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University of Hawaii’s COVID-19 forecast model predicts Delta variant could push Oahu to 600 daily infections – Honolulu, Hawaii

Honolulu, Hawaii 2021-07-30 00:30:17 –

Honolulu (KHON2) — The Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Workgroup has made predictions for several COVID-19 scenarios since the pandemic began last year, but the most disturbing predictions are that the state will head in the coming months. This is a possible place.

According to experts, the state is currently heading for the worst-case scenario, with vaccinations just below 60% and Delta variants spreading to unvaccinated people.

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If this trend continues with vaccination rates below 65%, experts say more than 600 new COVID-19 cases are expected daily on Oahu by mid-November.

A better case scenario would be if the state could reach a 70% immunization rate, which would be just under 400 per day by mid-November.

“We were pretty good. There were some waves, and despite the rising tourists, the waves were on the decline, but we were still controlling the speed well. But at the end you can see the rise [this summer], And we are now in the worst of situations than a year ago, “explained Dr. Monique Chyba of the UH Department of Mathematics, who contributed to the study. “This is very disturbing because we are vaccinated and the proportion of the vaccinated population is high. Nevertheless, we are on a steeper journey. Continues. “

She said it all meant much higher transmission due to the Delta variant.

“The Delta variant is driving the rise, otherwise it’s a very good situation. We have full control, no doubt about it, and probably no mask mandate,” said Dr. Chyba. Told.

“The delta variant is the only variant that is increasing and it is dominant. Therefore, unless something else comes, we can quickly guess that the delta variant will be the completely dominant variant.” She added.

Dr. Ciba said Oahu is on track to reach 700 cases if mitigation measures remain as-is and Delta variants continue to spread as-is. She said many cases overwhelmed the hospital and did not believe the state would allow the cases to reach that height.

“That is, you have to go back. You have to make a decision. The orange line will start tempering if 70% of the population has been vaccinated. Then you can actually maintain it. The green line, which is, assumes that up to 80% of the population will be vaccinated at the following rates: We maintain. “

She said Big Island is currently the island of greatest concern as vaccination rates have declined and the islands have the highest positive rates.

Dr. Chyba and UH Epidemiology Associate Professor Thomas Lee, co-chair of UH HiPAM, said the state is already worse than expected because hospitalizations today are higher than the model predicts.

Another concern is that vaccine efficacy will begin to decline and booster shots will be required while the delta variant spreads.

Experts said it would give more opportunities to spread to people vaccinated against Delta variants.

“We do not make up for the fact that 89 of the 93 COVID hospitalizations were unvaccinated three days ago. We note that the majority of deaths are among unvaccinated people. Does not make up, “Dr. Lee said of unvaccinated people who are questioning the science of vaccines.

Both doctors said that the longer people wait for vaccination, the more likely it is that a deadly new variant will form.

“Wear a mask and limit people to concerts. As the virus continues to give the opportunity to become more serious and infectious, it may be necessary to re-use everything we didn’t like about the tier system. “No,” continued Dr. Lee.

For now, they say it’s best to get vaccinated and download the Aloha Safe Alerts app.

When asked to describe the current situation in one word, both answered “alert and preventable.”

They said that mandating vaccinations and imposing restrictions if the number of cases began to increase and overwhelmed the hospital would also help restore the curve.

University of Hawaii’s COVID-19 forecast model predicts Delta variant could push Oahu to 600 daily infections Source link University of Hawaii’s COVID-19 forecast model predicts Delta variant could push Oahu to 600 daily infections

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