Riverside, California 2020-10-17 17:37:48 –
Austin — Regardless of which party is under the control of the Texas House of Representatives in the November 3 elections, the House of Representatives could be divided as evenly as it was nearly 15 years ago.
Republicans are struggling to maintain the majority they earned when they took the House of Representatives from Democratic rule for the first time since its reconstruction in 2002. And in doing so, they took full control of the state government, and since then Austin Democrats have done nothing but defense.
However, the structural weaknesses of the majority of GOPs became apparent two years ago when the Democrats robbed the Republicans of 12 seats. And in the 2020 election cycle, we are aiming for an additional 18 seats, hoping to get the 9 seats needed to secure a majority.
A poll released Thursday by a boutique news site called Reform Austin surveyed 22 competitive districts (currently 5 Democrats and 17 Republicans), with Democrats winning 5 GOP seats and 6 more. I found that I had the opportunity to win. Without losing yourself.
According to the news site, more than 400 voters were voted in each district using an electronic voice response system. That is, the respondent did not actually talk to the voter, but pressed the keypad number on the phone to give the answer.
You’ll see how credible the methodology is over time, but Democrats in the midst of the party’s efforts won the House of Representatives. He said the findings were consistent with what he was learning in the field in the target areas around the state.
It will leave the party with a majority of the three seats in the house of 150 members. Such a majority could produce Democratic speakers. But in Texas, unlike Congress, anyone is free to race speakers, allowing enough Republicans to unite behind their preferred Democrats and essentially choose speakers.
It assumes that multiple Democrats want to take charge of the infamous Texas House.
But for the sake of discussion, let’s say Reform Austin’s vote is halved. That is, the Democratic Party won about half a dozen seats, the Republican Party left a majority of 77-73, the tightest since the 77-73 margin in 2007, and probably the speaker’s office is locked.
In this scenario, the Democratic Party is in a position to crown the Republican Party, the new boss of the House of Representatives. His current boss, Angleton Republican Dennis Bonen, has not sought re-election to the House of Representatives.
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So what makes all the difference? A considerable amount of money in 2021. If the Republican Party retains control of the House of Representatives (the majority of the Senate is considered safe), the party will continue to control Austin, after tight funding and living under the clouds for nearly a year. It will put pressure on expanding health insurance. Coronavirus.
In addition, the next legislature has the first crack in the redrawing of the State Capitol and Senate districts and House constituencies. If the Republicans win, they will be in a good position to consolidate the majority of the legislature for the next decade.
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But if the Democratic Party reigns, Senate Governor Greg Abbott and Vice-Governor Dan Patrick will find them in an unprecedented position. It will deal with the Democratic Party in real power. Texas Capitol.
And that means we have to talk at least a little sweeter when it comes to passing a meaningful bill next year, rather than just involving the opposition.
However, there is one caveat. Republicans probably don’t need to deal with Democrats to change constituencies. If the Legislature is unable to redraw the lines between the State Capitol and the Senate district, the chores are left to the Legislative Subdivision Commission.
The agency consists of four state-wide elected officials, including the Vice-Governor, and the Speaker of the House. All state officials are Republicans.
John C. Moritz is responsible for Texas Government and Politics at the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at email@example.com and follow him on Twitter @JohnnieMo..