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US inflation slows to 3.2%; insolvencies jump 18% in England and Wales – business live | Business

US inflation falls to 3.2%

Newsflash: Inflation in the United States has dropped by more than expected, as price pressures continue to ease.

The US consumer prices index rose by 3.2% in the year to October, below the 3.3% expected, and down from the 3.7% recorded in September.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, fell to 4.0%, the lowest since September 2021.

Energy prices fell by 4.5% over the last year, while food inflation was 3.3%.

On a monthy basis, CPI was unchanged in October compared with September, a slowdown on the 0.4% rise recorded a month ago.

This may reassure America’s central bankers that they are winning in their battle to bring down inflation, meaning that further interest rate increases may not be needed.

US October CPI: Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report. Inflation flat m/m & 3.2% y/y. Core up 0.2% & 4% over that same time frame.

— Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) November 14, 2023

Key events

Soft landing ‘looks likely’ as US inflation falls

US inflation continues “on a downward trend”, says Richard Garland, chief investment strategist at Omnis Investments, adding:

This should reaffirm the Fed’s view that interest rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation back to target, albeit they will keep rate hikes on the table until a low 2% inflation handle heaves into view.

lthough a comforting inflation reading is still some distance away, the labour market is weakening and economic growth is set to slow as consumers reign in their spending; a soft landing for the economy still looks most likely, but downside surprises in economic growth could change the Fed’s focus next year.

Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, says today’s drop in US inflation means the US Federal Reserve is less likely to raise interest rates higher.

Flynn explains:

Today’s figures show that the rate of inflation has fallen compared to last month, making the prospect of a soft landing ever more likely. The numbers revealed today indicate the Fed is inching closer to its 2% CPI target.

The drop in inflation suggests that recent monetary policy has been doing its job. This good news reinforces the likelihood that the Central Bankers will hold off from further rate hikes in this cycle, which is the direction they seem to be leaning in any case. With wage growth slowing and sectors such as manufacturing losing pace, there is a risk that further tightening could trigger a problem in the economy.

Higher rates in the US would also make it more expensive to borrow in US dollars, creating difficulties for emerging-market economies that do so. All in all, “higher for longer” looks like a much more sensible move than “even higher”.”

Government bond prices are also strengthening, on relief that US inflation fell more sharply than expected last month.

This has pushed down the yield (or interest rate) on US Treasuries, and also on European government bonds.

Better than expected US CPI inflation numbers with headline flat (month-on-month) and core up 0.2%.
This compares to the consensus forecasts of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
The market reactions include a sharp fall in yields (currently 12 bps for the 10 year), a weaker dollar,…

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 14, 2023

Dollar slides as inflation falls

The dollar is tumbling, after US inflation fell more quickly than expected last month.

This has pushed the pound up by a whole cent, to $1.239, the highest in a week.

The euro has also gained against the dollar, up nearly a cent to $1.079.

US inflation falls to 3.2%

Newsflash: Inflation in the United States has dropped by more than expected, as price pressures continue to ease.

The US consumer prices index rose by 3.2% in the year to October, below the 3.3% expected, and down from the 3.7% recorded in September.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, fell to 4.0%, the lowest since September 2021.

Energy prices fell by 4.5% over the last year, while food inflation was 3.3%.

On a monthy basis, CPI was unchanged in October compared with September, a slowdown on the 0.4% rise recorded a month ago.

This may reassure America’s central bankers that they are winning in their battle to bring down inflation, meaning that further interest rate increases may not be needed.

US October CPI: Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report. Inflation flat m/m & 3.2% y/y. Core up 0.2% & 4% over that same time frame.

— Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) November 14, 2023

The UK’s Serious Fraud Office has carried out a series of dawn raids and arrests in connection with the collapse of law firm group Axiom Ince.

The SFO arrested seven individuals and raided nine sites around Bedfordshire on Tuesday morning, the Financial Times reports, as it announced a formal investigation into allegations of fraud at Axiom and £66mn of missing client money.

