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Would you like to get Covid and live longer?No, it doesn’t work that way | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Aaccording to BBCOn October 15, the Prime Minister allegedly sent a WhatsApp message. The median age is 82-81 for men and 85 for women. It exceeds life expectancy. So get Covid and live longer. Perhaps this was a joke, but why is it wrong?

First, more technically, the message confuses the two types of averages. When children study at school, the median means that the middle woman will be 85 years old, arranging the women according to the age at which they died in Covid-19. However, life expectancy is average. For example, assuming the current mortality rate continues, 100,000 newborns are likely to live, and add them up and divide by 100,000. Using UK data from 2017-19Life expectancy at birth is 79 for men and 83 for women, but the median age at death is slightly higher, as quoted in Covid-19, 81 for men and 83 for women. I’m 85 years old.

Then why Registered death Is the median age at which Covid is involved the same as deaths from other causes?In essence, the risk factors for dying in Covid Very similar to something that dies from something else – This bullying virus amplifies the vulnerability, so it works roughly as follows. Coefficient of multiplication to background fatal risk..

More importantly, your life expectancy increases as you get older.When the guys reach 79, their Average life Rise: In about 88 years, or even 9 years. Fortunately, your death keeps going ahead of you, and reaching the life expectancy you had at birth doesn’t mean you’re trying to shift out of this deadly coil. The average man celebrating his 98th birthday can be expected to live over 100 years old.

Health Foundation It is estimated that an average of 10 years of life is lost for each Covid-19 death. Similar figure For the United States, this is true Even if you take into account your existing health.. Therefore, the Covid-19 dead were not at the door of death.

Would you like to get Covid-19 and live longer? Unfortunately that is not the case.

David Spiegelhalter is the chair of the Winton Center for Risk and Evidence Communication in Cambridge.Anthony Masters is the Statistical Ambassador of the Royal Statistical Society

Would you like to get Covid and live longer?No, it doesn’t work that way | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Source link Would you like to get Covid and live longer?No, it doesn’t work that way | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

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