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China’s retail sales, first two months of industrial data beat expectations

On March 15, 2024, a high-rise residential and commercial building will be constructed near Dongyou Road in Qiantan, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China.

Null Photo | Null Photo | Getty Images

BEIJING—China’s economic data for the first two months of this year released on Monday exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Retail sales rose 5.5%, beating a Reuters poll’s forecast for a 5.2% rise, while industrial production rose 7%, compared with the expected 5% rise.

Fixed asset investment rose 4.2%, beating analysts’ expectations of 3.2%.

The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.3% in February.

In the first two months of this year, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 14.4% year-on-year.

Investment in real estate fell 9% in the first two months of this year compared to the same period last year. During this period, investment in infrastructure increased by 6.3% and investment in manufacturing increased by 9.4%.

According to the Chinese version of CNBC, National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Liu Aihua said real estate is still in a period of “adjustment”.

In response to a question about the unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds, Liu said the figures would be released a few days after the monthly press conference on economic indicators.

In China, economic data for January and February are usually combined to smooth out fluctuations from the Lunar New Year. Lunar New Year can fall in either month depending on the calendar year. It is the country’s biggest public holiday, with factories and businesses closed for at least a week.

This year, the number of trips and income of domestic tourists during the holidays increased compared to last year and pre-pandemic 2019 figures. However, Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, said that “average tourism spending per trip remains below 9.5%.” That’s the pre-pandemic level of 2019. ”

Retail sales did not recover as much from the pandemic as many expected, as consumers grew anxious about their future incomes.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Friday that new loan volumes in February were lower than expected and fell month-over-month “even after adjusting for seasonality.”

Analysts said, “The continued slump in real estate transactions and weak consumer sentiment may continue to put pressure on household borrowings.” “Further monetary easing is necessary.”

Governor of the People’s Bank of China Earlier this month, Ban Gong-sheng said there was still room to lower reserve requirements.or the amount of cash a bank must have on hand.

Goldman expects the ratio to fall by 25 basis points in the second quarter of this year, as it did in the fourth quarter.

Real estate, which accounts for a significant portion of household wealth, has languished in recent years following a Chinese government crackdown on developers’ heavy reliance on debt for growth.

Average real estate prices in China’s 70 major cities fell by 4.5% in February compared to January on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis using a weighted average of official figures.

That’s more than the 3.5% month-over-month decline in real estate prices in January, according to Goldman Sachs.

“New home transaction volume across 30 cities fell 53.2%, according to our high-frequency tracker.” [year-on-year] It is scheduled for early March after adjustment to lunar calendar standards,” the analysts said in a report.

Chinese authorities did not reveal any significant new support for the large-scale aid. real estate sector At the annual Congressional meeting that concluded last week.

Instead, the Chinese government emphasized its own interests. Focus on developing manufacturing and technical capabilities.

Data from earlier this month showed that China’s exports rose 7.1% in US dollar terms in January and February, beating expectations for a 1.9% increase.

Imports rose 3.5% during the period, exceeding Reuters’ forecast for a 1.5% increase.

This is a developing story. Please check back for the latest information.

Summarize this content to 100 words On March 15, 2024, a high-rise residential and commercial building will be constructed near Dongyou Road in Qiantan, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China. Null Photo | Null Photo | Getty ImagesBEIJING—China’s economic data for the first two months of this year released on Monday exceeded analysts’ expectations.Retail sales rose 5.5%, beating a Reuters poll’s forecast for a 5.2% rise, while industrial production rose 7%, compared with the expected 5% rise.Fixed asset investment rose 4.2%, beating analysts’ expectations of 3.2%.The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.3% in February.In the first two months of this year, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 14.4% year-on-year.Investment in real estate fell 9% in the first two months of this year compared to the same period last year. During this period, investment in infrastructure increased by 6.3% and investment in manufacturing increased by 9.4%.According to the Chinese version of CNBC, National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Liu Aihua said real estate is still in a period of “adjustment”.In response to a question about the unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds, Liu said the figures would be released a few days after the monthly press conference on economic indicators.In China, economic data for January and February are usually combined to smooth out fluctuations from the Lunar New Year. Lunar New Year can fall in either month depending on the calendar year. It is the country’s biggest public holiday, with factories and businesses closed for at least a week.This year, the number of trips and income of domestic tourists during the holidays increased compared to last year and pre-pandemic 2019 figures. However, Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, said that “average tourism spending per trip remains below 9.5%.” That’s the pre-pandemic level of 2019. ”Retail sales did not recover as much from the pandemic as many expected, as consumers grew anxious about their future incomes.Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Friday that new loan volumes in February were lower than expected and fell month-over-month “even after adjusting for seasonality.”Analysts said, “The continued slump in real estate transactions and weak consumer sentiment may continue to put pressure on household borrowings.” “Further monetary easing is necessary.”Governor of the People’s Bank of China Earlier this month, Ban Gong-sheng said there was still room to lower reserve requirements.or the amount of cash a bank must have on hand.Goldman expects the ratio to fall by 25 basis points in the second quarter of this year, as it did in the fourth quarter.Real estate, which accounts for a significant portion of household wealth, has languished in recent years following a Chinese government crackdown on developers’ heavy reliance on debt for growth.Average real estate prices in China’s 70 major cities fell by 4.5% in February compared to January on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis using a weighted average of official figures.That’s more than the 3.5% month-over-month decline in real estate prices in January, according to Goldman Sachs.“New home transaction volume across 30 cities fell 53.2%, according to our high-frequency tracker.” [year-on-year] It is scheduled for early March after adjustment to lunar calendar standards,” the analysts said in a report.Chinese authorities did not reveal any significant new support for the large-scale aid. real estate sector At the annual Congressional meeting that concluded last week.Instead, the Chinese government emphasized its own interests. Focus on developing manufacturing and technical capabilities.Data from earlier this month showed that China’s exports rose 7.1% in US dollar terms in January and February, beating expectations for a 1.9% increase.Imports rose 3.5% during the period, exceeding Reuters’ forecast for a 1.5% increase.This is a developing story. Please check back for the latest information.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/china-retail-sales-industrial-data-for-first-2-months-beats-expectations.html China’s retail sales, first two months of industrial data beat expectations

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