Coffee prices come under pressure as global supplies recover
Arabica coffee in July (KCN24) This morning's decline rate is -5.10 (-2.54%), July ICE Robusta coffee (RMN24) is not trading today as UK markets are closed for the May Day public holiday.
Arabic coffee prices today extended their decline for the first time in two weeks to the lowest level in a month. Regarding coffee prices, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that world coffee exports in March increased by 8.1% year-on-year to 12.99 million bags, and world coffee exports from October to March increased by 10.4% year-on-year. The negative carryover from last Friday is weighing on the market. y is 69.16 million bags.
ICE Coffee's inventory of Arabica coffee monitored by ICE increased to its highest level in a year last Friday, and the inventory of Robusta coffee monitored by ICE increased to its highest level in five months. A recovery in supplies has also eased supply concerns, making us bearish on coffee prices.
Coffee prices soared in April, with Arabica coffee hitting a new two-year high and futures (K24) Robusta coffee recently hitting a new all-time high. Coffee prices have soared due to concerns about coffee harvests in Brazil and Vietnam. Robusta coffee has hit a record high on concerns that excessive dryness in Vietnam could limit the country's Robusta coffee production.
Dryness in Brazil could reduce coffee production, as Somar Meteorologia announced today that Brazil's Minas Gerais state has seen zero or 0% of the historical average precipitation over the past week, with the region experiencing 2. Prices are supported by reports of no rain for the week in a row. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop.
A bullish factor is the tight supply of Robusta coffee from Vietnam, the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee beans. On March 26, Vietnam's Agriculture Department predicted that Vietnam's coffee production in 2023/24 will decline by 20% to 1.472 MMT due to the drought, the smallest harvest in the past four years. In addition, the Vietnam Coffee Association predicted that Vietnam's coffee export volume in 2023/24 will decrease by 20% from the previous year to 1.336 MMT. Additionally, Marex Group Plc predicts that the global Robusta coffee deficit in 2024/25 will decrease by 2.7 million bags due to lower production in Vietnam.
Coffee stocks have recovered from historic lows. Robusta coffee inventories monitored by ICE fell to an all-time low of 1,958 lots on February 21, but rebounded to a five-month high of 4,059 lots last Friday. In addition, the inventory of Arabica coffee monitored by ICE fell to a 24-year low of 224,066 bags on November 30, but reached a one-year high of 689,178 bags last Friday. recovered to.
There has been some bearish news on exports recently. Cecafe reported on April 10 that Brazil's March raw coffee export volume increased by +41% year-on-year to his 3.9 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee beans. Also, on February 1, Brazilian exporter group Comexim raised its forecast for Brazil's coffee exports in 2023/24 to 44.9 million bags from 41.5 million bags. The International Coffee Association (ICO) announced on April 15 that world coffee exports in February increased by 6.8% year-on-year to 11.33 million bags, and total world coffee exports from October to February in 2023/24 increased year-on-year. It was reported that the number of bags increased by +11.1% to 56.2 bags. A million bags. As a bearish factor for Robusta, the Vietnam Bureau of Statistics announced last Monday that Vietnam's coffee export volume in April increased by 3.9% year-on-year to 170,000 tons, and Vietnam's coffee export volume from January to April increased by 5.4% year-on-year. It was reported that the amount increased to 756,000 tons.
Last year's El Niño phenomenon created a bullish market for coffee prices. El Niño events typically bring heavy rains to Brazil and droughts to India, negatively impacting coffee crop production. According to officials from the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, the El Niño phenomenon has caused a drought in Vietnam's coffee region this year.
On a bearish note, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said last Friday that global coffee production in 2023/24 will increase by +5.8% year-on-year to 178 million bags due to a biennial exceptional crop year. I predicted that would happen. ICO also predicts that global coffee consumption will increase by 2.2% year-on-year to 177 million bags in 2023/24, resulting in a surplus of 1 million bags of coffee.
In its biannual report released on December 21, USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) revealed that global coffee production in 2023/24 will increase by 4.2% from the previous year to 171.4 million bags. Among them, Arabica production is expected to increase by +10.7%. Robusta production decreased by -3.3% to 74.1 million bags. USDA's FAS projects that ending inventory in 2023/24 will be 26.5 million bags, down -4.0% from 27.6 million bags in 2022/23. USDA's FAS predicts that Brazil's 2023/24 Arabica production will increase by +12.8% year-on-year to 44.9 million bags due to higher yields and increased acreage. The USDA's FAS also predicts that Colombia, the world's second-largest Arabica producer, will produce 11.5 million bags of coffee in 2023/24, up 7.5% from the previous year.
