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UK tests the limits of mass vaccination

AS Midnight has arrived To commemorate the beginning of “Freedom Day” on July 19, Clubber returned to the dance floor. Still, I was worried. Reading a viral Instagram post by the promoter, “It’s clear that Boris is under extreme pressure to go back to ending the restriction.” “If the numbers spike, he will 100% blame the club for being a Superspreader event!” So continue, take a cross-flow test before you go out.They are “free from chemists”[s]!! “

A variant of Delta covid-19 has hit the UK, with more than 40,000 cases reported per day (two-thirds of the January peak). The number doubles approximately every two weeks. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to end most mitigation measures in the UK, such as limiting the size of the rally and the requirements for wearing masks and maintaining distance, looks much brave than when it was announced earlier this month. I will. Club promoters read political dynamics more or less correctly.

What happens next is interesting across the British border. It is the first country to face a wave of more contagious delta mutants that have already vaccinated most of the adult population. It is monitored by policy makers trying to answer important questions: the combination of vaccination and adaptive immunity is the coronavirus they endemic and cause other endemic diseases such as influenza and the common cold. Is it possible to treat covid-19 as?

The UK offers such case studies for two reasons. One is that Delta arrived early. Second, rapid vaccination campaigns mean that the country has provided two jabs to all the most vulnerable people and at least one jab to all adults. Almost 95% of people over the age of 65 in the United Kingdom are vaccinated, but in the United States it is 80% of that age group and still a small number in the European Union. As a result of this and better treatment of the sick, the case fatality rate in the UK has plummeted. In this sense, the UK offers the best scenario, as many countries have not caught up with the delta variant by the time it takes off.

Even if the death toll is much lower than in other cases, a huge number of infectious diseases can cause immediate damage. Authorities are vigilant about medical services. Currently, more than 700 covid-19 patients are hospitalized daily. That’s one-sixth of the January peak, but twice as much as it was a few weeks ago. The increase in hospitalization seems to be at the high end of official modeling dating back to early July. However, bed occupancy remains in line with core expectations as younger patients spend less time in the hospital.

Predicting what will come is even more difficult than usual. “There are three or four sources of uncertainty, and multiplying them increases the uncertainty,” says Mark Bagerin, a modeling team at Imperial College London. These include how people react freely in mountaineering incidents, the degree of protection provided by infection with previous variants, and how well the vaccine protects against delta variants. I will. The difference between 95% and 98% protection against death may not seem that much, but as Bagelin points out, the former means more than twice as many deaths as the latter.

Please do not leave this house

The government does not seem ready for the turmoil. Advice for the most endangered immunosuppressors was vague and delayed, arriving only on July 12. Over 800,000 people were asked to be quarantined by contact tracers or the National Health Service in the last week when data were available (NHS) App. Already, one in five people between the ages of 18 and 24 has removed the app, many of which prevent it from being “pinged”. In January, modeling by researchers at the University of Oxford, the UK Public Health Service, and the Ministry of Health found that immunochromatography could detect about 90% of infections in people who came into contact with positive cases, and testing and release strategies are far more. At a low cost, it can bring many benefits of quarantine.

It wasn’t until May that the government began pilot research to test ideas. Currently, about 40,000 people are enrolled, but no results have been achieved yet. Meanwhile, the government was upset over the best course of action. The Prime Minister’s Office is inconsistent with the two ministers. One suggested that the government reduce the sensitivity of the app. Another explained the guidance to separate as advice rather than guidance. Instead, the minister decided to exempt asymptomatic, fully vaccinated “significant workers” such as railroad signals, air traffic controllers, and doctors from the requirements for quarantine, thereby they go to work. I was able to. When the government announced its policy, it had not yet been decided who would be accurately counted as such a worker.

After excluding the vaccine passport, Johnson announced on July 19 that it would actually be used in “closed, crowded, and in-close contact areas.” They will also be required to join a club where a negative test is inadequate, as previously proposed, in order to increase immunization rates among young British. But obviously this measure will only be introduced in September, when the waves are at their worst. “I don’t know who is advising them on their communications strategy,” says a scientist advising the government. “No matter who it is, they should be fired.”

TV set The producer used a heaving club shot to explain the reopening. But these tell only a small part of the story. A poll by YouGov found that even among regular clubbers, nearly three-quarters are still unwilling to hit the dance floor. The Economic Activity Index, generated from Google data on visits to offices, train stations, retail stores and recreational facilities, has fallen by around 5% since its peak in June. Small signs of more activity From July 19th. People are at home, even if not commanded.

It will delay any economic recovery. And government mistakes will undermine goodwill from the deployment of stellar vaccines. How much will the UK population depend on the progress of the enormous registered experiments? ■■

This article was published in the print version of the UK section under the heading “Fight for Party Rights.”

UK tests the limits of mass vaccination

Source link UK tests the limits of mass vaccination

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