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US Covid cases have fallen from their latest peak, but deltas are still rising in some states

CSULB students are first vaccinated with the Physer Covid-19 vaccine at the California State University Long Beach (CSULB) Campus Long Beach Public Health Covid-19 Mobile Vaccination Clinic on August 11, 2021 in Long Beach, California. To receive

Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

The number of cases of Covid-19 in the United States shows signs of mitigating the latest highs, but remains rising as the country heads for the fall season and cold weather.

According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the 7-day average of Covid cases per day as of September 12 is approximately 144,300. This figure has fallen 12% over the past week, down 14% from the latest peak in the number of cases on September 1, when the country reported an average of about 167,600 cases per day.

“This is good news,” said Dr. Arturo Casadeval, chair of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “It may represent that we have peaked and are now descending.”

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the United States has seen some fluctuations in daily Covid cases. The average daily number of cases in April 2020 reached approximately 32,000 before sedation. After that, it surged and peaked at 67,000 by July 2020. The pace of new cases slowed after Labor Day in 2020 and surged to a record high of 251,000 cases per day in January. In addition, there was a sharp drop after the holidays, and in April this number surged to about 71,000 per day.

“All epidemics go through a cycle and eventually decline, which happens when there are enough resistant people,” said Casadeval, who said this summer’s vaccinations and numerous infectious diseases. He explained that the combination could help hunt down the country.

But he warned that the virus was unpredictable. “With the fact that the numbers are declining, except for some optimism, I will just declare carefully.”

Covid’s hospitalization and mortality counts also have some promising signs. These data tend to delay the number of cases by more than a few weeks because it takes time for people to become ill enough to require urgent care after being infected with the virus.

Approximately 100,600 Americans are currently hospitalized in Covid, according to 7-day average data from the Department of Health and Human Services. This is a 2% decrease from a week ago.

Current hospitalizations have not exceeded 100,000 since January, but exceeded that level again in late August, but the pace of new Covid patients entering the hospital is now slowing. According to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the average of seven days of hospitalization for the week to September 10 has decreased by 6.8% compared to the previous week.

However, the daily death toll is still increasing. Hopkins data show that the country has reported an average of more than 1,600 Covid deaths per day in the past week. This is the highest value for 6 months. Daily mortality has increased by 4% over the past week, a modest increase over the 26% weekly change reported two weeks ago.

Still, the United States is heading for the fall season, students are returning to school, the cold climate is approaching, and people are driving people indoors where the virus spreads more easily.

“I think it’s likely to peak, but I think we need to check before we can be sure that the whole country will see what the data will look like after the school season begins,” said Dr. Bruce. rice field. Farber, Head of Infectious Diseases at Northwell Health in New York. As the school year has just begun in the northeast, it can take weeks before potential classroom-related outbreaks become apparent.

In some of the states with the earliest impact of delta variants this summer, the pace of new infections is slowing.

Missouri — Rapid increase in cases From early July — cases have fallen 10% in the past week, averaging around 2,100 per day, down 29% from the latest peak in early August. Hospitalizations have declined for weeks, and the state’s daily death toll is showing signs of leveling off. Missouri reports an average of 32 deaths per day, according to Hopkins data.

Trends were similar in Arkansas and Louisiana, at or near the top of the state ranking for population-adjusted cases during the summer. It is currently ranked 19th and 21st respectively. Arkansas reports an average of 1,600 cases per day, compared to the recent high of 2,351 per day on August 7. Louisiana, on the other hand, has an average daily number of cases of 2,239 as of September 12.

Hospitalizations have declined in both states, according to the CDC, but neither has yet seen a sustained decline in daily deaths.

Infection levels are also declining in Florida. The hospital went out of control He said there were 100,249 new infections in the seven days to Friday this summer as the state endured one of the worst outbreaks in Florida, USA, and stopped reporting daily cases in May. One week before that. The state reported 2,448 new deaths last week, the highest in the weekly pandemic total.

In other parts of the country, delta variants are still well established.

According to Hopkins data, the number of cases in West Virginia has reached record levels, averaging about 1,800 per day. The state’s Covid emperor, Dr. Clay Marsh, said the recent surge was more extreme than any previous wave and happened faster.

“Our hospital system and ICU are facing more serious problems than before, so we are very worried about getting out of this particular part of the pandemic,” he said.

As of Monday, there were 852 West Virginia residents in a hospital in Covid, up from 52 on July 5, according to Marsh. Ventilator, 6 to 162.

According to Marsh, the majority of Covid patients receiving critical care in his hospital system are unvaccinated and younger than before the pandemic.West Virginia Early national leader in vaccinationSince then, the pace of shots has slowed. According to CDC data, the proportion of fully vaccinated residents in the state (39.9%) is the last to be linked in the country.

Marsh is particularly interested in protecting the population under the age of 12 in states that are not yet eligible for shots, but 51 of 55 county school districts and many of the state’s universities have adopted mask policies. I said there is. He hopes that the recent increase in vaccination, coupled with the high levels of immunity of the population from past infections, will help the state avoid unmanageable pressure on the hospital system.

Dr. Catherine Moffett, an infectious disease specialist at WVU Medicine, also predicts that hospitalizations in West Virginia will continue to rise to new heights in the coming weeks.

“It’s amazing,” she said. “We’re trying to get ready, but we don’t know how we can get ready to get more ventilators and more space.”

Kentucky has also set a record.Governor Andy Beshear Said in a statement on September 7 The state reported a record number of 30,680 new cases between August 30th and September 5th.

“We continue to see more cases than are never safe,” Bescher said. “The bad news is that it was the worst week in history last week. Our hospital continues to be at stake. One bad week can quickly run out of ICU beds. “

Cases in Tennessee have also increased steadily since July. According to Hopkins, Tennessee reported an average of more than 7,600 cases per day in the past week, with a December pandemic peak of 9,627.

Still, infectious disease experts say the country would be much worse without access to the Covid vaccine. Approximately 54% of Americans are fully vaccinated, according to CDC data, but the pace of daily shots today is well below record levels since mid-April.

“If we hadn’t been vaccinated, you would have seen far more cases and far more mortality rates,” said Hopkins doctor Casadeval. “It’s very clear that those who have the vaccine can get it. [Covid]However, it is also clear that they are much less likely to get serious illness, have to go to the hospital, or die than if they were not vaccinated. As a result, the vaccine is quietly in the background, saving tens of thousands of lives. “

US Covid cases have fallen from their latest peak, but deltas are still rising in some states

Source link US Covid cases have fallen from their latest peak, but deltas are still rising in some states

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