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On the date of publication, rich asplund I had no position (directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy for more information. here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Arabica coffee in July (KCN24) This morning's decline rate is -5.10 (-2.54%), July ICE Robusta coffee (RMN24) is not trading today as UK markets are closed for the May Day public holiday.Arabic coffee prices today extended their decline for the first time in two weeks to the lowest level in a month. Regarding coffee prices, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that world coffee exports in March increased by 8.1% year-on-year to 12.99 million bags, and world coffee exports from October to March increased by 10.4% year-on-year. The negative carryover from last Friday is weighing on the market. y is 69.16 million bags.
ICE Coffee's inventory of Arabica coffee monitored by ICE increased to its highest level in a year last Friday, and the inventory of Robusta coffee monitored by ICE increased to its highest level in five months. A recovery in supplies has also eased supply concerns, making us bearish on coffee prices.Coffee prices soared in April, with Arabica coffee hitting a new two-year high and futures (K24) Robusta coffee recently hitting a new all-time high. Coffee prices have soared due to concerns about coffee harvests in Brazil and Vietnam. Robusta coffee has hit a record high on concerns that excessive dryness in Vietnam could limit the country's Robusta coffee production.Dryness in Brazil could reduce coffee production, as Somar Meteorologia announced today that Brazil's Minas Gerais state has seen zero or 0% of the historical average precipitation over the past week, with the region experiencing 2. Prices are supported by reports of no rain for the week in a row. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop.A bullish factor is the tight supply of Robusta coffee from Vietnam, the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee beans. On March 26, Vietnam's Agriculture Department predicted that Vietnam's coffee production in 2023/24 will decline by 20% to 1.472 MMT due to the drought, the smallest harvest in the past four years. In addition, the Vietnam Coffee Association predicted that Vietnam's coffee export volume in 2023/24 will decrease by 20% from the previous year to 1.336 MMT. Additionally, Marex Group Plc predicts that the global Robusta coffee deficit in 2024/25 will decrease by 2.7 million bags due to lower production in Vietnam.Coffee stocks have recovered from historic lows. Robusta coffee inventories monitored by ICE fell to an all-time low of 1,958 lots on February 21, but rebounded to a five-month high of 4,059 lots last Friday. In addition, the inventory of Arabica coffee monitored by ICE fell to a 24-year low of 224,066 bags on November 30, but reached a one-year high of 689,178 bags last Friday. recovered to.
There has been some bearish news on exports recently. Cecafe reported on April 10 that Brazil's March raw coffee export volume increased by +41% year-on-year to his 3.9 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee beans. Also, on February 1, Brazilian exporter group Comexim raised its forecast for Brazil's coffee exports in 2023/24 to 44.9 million bags from 41.5 million bags. The International Coffee Association (ICO) announced on April 15 that world coffee exports in February increased by 6.8% year-on-year to 11.33 million bags, and total world coffee exports from October to February in 2023/24 increased year-on-year. It was reported that the number of bags increased by +11.1% to 56.2 bags. A million bags. As a bearish factor for Robusta, the Vietnam Bureau of Statistics announced last Monday that Vietnam's coffee export volume in April increased by 3.9% year-on-year to 170,000 tons, and Vietnam's coffee export volume from January to April increased by 5.4% year-on-year. It was reported that the amount increased to 756,000 tons.Last year's El Niño phenomenon created a bullish market for coffee prices. El Niño events typically bring heavy rains to Brazil and droughts to India, negatively impacting coffee crop production. According to officials from the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, the El Niño phenomenon has caused a drought in Vietnam's coffee region this year.On a bearish note, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said last Friday that global coffee production in 2023/24 will increase by +5.8% year-on-year to 178 million bags due to a biennial exceptional crop year. I predicted that would happen. ICO also predicts that global coffee consumption will increase by 2.2% year-on-year to 177 million bags in 2023/24, resulting in a surplus of 1 million bags of coffee.In its biannual report released on December 21, USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) revealed that global coffee production in 2023/24 will increase by 4.2% from the previous year to 171.4 million bags. Among them, Arabica production is expected to increase by +10.7%. Robusta production decreased by -3.3% to 74.1 million bags. USDA's FAS projects that ending inventory in 2023/24 will be 26.5 million bags, down -4.0% from 27.6 million bags in 2022/23. USDA's FAS predicts that Brazil's 2023/24 Arabica production will increase by +12.8% year-on-year to 44.9 million bags due to higher yields and increased acreage. The USDA's FAS also predicts that Colombia, the world's second-largest Arabica producer, will produce 11.5 million bags of coffee in 2023/24, up 7.5% from the previous year.
more coffee news from bar chart
On the date of publication, rich asplund I had no position (directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy for more information. here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/coffee-prices-under-pressure-as-global-supplies-rebound Coffee prices come under pressure as global supplies recover
