New Orleans

Weekend cold front, monitoring 90L in the Gulf – New Orleans, Louisiana

New Orleans, Louisiana 2020-09-17 08:21:00 –

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early, turning mostly cloudy. Hot. Highs upper 80s to around 90. 10% chance of showers. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Partly cloudy night. 20% chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. North winds around 10 mph. LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND: Another cold front will push across the region late Friday into Saturday. There will be a chance for a few isolated-to-scattered showers Friday, with a few early am/afternoon showers left Saturday generally along I-10 and south. Slightly cooler and drier air will move into the area Saturday afternoon and through the remainder of the weekend behind the front as high pressure builds over the region. Highs will be in the low 80s, with lows in the mid 60s north and near 70 on the south shore. NEXT WEEK: The NHC is monitoring a slow-moving disturbance (Invest 90L-see more below) over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This feature and the aforementioned cold front will play a role in the forecast next week. As of now, the front looks to stay tucked into the central Gulf into midweek next week. Global model guidance diverge on how the disturbance will behave over the Gulf. Model consensus trends slightly higher with moisture spreading steadily north. For now, I’ve gone with low chance of scattered showers daily. We could have increased tides/potential minor coastal flooding by next week. Expect a comfy early fall feel early in the week, with highs int the low and mid 80s while the overnight lows range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.TROPICS: There are currently two named tropical systems in the Atlantic and three disturbances being monitored for potential tropical development. One of these disturbances, Invest 90L, is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. SALLY: Hurricane Sally made landfall just before 5am CT Wednesday near Gulf Shores, AL with max winds of 105 mph. Sally is 8th named storm to make landfall in the continental U.S. so far in 2020. This is the most continental U.S. landfalling named storms on record through September 16. The old record was 7. Sally is the first hurricane to make landfall in Alabama since Ivan in 2004. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mp. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, and move over central Georgia Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Weakening is expected as the center moves inland today and tonight. Hurricane force winds, life-threatening storm surge, very heavy rainfall, and a threat for tornadoes will continue through Wednesday for portions of the Central Gulf Coast region. As Sally moves slowly inland, significant flash and urban flooding, as well as minor to moderate river flooding, are likely to spread northward into Alabama, Northern Georgia, and the Western Carolinas. The latest forecast storm total rainfall from Sally calls for 10 to 20+ inches of rain with isolated 35 maximum over parts of Southeast U.S.INVEST 90L IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO: Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning in association with a well-defined low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS: An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.FAR NE ATLANTIC: 3. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Azores. Some additional subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as it moves east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph. The system is expected to reach the coast of Portugal late Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early, turning mostly cloudy. Hot. Highs upper 80s to around 90. 10% chance of showers. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Partly cloudy night. 20% chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. North winds around 10 mph.

LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND: Another cold front will push across the region late Friday into Saturday. There will be a chance for a few isolated-to-scattered showers Friday, with a few early am/afternoon showers left Saturday generally along I-10 and south. Slightly cooler and drier air will move into the area Saturday afternoon and through the remainder of the weekend behind the front as high pressure builds over the region. Highs will be in the low 80s, with lows in the mid 60s north and near 70 on the south shore.

NEXT WEEK: The NHC is monitoring a slow-moving disturbance (Invest 90L-see more below) over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This feature and the aforementioned cold front will play a role in the forecast next week. As of now, the front looks to stay tucked into the central Gulf into midweek next week. Global model guidance diverge on how the disturbance will behave over the Gulf. Model consensus trends slightly higher with moisture spreading steadily north. For now, I’ve gone with low chance of scattered showers daily. We could have increased tides/potential minor coastal flooding by next week. Expect a comfy early fall feel early in the week, with highs int the low and mid 80s while the overnight lows range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

TROPICS: There are currently two named tropical systems in the Atlantic and three disturbances being monitored for potential tropical development. One of these disturbances, Invest 90L, is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

SALLY: Hurricane Sally made landfall just before 5am CT Wednesday near Gulf Shores, AL with max winds of 105 mph. Sally is 8th named storm to make landfall in the continental U.S. so far in 2020. This is the most continental U.S. landfalling named storms on record through September 16. The old record was 7. Sally is the first hurricane to make landfall in Alabama since Ivan in 2004. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mp. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, and move over central Georgia Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Weakening is expected as the center moves inland today and tonight. Hurricane force winds, life-threatening storm surge, very heavy rainfall, and a threat for tornadoes will continue through Wednesday for portions of the Central Gulf Coast region. As Sally moves slowly inland, significant flash and urban flooding, as well as minor to moderate river flooding, are likely to spread northward into Alabama, Northern Georgia, and the Western Carolinas. The latest forecast storm total rainfall from Sally calls for 10 to 20+ inches of rain with isolated 35 maximum over parts of Southeast U.S.

INVEST 90L IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO: Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning in association with a well-defined low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS: An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are

expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

FAR NE ATLANTIC: 3. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Azores. Some additional subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as it moves east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph. The system is expected to reach the coast of Portugal late Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

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