More frequent and fierce global challenges, such as disease outbreaks, financial crises, climate change and the negative effects of new technologies, are likely to stress already vulnerable government and international organization systems over the next two decades. That is. Comprehensive forecast Edited by US intelligence and released Thursday.
These challenges can be exacerbated by a “mismatch” between what society wants and what the government can or is trying to provide, the report said.
It also says in progressWhile stagnating early developments in poverty reduction and gender inequality, it may have already accelerated some negative trends, including nationalist sentiment and skepticism in international organizations.
“COVID-19 has shaken long-standing assumptions about resilience and adaptation and created new uncertainties about economics, governance, geopolitics, and technology,” said the assessment.
The latest edition of the uncategorized products published by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) every four years, the Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World report, is a “series of possible futures” for policy makers and the general public. It states. “By 2040.
The 156-page document aims to serve as a “assessment of power and dynamics” that NIC, which provides the Director of National Intelligence with a long-term strategic analysis, believes it will shape the international security environment in the coming years. I will. This is the result of extensive consultation with experts, academics, international groups, and staff from multiple US intelligence agencies.
“We will depend on how these dynamics interact and human choices along the way, from the democratic renaissance to the transformation of global cooperation caused by the shared tragedy, 2040. We envision a variety of plausible scenarios in the world of the world, “writes the author of the rating.
“We humbly provide this analysis. We know that in the future we will always deploy in ways we did not anticipate,” reflecting only NIC’s views and across US intelligence agencies and The assessment does not reflect the views of US policy. ..
The authors predict that competition will continue between China and the US-led Western Union, although “there is likely no single state that controls all regions or territories.” They foresee a “more conflict-prone and unstable geopolitical environment.”
Domestic politics is also likely to be more controversial, with “regions, ideologies, or governance systems appearing to be immune-free or unanswered,” the report said.
We focus on the paradoxical trend of “increasing fragmentation” within communities that are increasingly connected through technology, ease of travel, and trade.
“As these connections deepen and expand, they can become more fragmented according to national, cultural or political preferences,” said the assessment. “In addition, people may be drawn to information silos of people who share similar views, strengthening their beliefs and understanding of the truth.”
While technologies such as artificial intelligence are widely adopted, according to the document, the clear benefits to industries such as healthcare, transportation and education can also be seriously confusing.
“By 2040, the world will have an order of magnitude more devices, data and interactions, connecting all aspects of modern life and crossing political and social boundaries,” said the assessment. “Privacy and anonymity can be virtually extinguished by choice or government order, as all aspects of personal and professional life are tracked by the global network.”
“Real-time, manufacturing, or synthetic media can further distort truth and reality and destabilize society at a scale and speed that diminishes the current disinformation challenge,” the report said.
Whether the change is climate, technology or demographics, countries that are successful in adapting to change will soon have an advantage.
“The most effective states are those that can build social consensus and trust for collective action on adaptation and use the relative expertise, capabilities and relationships of non-state actors to complement their capabilities. It’s likely, “the author writes.
U.S. intelligence reports warn that the world will face “more intense and chained global challenges” over the next 20 years
Source link U.S. intelligence reports warn that the world will face “more intense and chained global challenges” over the next 20 years