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Can China broker peace in Ukraine?Do not leave out | Rajan Menon and Daniel R. Depetris

Rajang Menon
Dan DePetris Circular Panelist Byline.
Daniel R. Depetris

Xi Jinping’s phone call with Volodymyr Zelensky I couldn’t wait to come, but it was not surprising. Beijing is on everyone’s shortlist when it comes to Ukraine’s future peacebuilder. French President Emmanuel Macron is no exception. “I know you can count on us to bring Russia back to reason and bring everyone back to the negotiating table.” macron said Chinese leaders during a conference in Beijing this month.

Xi said he would call the Ukrainian president, but he was in no hurry. He has no illusions about the difficulty of mediating in a war in which Ukraine and Russia are diametrically opposed. But the recent success of China’s normalization of relations has Iran and Saudi Arabia [HemightbetemptedtohelpdesignadiplomaticsolutiontothebiggestwarfoughtinEuropesince1945Butwhatwouldthatsolutionlooklike?[1945年以来ヨーロッパで戦われた最大の戦争の外交的解決策を設計するのを助けるように彼を誘惑するかもしれませんしかし、その解決策はどのように見えるでしょうか?

The Chinese have repeatedly emphasized that Most clear in the 12-point peace proposal They announced on the one-year anniversary of the war that peace in Ukraine could only be restored through negotiations “finally reaching a comprehensive ceasefire.” Despite conventional wisdom, Beijing did not advocate a ceasefire that would freeze the current front as a new frontier (a deal that would leave much of Ukraine’s territory in Russian hands), but rather led it “eventually”. He advocated the beginning of a political process to bring about a permanent cessation of hostilities. Moreover, the proposal said nothing about the territorial terms of the settlement, and in fact emphasized the need for both sides to show restraint. Read Xi’s dialogue with Zelensky. Most importantly, it stressed the need to respect “the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all nations, whether weak or strong, rich or poor.”

The phrasing is appropriate. China pays close attention to diplomatic language, especially official statements. Beijing certainlyunlimited friendshipBut he is careful not to take a Russian-friendly stance so much that Ukraine is unwilling to accept China as an intermediary.

Xi Jinping has stated that by winning the war militarily, Russia will not be able to achieve its territorial objectives, which is to at least divide Ukraine, and that the fighting will only take place through mutual compromise agreements by both parties. It probably understands by now that it can end. Just as Russia matters to China, Xi Jinping wants to protect China’s economic interests in Ukraine in the long run: China still Ukrainian largest foreign trade partner and have funded major infrastructure projectsThis includes the modernization of Mykolaiv Port and the construction of a new metro line in Kiev.

The United States and some European allies will probably dismiss Xi Jinping’s offer to Zelensky as yet another stunt to mask Beijing’s political and economic support for Putin during the war. March hits 33-month high, refused to endorse a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression.This partially explains Washington’s rejection of Beijing’s 12-point plan.

But China’s cautious move to establish itself as a mediator of diplomatic settlements in Ukraine should not be dismissed immediately. Xi would not have wasted any time without ending his long conversation with Zelensky. It did not say it was ready to send. Neither will China do so without the support of diplomatic initiatives from Russia and Ukraine. Needless to say, Zelensky called the call with Xi Jinping “meaningful” and positive, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Kudos to Xi Because it is “ready to work hard to establish” a diplomatic line.

China may be interested in revitalizing the negotiating process between Kiev and Russia, but an agreement to end the war will not be reached anytime soon, and may not even be achieved. equally able to read the battlefield and combatant positions, And he sees the blunt reality that in the short term there will be more wars, not fewer. Ukrainian forces are in the final stages of preparation for a massive counteroffensive against Russian positions to the south and east. The United States and its NATO ally continue to coordinate efforts to ensure that Kiev has the weapons needed for a successful campaign, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, mine clearing equipment and air defense systems.The Russian army spent many months solidify the defense Despite a group of Wagnerian mercenaries trying to capture Bakhmut after eight months of toil, they control about 20% of Ukraine. Therefore, neither Ukraine nor Russia will rush to the negotiating table anytime soon. And even if they do end up meeting, mediation efforts could prove to be fools’ business, given how far apart Russia and Ukraine are on the minimum terms of an agreement. there is.

Still, Xi’s call to Mr. Zelensky, and Kiev’s and Moscow’s positive reactions to it, may at least inspire creative thinking about how to end war. Destruction will continue endlessly.