The SFO’s action comes almost seven weeks after British police launched a criminal investigation into Axoim, which admitted in mid-September that £64m of client money has largely disappeared, seemingly used to fund several takeovers.

In August, three Axiom Ince directors were suspended by the Solicitors Regulation Authority.

SFO director Nick Ephgrave, who began his role in September, has told the FT that the operation highlighted a new approach to investigations under his leadership.

Ephgrave says:

“We accepted the investigation on September 5 and a few weeks later we’re going through doors, gathering evidence and making arrests, and that’s the kind of approach I’m encouraging here.”

We have “gone from flash to bang quite quickly”, he added.

In the currency markets, the rouble has hit its highest level against the US dollar since August.

Russia’s currency strengthened to 90.6 roubles to the dollar, extending a recent rally since the start of October (when the rouble weakened through 100 to the dollar).

The rouble has benefited from recent interest rate increases, as Russia’s central bank has tried to support the currency.

Moscow has also imposed additional currency control, restricting western companies that sell their Russian assets from taking the proceeds in dollars and euros, which also helped the rouble.

Bus workers to strike, but BBC dispute resolved

Bus workers are to stage a series of strikes in a dispute over pay.

Members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union (RMT) at Stagecoach East Midlands will walk out for 48 hours from November 27 and for the same period from December 4, 11 and 18 after voting in favour of industrial action.

RMT general secretary Mick Lynch said:

“The huge endorsement for strike action by our Stagecoach members reflects the growing disgust among bus workers at being taken for granted while their pay continues to fall in real terms.

“Management need to come up with a reasonable offer that deals with the poverty pay and poor conditions in the industry.

“However, if Stagecoach bosses remain intransigent, our members are fully prepared to take further industrial action on and into the new year if necessary.”

But peace has broken out at the BBC, where journalists have voted overwhelmingly to accept a deal on jobs and programming, ending a long-running dispute.

Members of the National Union of Journalists (NUJ) in BBC Local backed the deal by 70% after previously taking industrial action.

Paul Siegert, NUJ broadcasting organiser, said:

“This is an overwhelming result in our long-running dispute at BBC Local. We’ve gained significant safeguards on jobs and income protection for NUJ members, along with new concessions on radio news bulletins and shared programming.

Here’s Georgia Quenby, Partner at City law firm Fladgate, on today’s insolvency data:

The October 2023 insolvency statistics show a continuation of the post-pandemic trend of a significant increase in the numbers of CVLs, a doubling of the number of CVAs from 11 to 23 and a further increase in administrations from 125 to 146 as against September 2022.

For context, these 23 CVAs represent more than 4 times as many CVAs than October 2022. At 146, the number of company administrations is 36% higher than October 2022, but this is a slight slowing of the rate of increase in administrations bringing the curve much more into line with historic averages.

The CVLs are likely to reflect a continuing “clear-out” of small businesses which have ceased trading across a whole range of sectors. But the increase in CVAs and administrations bringing the numbers more in line with 2019 and prior years is probably reflective of the continued availability of new money to support businesses which can be restructured and continue trading.

The ‘slow crush’ of persistently high interest rates are pushing businesses of all kinds to the point of failure, say Alex Jay and Tim Symes, partners at law firm Stewarts.

As the latest statistics from The Insolvency Service reveal that registered company insolvencies in October 2023 were 18% higher than in the same month in 2022, partners Alex Jay and Tim Symes analyse the challenges facing the economy.

Read more here: https://t.co/JYFIJIQPH3

— Stewarts (@StewartsLawLLP) November 14, 2023

Although business insolvencies are climbing, personal insolvencies dropped last month.

The Insolvency Service reports that there were 9,881 individual insolvencies across England and Wales in October.

That is 6% lower than in October 2022, although an increase on September when 7,280 personal insolvencies were filed.

