Tucson, Arizona 2021-12-03 21:08:05 –
Tucson, Arizona (KGUN) — Arizona’s economy should continue to recover, but it should recover slowly next year. This is a forecast from the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management’s annual economic forecast.
The COVID pandemic has had a major impact on where people work, live and spend money.
Housing demand exceeded supply as people began to work from home and workers who could work in remote areas moved from more expensive areas such as California to Arizona.
House prices soared, and supply and labor shortages pushed prices even higher. Dr. George Hammond, an economist at the University of Arizona, believes that housing supply will gradually catch up with demand.
“I don’t think we’ll see a 20-30% increase over the year. Home prices will continue to rise for a very long time, but home prices may not be seen and home prices are falling. We may see a more normal adjustment, with house prices on the rise, slowly rising, or income catching up and leveling off. “
Hammond says it’s important that home prices aren’t too high and people don’t discourage moving to Arizona. These occupancy is one of the main drivers of Arizona’s growth.
According to Hammond, Arizona’s employment is about 90% pre-pandemic, but our reaction to the pandemic has changed where people work.
Income surged as federal stimulus payments forced people to spend more money. People who are unlikely to travel have spent more money on the products they use while at home.
It pushed up trade and transportation jobs to deliver those goods, but the tourism industry, which is a large part of Tucson’s economy, has fallen.
Hammond said the tourism downturn is part of why the Tucson and Flagstaff economies lag behind other parts of Arizona.
But Hammond doesn’t expect us to get more federal incentives next year, which should slow spending.
“Overall, I think we’re in good shape to remain one of the fastest growing states in the United States. As you know, Phoenix is like an engine of national growth. It will continue to be. Tucson will also participate. The Tucson economy will continue to increase employment, population and income, but at a slightly slower pace than Phoenix. “
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