White House Asia’s top executives have warned that the US’s declaration to protect Taiwan from China’s attacks poses a “significant downside.”
Washington has maintained a “strategic ambiguity” policy regarding Taiwan for decades. Discourage Taipei From proclaiming independence, and from China’s military action to occupy the country. Beijing claims democratic Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory.
Some experts are calling for a transition to “strategic clarity.” Clarify in Beijing The United States will protect Taiwan. But Kurt Campbell, the emperor of White House Asia, said such changes carry risks.
“There are some serious drawbacks … Strategic clarity,” he told the Financial Times. Global meeting room meeting on Tuesday.
“The best way to maintain peace and stability is to send a truly integrated message to Chinese leaders, including diplomacy, defense innovation, and our own capabilities, and they will be in the future. Don’t think of some kind of ambitious and dangerous provocative sequence of steps. ”
Chinese Aggressive military activity Some analysts argue that increased defense justifies a stronger message from Washington. However, others argue that the reaction can have undesired consequences. China warned the United States about crossing Taiwan’s “red line.”
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines recently said China would see policy shifts as “serious” destabilization. “It will solidify China’s perception that the United States is trying to curb China’s rise through military forces and perhaps Beijing will aggressively undermine US interests around the world,” she said.
But David Sachs, a Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations who supports change, said that “a significant downside to strategic ambiguity” was created when China did not have the military power to attack Taiwan. Said there is.
“US policy must recognize that deterrence is being eroded and adapt to China’s ability to grow,” he said. “China’s actions in Hong Kong show that Western criticism and sanctions are not enough to shape that action. Strategic clarity raises the seriousness that we question Taiwan’s future. I will tell China. “
Concerns are rising like China Flyed more military aircraft Over the past year, it has invaded Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. This has become an almost routine activity. Last month, the PLA sent a record 25 military aircraft to the southwest corner of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
Analysts said the flight was aimed at threatening Taipei and running out of the Air Force, which was forced to scramble jets accordingly.
Philip Davidson said he was worried about what China could do in his last parliamentary appearance in March before retiring as head of the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific. Attack Taiwan within 6 years. He also said that strategic ambiguity has helped maintain the status quo for decades, but “these things should be reconsidered on a regular basis.”
A few days later, U.S. officials told FT, and the government said China. Flirting with ideas Of taking military action.
When asked if the world needed to prepare for a possible conflict over Taiwan, Campbell said China’s military operations were Taiwan’s “twisting” effort and downplayed the risks.
But Elizabeth Economy of the Hoover Institution think tank, who spoke with Campbell on the panel, said she was more and more worried.
“Read all of the speech of Xi Jinping, one of the things you can learn about Xi Jinping by tracking the behavior is that quite there is a strong correlation between the behavior and remarks of Xi Jinping,” said Economy says.
“He talked sooner or later about the need for reunification with Taiwan. He has not abandoned the use of force … He may be overconfident, his military is confident We need to take the threat of potential excess very seriously. “
Ryan Hass, a Chinese expert at the Brookings Institution think tank, said Campbell’s remarks were important “because there were few problems.” .. .. Language accuracy has a greater impact than Taiwan. “
“Campbell’s long-standing policy repetition shows that stability and robustness will continue to be today’s order to address Taiwan’s problems,” Hass said. “His comments should limit future freelance by US authorities on Taiwan policy.”
Follow Demetri Sevastopulo on Twitter. @Dimi
Washington avoids public declaration to protect Taiwan
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