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The OECD warns that the global recovery from a pandemic remains uneven. Inflation forecasts will be raised in response to rising commodity prices.

The Paris-based group warned in its latest economic outlook that the surge in demand following the resumption of the economy is pushing up the cost of key commodities such as oil and metals.

Food prices are also rising, especially in emerging markets, where supply chain tensions are pushing up cost pressure and shipping costs are skyrocketing.

As a result, the OECD raised inflation forecasts for the G20 countries as a whole from 3.5% to 3.7% this year and from 3.4% to 3.9% in 2022.

Inflation in the UK was 2.3% this year (up from 1.3% in May) and 3.1% in 2022, above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

Photo: OECD

According to the OECD, the outlook for inflation has “significantly fluctuated” and has risen sharply in the United States and some emerging market economies, but remains relatively low in many other advanced economies, especially Europe.

Major consumer price inflation rates have also risen around the world in recent months: rising commodity prices, supply constraints, rising consumer demand as the economy resumes, and some early pandemic sectors. It is being pushed up by the reversal of the decline in other prices.

Annual inflation is above 5% in the United States, but remains relatively low in many other developed countries, especially Europe and Asia.

Some of the current rise in inflation reflects the fundamental impact of price declines in the early stages of the pandemic. In many emerging market economies, high prices for energy and food are driving inflation, reflecting both significant price increases and a relatively high share of commodities in consumer spending.

OECD Economic Outlook

Photo: OECD

These inflationary pressures should eventually weaken, he adds:

Once the bottleneck is resolved, supply from the manufacturing industry will recover rapidly, which could quickly mitigate rising prices for durable consumer goods such as automobiles.

Consumer price inflation in the G20 countries is projected to peak at the end of 2021 and slow down throughout 2022. Although some reopening sectors, such as transportation, leisure and hospitality, have seen significant wage increases, overall wage pressures remain modest.

Richard Murphy

Inflation in the UK
Reaching 3% in 2022 is not the reason for rising interest rates

September 21, 2021

The OECD states that the recovery of the global economy remains strong, supported by government and central bank support and vaccination programs.

However, while global GDP is now above pre-pandemic levels, recovery remains uneven as countries out of crisis face a variety of challenges.

Currently, global GDP is projected to rise 5.7% this year from 5.8% in May, after shrinking 3.4% last year. Growth in 2022 increased from 4.4% to 4.5%.

It cut that prediction England It grew from 7.2% to 6.7% this year and from 5.5% to 5.2% in 2022. NS We This year’s growth forecast was lowered from 6.9% to 6%, but next year it was raised from 3.6% to 3.9%.

Forecast Eurozone This year’s growth rate has risen completely to 5.3%, and next year it will be 4.6% (up from 4.4%).

Christoph Barrow 🛢

🌎 #OECD Reduce global 2021 GDP forecast to less than 6%

September 21, 2021

AFP Communications

#update According to the OECD, global production is expected to fall 0.1% from the previous forecast in May this year and increase by 5.7%.
However, the outlook for 2022 has improved slightly and is now expected to grow by 4.5%, up 0.1 percentage points.

September 21, 2021

AFP Communications

#update The OECD has warned of a “uneven” global economic recovery as it lowered its 2021 global and US growth forecasts and raised its outlook for Europe.

September 21, 2021

The government under negotiation to resolve the UK CO2 crisis.Supply chain crisis hits factory growth – Business Live | Work

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