  • Rajan Menon is Director of the Grand Strategy Program at Defense Priorities, Professor Emeritus at New York City College’s Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership, and co-author of Conflict in Ukraine: Unwinding the Post. .cold war order



Summarize this content to 100 words Rajang MenonDaniel R. DepetrisXi Jinping’s phone call with Volodymyr Zelensky I couldn’t wait to come, but it was not surprising. Beijing is on everyone’s shortlist when it comes to Ukraine’s future peacebuilder. French President Emmanuel Macron is no exception. “I know you can count on us to bring Russia back to reason and bring everyone back to the negotiating table.” macron said Chinese leaders during a conference in Beijing this month.Xi said he would call the Ukrainian president, but he was in no hurry. He has no illusions about the difficulty of mediating in a war in which Ukraine and Russia are diametrically opposed. But the recent success of China’s normalization of relations has Iran and Saudi Arabia [HemightbetemptedtohelpdesignadiplomaticsolutiontothebiggestwarfoughtinEuropesince1945Butwhatwouldthatsolutionlooklike?[1945年以来ヨーロッパで戦われた最大の戦争の外交的解決策を設計するのを助けるように彼を誘惑するかもしれませんしかし、その解決策はどのように見えるでしょうか?The Chinese have repeatedly emphasized that Most clear in the 12-point peace proposal They announced on the one-year anniversary of the war that peace in Ukraine could only be restored through negotiations “finally reaching a comprehensive ceasefire.” Despite conventional wisdom, Beijing did not advocate a ceasefire that would freeze the current front as a new frontier (a deal that would leave much of Ukraine’s territory in Russian hands), but rather led it “eventually”. He advocated the beginning of a political process to bring about a permanent cessation of hostilities. Moreover, the proposal said nothing about the territorial terms of the settlement, and in fact emphasized the need for both sides to show restraint. Read Xi’s dialogue with Zelensky. Most importantly, it stressed the need to respect “the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all nations, whether weak or strong, rich or poor.”The phrasing is appropriate. China pays close attention to diplomatic language, especially official statements. Beijing certainlyunlimited friendshipBut he is careful not to take a Russian-friendly stance so much that Ukraine is unwilling to accept China as an intermediary.Xi Jinping has stated that by winning the war militarily, Russia will not be able to achieve its territorial objectives, which is to at least divide Ukraine, and that the fighting will only take place through mutual compromise agreements by both parties. It probably understands by now that it can end. Just as Russia matters to China, Xi Jinping wants to protect China’s economic interests in Ukraine in the long run: China still Ukrainian largest foreign trade partner and have funded major infrastructure projectsThis includes the modernization of Mykolaiv Port and the construction of a new metro line in Kiev.The United States and some European allies will probably dismiss Xi Jinping’s offer to Zelensky as yet another stunt to mask Beijing’s political and economic support for Putin during the war. March hits 33-month high, refused to endorse a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression.This partially explains Washington’s rejection of Beijing’s 12-point plan.But China’s cautious move to establish itself as a mediator of diplomatic settlements in Ukraine should not be dismissed immediately. Xi would not have wasted any time without ending his long conversation with Zelensky. It did not say it was ready to send. Neither will China do so without the support of diplomatic initiatives from Russia and Ukraine. Needless to say, Zelensky called the call with Xi Jinping “meaningful” and positive, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Kudos to Xi Because it is “ready to work hard to establish” a diplomatic line.China may be interested in revitalizing the negotiating process between Kiev and Russia, but an agreement to end the war will not be reached anytime soon, and may not even be achieved. equally able to read the battlefield and combatant positions, And he sees the blunt reality that in the short term there will be more wars, not fewer. Ukrainian forces are in the final stages of preparation for a massive counteroffensive against Russian positions to the south and east. The United States and its NATO ally continue to coordinate efforts to ensure that Kiev has the weapons needed for a successful campaign, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, mine clearing equipment and air defense systems.The Russian army spent many months solidify the defense Despite a group of Wagnerian mercenaries trying to capture Bakhmut after eight months of toil, they control about 20% of Ukraine. Therefore, neither Ukraine nor Russia will rush to the negotiating table anytime soon. And even if they do end up meeting, mediation efforts could prove to be fools’ business, given how far apart Russia and Ukraine are on the minimum terms of an agreement. there is.Still, Xi’s call to Mr. Zelensky, and Kiev’s and Moscow’s positive reactions to it, may at least inspire creative thinking about how to end war. Destruction will continue endlessly.
Rajan Menon is Director of the Grand Strategy Program at Defense Priorities, Professor Emeritus at New York City College’s Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership, and co-author of Conflict in Ukraine: Unwinding the Post. .cold war order

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/28/china-peace-ukraine-xi-jinping-moscow-kyiv Can China broker peace in Ukraine?Do not leave out | Rajan Menon and Daniel R. Depetris

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