed, Iran approaches a nuclear bomb. If the terrorist regime is trying to acquire nuclear weapons, we must act. That the civilized world does not allow it. It must be clarified, “said Foreign Minister Yair Rapid.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was more cautious. “If Iran doesn’t change course, we’re ready to look at other options … [but] We continue to believe that diplomacy is the most effective method, “he said. Visit Jerusalem, Angela MerkelThe German Chancellor predicted that the deadlocked negotiations were approaching a “decisive” moment.

The last thing US President Joe Biden wants when he leaves the Middle East and tries to focus on China is Israeli military action. Iran It burns the area. Still, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the uneasy, has not ruled it out. “The world waits, the Iranians lag, and the centrifuge spins,” he said.

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Fear is real. Most Jewish Israelis (51%) believe that Israel should have attacked Iran many years ago during the “early stages” of nuclear development, rather than waiting for a negotiated settlement. Survey by the Israeli Institute for Democracy found. Plans for military action against Iran have been “significantly accelerated” Said Aviv Kochabi, the highest general of Israel last month.

The danger is obvious. How Iran’s arch-conservative president Ebrahim Raisi reacts to Western pressure is less important. Since winning the June elections, Laisi has refused to rejoin the Vienna talks on the resurrection of the 2015 Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear agreement arbitrarily broken by Donald Trump. Restricted UN inspections and strengthened nuclear-related activities.

His hard-line ally, which controls all Iran’s power centers, has stated that negotiations will resume “immediately”, but no date has been set.Ominously, the main nuclear negotiator Abbas Alach Replaced by skeptical rivals, Ally Burgery Crab.

“Bagheri was a senior member of the Iranian bargaining team under former President Mahmood Ahmadinejad … he is a stubborn opponent of JCPOA and believes. [it] It violates the rights of the Iranian people and undermines the independence of the country. ” Analyst Saheb Sadegi said..

The Western government, which continues to do business in Vienna, faces more fundamental obstacles. For Raishi and his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdrahian, getting sanctions relief by reviving the nuclear deal is not their number one priority. If necessary, they believe Iran can go without it.

“The Raisi administration has focused on strategies that prioritize’neutralizing the effects of sanctions’ by strengthening economic relations with neighboring countries and countries such as Russia and China,” Sadegi wrote. The United States, determined to contain Iran, believes it will always find a reason to maintain sanctions, even if all demands are met.

Observers hope that Laisi will promote a strategic partnership with Beijing, which is enthusiastic about Iran’s oil and gas. The so-called “eastward” policy also envisions expanding relations with Pakistan, Central Asian and East Asian states exiled to the United States.

To this end, former Chinese and Russian ambassadors Mehdi Safari have been appointed senior deputy foreign ministers of economic diplomacy.

Iran is terribly in need of new trading partners. However, it has benefited significantly from soaring international oil prices, and the economy struck by the isolated Covid is reportedly showing signs of recovery. Regions like Lebanon that endure catastrophic energy shortages are highly dependent and never diminished.

This represents the second element of Raishi’s strategy, a decisive attempt to restore or strengthen relations throughout the Arab world. Amir-Abdollahian recently visited Egypt, Syria and Lebanon to meet UAE leaders.A few months later Secret negotiations with Saudi ArabiaSponsored by Iraq, limited diplomatic relations may soon be restored.

That would be a big step towards rehabilitation in Iran. The US-Israel-backed anti-Iran regional coalition can collapse as other Gulf states follow. Given Washington’s distraction Despite the “Abraham Agreement”, Israel can feel more vulnerable More than ever – and easier to trigger.

Alternatively, the think tank at the Emirates Policy Center in Abu Dhabi Iran’s shift is not well thought out.. Riad and Tehran share interest in safe sea lanes and escalation of the Yemeni conflict, but for continued community-wide support for the “resistance movement” (Shiite militias and surrogate forces in Iraq and elsewhere). Raishi’s claim is a major obstacle to any reconciliation.

Third, it is unlikely that Laisi will unilaterally abandon the Viennese process, which will fall into the hands of the enemy. Instead, when Iranian negotiators finally return, they set more stringent conditions, such as measurable short-term economic benefits, in return for compliance.

They would insist on separating nuclear files from issues such as ballistic missiles and regional security. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear capabilities will mercilessly expand as negotiations prolong. At some point, frustrated western leaders may call for a stop and switch to what they call “Plan B.”

No one seems to know what that means, but that’s probably bad news.

Given the hostility of Israel’s internal organs (and a complete round trip), the duplication of America in the past, and the powerlessness and turmoil of Europe, Laisi’s approach has certain harsh logic. But it ignores the plight of poor Iranian citizens by sanctions. It ignores concerns about nuclear proliferation. It threatens a permanent rift with Western democracy.

To make matters worse, it opens the door to hawks on all sides who recklessly promote military solutions when no such “solution” actually exists. War with Iran? Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

Taka on all sides ready to plunge if Iran stumbles upon nuclear negotiations | Simon Tisdall

Source link Taka on all sides ready to plunge if Iran stumbles upon nuclear negotiations | Simon Tisdall

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