Shoppers will carry a bag of merchandise purchased at the King of Pracha Mall in King of Prasha, Pennsylvania, December 8, 2018.
Mark Makera | Reuters
At the same time, consumer inflation is expected to rise further in September. Fast pace like August, And economists say there are likely to be more hot numbers to follow.
Economists expect the consumer price index to rise 0.3%, or 5.3% annually, when it is released Wednesday at 8:30 am EST. Excluding energy and food, the CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year, according to Dow Jones.
So far, some economists have expected inflation to peak, but supply chain pressures, rising energy prices, and rising rent and health care prices could further spread and sustain inflation. I have.
“I think it can get hot,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Sonton. “It looks like there could be more widespread inflation. There is a supply shock. Spillover effects such as energy prices will begin to occur.”
The world’s supply chains have been suffocated since the economy began to resume. Goods either arrive late or never arrive, and American companies lack everything from sneakers to semiconductors.
The Federal Reserve Board’s view was that the surge in inflation this spring and summer was related to a temporary factor due to the collapse of the supply chain. But latelyInflation can be more risky, some officials say.
Market concerns are that rising inflation is a precursor to rising prices, forcing the Fed to act faster to raise interest rates. According to the latest forecast, about half of Fed officials expect rate hikes next year, and the central bank will soon announce that it will begin curtailing bond purchases.
Federal Reserve Board expects inflation to continue next year At a pace of 2.3%. This is up from 1.8% of the forecast a year ago before the supply chain became a major factor. The Fed monitors inflation data for key consumer spending, not the CPI.
International Monetary Fund on Tuesday He also said that the influence of the groaning supply chain can be seen. The IMF said in its global economic outlook that it expects global gross domestic product to rise 5.9% this year, 0.1 points lower than its July forecast. It blamed Covid and supply chain issues.
“The problem is that it’s no longer clear that we’ve reached the peak of hot numbers,” Swonk added. “What we care about is not only that it cools, but that it cools so fast that it doesn’t bother or matter to the Fed, and given the underlying inflationary pressures on shelter and health care costs, it’s It’s no longer clear. ”
Inflation will probably continue in the coming months, said Joe Labolguna, chief economist at Natixis in the Americas. “Even if we get a better CPI report, there are no clear signs,” he said.
Inflation is likely to continue to rise over the next few months due to two lasting problems, he said. One reason is that supply chain disruptions have caused some products to become very low in stock. Another reason is the trajectory of rising energy prices.
La Vorgna said Soaring oil and natural gas It’s a relatively new factor that changed the inflation outlook. Today, oil has increased by more than 65% year-to-date and natural gas has increased by 110%.
Gasoline prices have skyrocketed recently, rising by more than $ 1 per gallon of unleaded gasoline over the past year and rising 7 cents per gallon nationwide to $ 3.27 last week alone. According to AAA.
“If winter is cold, what will happen to prices and inflation?” He said.
The inflation gauge should heat up again in September.
Source link The inflation gauge should heat up again in September.