A chart showing individual insolvencies Photograph: Insolvency Service

Joanne Wright, managing director at Kroll, says these personal insolvency statistics are “an ongoing conundrum”.

Despite the spike in interest rates and the ongoing cost of living crisis, the overall numbers are declining which is not what anyone would expect to see.”

“The one understandable statistic is the sharp incline in debt relief orders. Borrowers with no assets and debt levels of less than £30,000 seem to be using this procedure instead of Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs). This could be seen as a positive step as there have recently been some questions around how appropriate IVAs are for smaller borrowers.”



Summarize this content to 100 words US inflation falls to 3.2%Newsflash: Inflation in the United States has dropped by more than expected, as price pressures continue to ease.The US consumer prices index rose by 3.2% in the year to October, below the 3.3% expected, and down from the 3.7% recorded in September.Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, fell to 4.0%, the lowest since September 2021.Energy prices fell by 4.5% over the last year, while food inflation was 3.3%.On a monthy basis, CPI was unchanged in October compared with September, a slowdown on the 0.4% rise recorded a month ago.This may reassure America’s central bankers that they are winning in their battle to bring down inflation, meaning that further interest rate increases may not be needed.US October CPI: Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report. Inflation flat m/m & 3.2% y/y. Core up 0.2% & 4% over that same time frame.— Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) November 14, 2023 Key eventsSoft landing ‘looks likely’ as US inflation fallsUS inflation continues “on a downward trend”, says Richard Garland, chief investment strategist at Omnis Investments, adding: This should reaffirm the Fed’s view that interest rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation back to target, albeit they will keep rate hikes on the table until a low 2% inflation handle heaves into view. lthough a comforting inflation reading is still some distance away, the labour market is weakening and economic growth is set to slow as consumers reign in their spending; a soft landing for the economy still looks most likely, but downside surprises in economic growth could change the Fed’s focus next year. Updated at 08.48 ESTRichard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, says today’s drop in US inflation means the US Federal Reserve is less likely to raise interest rates higher.Flynn explains: Today’s figures show that the rate of inflation has fallen compared to last month, making the prospect of a soft landing ever more likely. The numbers revealed today indicate the Fed is inching closer to its 2% CPI target. The drop in inflation suggests that recent monetary policy has been doing its job. This good news reinforces the likelihood that the Central Bankers will hold off from further rate hikes in this cycle, which is the direction they seem to be leaning in any case. With wage growth slowing and sectors such as manufacturing losing pace, there is a risk that further tightening could trigger a problem in the economy. Higher rates in the US would also make it more expensive to borrow in US dollars, creating difficulties for emerging-market economies that do so. All in all, “higher for longer” looks like a much more sensible move than “even higher”.” Government bond prices are also strengthening, on relief that US inflation fell more sharply than expected last month.This has pushed down the yield (or interest rate) on US Treasuries, and also on European government bonds.Better than expected US CPI inflation numbers with headline flat (month-on-month) and core up 0.2%.This compares to the consensus forecasts of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.The market reactions include a sharp fall in yields (currently 12 bps for the 10 year), a weaker dollar,…— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 14, 2023Dollar slides as inflation fallsThe dollar is tumbling, after US inflation fell more quickly than expected last month.This has pushed the pound up by a whole cent, to $1.239, the highest in a week.The euro has also gained against the dollar, up nearly a cent to $1.079.Updated at 08.49 ESTUS inflation falls to 3.2%Newsflash: Inflation in the United States has dropped by more than expected, as price pressures continue to ease.The US consumer prices index rose by 3.2% in the year to October, below the 3.3% expected, and down from the 3.7% recorded in September.Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, fell to 4.0%, the lowest since September 2021.Energy prices fell by 4.5% over the last year, while food inflation was 3.3%.On a monthy basis, CPI was unchanged in October compared with September, a slowdown on the 0.4% rise recorded a month ago.This may reassure America’s central bankers that they are winning in their battle to bring down inflation, meaning that further interest rate increases may not be needed.US October CPI: Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report. Inflation flat m/m & 3.2% y/y. Core up 0.2% & 4% over that same time frame.— Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) November 14, 2023 The UK’s Serious Fraud Office has carried out a series of dawn raids and arrests in connection with the collapse of law firm group Axiom Ince.The SFO arrested seven individuals and raided nine sites around Bedfordshire on Tuesday morning, the Financial Times reports, as it announced a formal investigation into allegations of fraud at Axiom and £66mn of missing client money.The SFO’s action comes almost seven weeks after British police launched a criminal investigation into Axoim, which admitted in mid-September that £64m of client money has largely disappeared, seemingly used to fund several takeovers.In August, three Axiom Ince directors were suspended by the Solicitors Regulation Authority.SFO director Nick Ephgrave, who began his role in September, has told the FT that the operation highlighted a new approach to investigations under his leadership.Ephgrave says: “We accepted the investigation on September 5 and a few weeks later we’re going through doors, gathering evidence and making arrests, and that’s the kind of approach I’m encouraging here.” We have “gone from flash to bang quite quickly”, he added.In the currency markets, the rouble has hit its highest level against the US dollar since August.Russia’s currency strengthened to 90.6 roubles to the dollar, extending a recent rally since the start of October (when the rouble weakened through 100 to the dollar).The rouble has benefited from recent interest rate increases, as Russia’s central bank has tried to support the currency.Moscow has also imposed additional currency control, restricting western companies that sell their Russian assets from taking the proceeds in dollars and euros, which also helped the rouble.Bus workers to strike, but BBC dispute resolvedBus workers are to stage a series of strikes in a dispute over pay.Members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union (RMT) at Stagecoach East Midlands will walk out for 48 hours from November 27 and for the same period from December 4, 11 and 18 after voting in favour of industrial action.RMT general secretary Mick Lynch said: “The huge endorsement for strike action by our Stagecoach members reflects the growing disgust among bus workers at being taken for granted while their pay continues to fall in real terms. “Management need to come up with a reasonable offer that deals with the poverty pay and poor conditions in the industry. “However, if Stagecoach bosses remain intransigent, our members are fully prepared to take further industrial action on and into the new year if necessary.” But peace has broken out at the BBC, where journalists have voted overwhelmingly to accept a deal on jobs and programming, ending a long-running dispute.Members of the National Union of Journalists (NUJ) in BBC Local backed the deal by 70% after previously taking industrial action.Paul Siegert, NUJ broadcasting organiser, said: “This is an overwhelming result in our long-running dispute at BBC Local. We’ve gained significant safeguards on jobs and income protection for NUJ members, along with new concessions on radio news bulletins and shared programming. Here’s Georgia Quenby, Partner at City law firm Fladgate, on today’s insolvency data: The October 2023 insolvency statistics show a continuation of the post-pandemic trend of a significant increase in the numbers of CVLs, a doubling of the number of CVAs from 11 to 23 and a further increase in administrations from 125 to 146 as against September 2022. For context, these 23 CVAs represent more than 4 times as many CVAs than October 2022. At 146, the number of company administrations is 36% higher than October 2022, but this is a slight slowing of the rate of increase in administrations bringing the curve much more into line with historic averages. The CVLs are likely to reflect a continuing “clear-out” of small businesses which have ceased trading across a whole range of sectors. But the increase in CVAs and administrations bringing the numbers more in line with 2019 and prior years is probably reflective of the continued availability of new money to support businesses which can be restructured and continue trading. The ‘slow crush’ of persistently high interest…
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/nov/14/uk-real-wages-inflation-vacancies-fall-insolvencies-us-inflation-business-live US inflation slows to 3.2%; insolvencies jump 18% in England and Wales – business live | Business

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