Devastating wildfires continued to burn across the Los Angeles metro area on Friday, prompting mandatory evacuations and school closures in the area. Next week promises little chance of relief; conditions will remain favorable for both the growth of wildfires there and for new blazes to spark, as the gusty wind remains amid very dry conditions. Officials reported five major blazes across the Los Angeles area as of Friday morning. The Palisades Fire in Pacific Palisades and Malibu has consumed more than 20,000 acres, while the Eaton Fire in Altadena has grown to more than 10,000 acres. At least 10,000 structures are estimated to have been destroyed in Los Angeles, and 10 people have died. Good fire weather requires dry vegetation, low humidity, and stiff winds. The combination of these ingredients allows the fire to ignite easily and spread quickly; This is a dangerous mixture that allowed the Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire to expand beyond the crew’s ability to control them earlier in the week. and the wind speed decreases. (In addition to helping the fire spread quickly, high seasonal Santa Ana winds earlier in the week also prevented firefighting planes from controlling the blaze with water and fire-resistant chemicals.) The bad news is that the wind is now likely. going to take it back-and on all other fronts, the situation is unlikely to be in the favor of the firefighters’ at any time. of the National Weather Service tasked with issuing fire weather outlooks, said that the risk for fire conditions will remain elevated across Los Angeles heading into this weekend. We can see two more moderate Santa Ana wind events in the coming days early in the day. Friday, and the rest can be on Tuesday. These gusts of wind can push the spread of existing fires and ignite additional fires. The Santa Ana wind event occurs when there is a pressure difference between the Great Basin—a vast landmass in Nevada and Utah—and the coastal communities around Los Angeles. Meteorologists often use the online pressure differential between Las Vegas and Los Angeles to predict these winds. Stronger pressure differences create stronger winds that rush to the coast, fueling existing wildfires. This is what we predict we will see again in the coming days. Vegetation will also continue to be very dry in these areas. It’s the middle of southern California’s rainy season—but it’s not raining. After seeing its third-wettest February last year, Los Angeles International Airport reported just 0.03 inches of rain since the start of last summer. Although mid-January is the prime time for Los Angeles’ rainy season, there are strong hopes for meaningful rain over the next week and a half. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that we have officially entered La Niña, a pattern of cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean around the equator. Changes in the atmosphere in response to La Niña can force the jet stream to move north through the Eastern Pacific Ocean, which shunts storms to the West Coast of Canada instead of the western US, starving countries like California of rain. Right on cue, the main storm track across the Pacific Ocean will stay up near the Gulf of Alaska through mid-January, providing some opportunity for rain to make it as far south as Southern California. Forecasters expect a weak La Niña to stay through. end of winter, with decent odds that the pattern will fade in time for spring. Unfortunately, this time could coincide with the start of the dry season in Southern California. That doesn’t mean we might not see a chance of rain in the coming months. However, little or no rain until at least mid-January will keep vegetation very dry across the region. The continued risk of new fires and additional fire growth will depend on low humidity with strong winds—and additional Santa Ana wind events could be dangerous in the coming weeks.
Los Angeles will remain under fire risk until next week
