‘Great Humiliation’: Rebellion Failure Exposes Putin’s Regime’s Deep Flaws
President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish Yevgeny Prigozhin for “treason” against the armed uprising of warlords. Instead, the former Kremlin caterer and his Wagner group have mostly been acquitted after staging Russia’s first failed coup in 30 years.
Although Prigozhin’s failed uprising ended abruptly, it still exposed deep flaws at the heart of Putin’s government, raised serious questions about the invasion of Ukraine, and raised fears of national collapse if unrest reignited. said a source close to the Kremlin. Financial Times.
“Of course, it’s a huge humiliation for Putin. It’s clear,” said a Russian oligarch who has known the Russian president since the 1990s. “Thousands of people with no resistance, From Rostov almost to Moscow, no one can do anything.after that [Putin] They announced they would be punished, but they were not. It’s definitely a sign of weakness.”
At the root of the rebellion was dissatisfaction within the Russian military over how it handled President Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — a tussle between militias and the regular army that brought the state to the brink of collapse. Russian military and security officials were unable to stop Prigozhin’s uprising.
Wagner’s ease of rebellion, the lack of resistance from other security forces, and the enthusiastic reception he received when his soldiers pacified the southern city of Rostov “did damage. ” [Putin’s] It has a good reputation in the country,” said Alexei Venediktov, a well-connected former editor-in-chief of the Echo Moscow radio station.
“It turns out that if you revolt against the president, it’s permissible, which means he’s not that strong.”
The anomaly has prompted even ardent supporters of aggression to publicly question the rationale for Russia’s aggression, fearing further shocks will ensue.
Former Kremlin spin-doctor and parliamentarian Sergei Markov wrote in Telegram that “the whole world is watching that Russia is in a dire political crisis.” “Yes, the uprising didn’t succeed, but there are underlying reasons for the uprising. And if those reasons remain, there may be uproar again. And it may succeed.”
For now, the Kremlin says it has quelled Prigozhin’s threat following the warlord’s murder. agreed to leave Russia For Belarus, it was in exchange for a promise not to prosecute him or Wagner’s warriors.
On Sunday, Russian state media tried to report that life was going on pretty much as usual. Local government officials were mobilized to repair highways damaged by Wagner’s march, while Russian forces recaptured the command center in Rostov, briefly occupied by Wagner the previous day.
But Russia’s attempt to downplay the incident as an inconvenient betrays the serious problems that the invasion of Ukraine has posed for the Putin administration.
“This is nothing more than a sign of weakness and dysfunction,” said Russian political scientist Ekaterina Shulman. “This is not an unexpected one-off event or external shock. This is part of war,” she said.
The Kremlin insisted on Saturday that Prigozhin’s uprising would not affect its response to the war. But Wagner’s prominent role on the front was itself the result of Russia’s mishandling of the invasion.
Initially formed to fight covertly in conflicts around the world, Putin redeployed Wagner’s men to Ukraine when the invasion plan failed. He then expanded Prigogine’s position by personally signing pardons for convicted criminals who took part in the fighting.
“They started a war they shouldn’t have, couldn’t manage it properly, and resorted to extreme measures of having an army of prisoners amassed,” Shulman said. “He ended up being a politician, so they had to deal with it. One thing leads to another.”
Putin’s reluctance to end the months-long public feud between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense seems to have convinced him former caterer Sources close to the Kremlin say he had enough power to pull off a successful rebellion.
But the episode also proved detrimental to Prigozhin after he failed to secure the resignations of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of the Russian invasion force Valery Gerasimov.
According to the Kremlin, some of the Wagner forces will be contracted with the Ministry of Defense. This amounts to humiliation after Prigozin said his group would never submit to Shoigu. This robs Mr. Putin of the money and influence that he gained just by responding personally to him.
After the uprising began, Prigogine seemed to know little how to pull it off, according to people who have known him since the early 1990s.
“I don’t think he had anything in mind. He just decided to convince Putin that he should take back all the money they stole,” the source said. “Then the situation completely spiraled out of control.”
“At some point, he realized that he didn’t know what to do next. Once he arrived in Moscow, what would happen next? You come, the country is in shambles, and you end up in the Kremlin…and you don’t know what to do.”
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasian Center, said the humiliating episode will likely prompt Putin to dismantle Wagner so that he can no longer threaten the state.
“They promised not to touch anyone, but I think it’s entirely possible that someone could be imprisoned or die a mysterious death to scare the rest of us,” Gabuev said. Told. “Putin should now realize how fragile the system is and will try to fix it.”
Exactly how Russia persuaded Prigozhin to resign remains a mystery, with many in the Russian elite believing that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who ostensibly brokered the deal, was standing in for a Russian strongman. I doubt it.
“I wanted to call everyone. [Prigozhin] and trade. And in the end they found a more rational middleman in Luke, and both sides found a way to back off,” said a source close to Prigogine.
Russia’s elite, who failed to stop the rebellion, are also unlikely to escape unscathed, and Putin now sees a threat to his power. The CIA knew this was going to happen, but your own secret service didn’t know or report it. We’re going to keep the elite on edge,” Gabuev said.
But even large-scale changes may not be enough to restore order, the oligarchs said. Since Russia’s war effort began to falter last year, many in Russia’s elite have been talking about the possibility of a “Difficult Age”, a re-enactment of the long and violent political crisis of the early 17th century when various factions fought for the throne. started discussing.
But the oligarch still said, “If it started, I expected the military to intervene immediately. And they didn’t. That’s a surprise.”
Summarize this content to 100 words President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish Yevgeny Prigozhin for “treason” against the armed uprising of warlords. Instead, the former Kremlin caterer and his Wagner group have mostly been acquitted after staging Russia’s first failed coup in 30 years.Although Prigozhin’s failed uprising ended abruptly, it still exposed deep flaws at the heart of Putin’s government, raised serious questions about the invasion of Ukraine, and raised fears of national collapse if unrest reignited. said a source close to the Kremlin. Financial Times.”Of course, it’s a huge humiliation for Putin. It’s clear,” said a Russian oligarch who has known the Russian president since the 1990s. “Thousands of people with no resistance, From Rostov almost to Moscow, no one can do anything.after that [Putin] They announced they would be punished, but they were not. It’s definitely a sign of weakness.”At the root of the rebellion was dissatisfaction within the Russian military over how it handled President Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — a tussle between militias and the regular army that brought the state to the brink of collapse. Russian military and security officials were unable to stop Prigozhin’s uprising.Wagner’s ease of rebellion, the lack of resistance from other security forces, and the enthusiastic reception he received when his soldiers pacified the southern city of Rostov “did damage. ” [Putin’s] It has a good reputation in the country,” said Alexei Venediktov, a well-connected former editor-in-chief of the Echo Moscow radio station. “It turns out that if you revolt against the president, it’s permissible, which means he’s not that strong.”Rostov locals greet Wagner fighters as they depart in front of the army headquarters in Rostov © STR/ReutersThe anomaly has prompted even ardent supporters of aggression to publicly question the rationale for Russia’s aggression, fearing further shocks will ensue. Former Kremlin spin-doctor and parliamentarian Sergei Markov wrote in Telegram that “the whole world is watching that Russia is in a dire political crisis.” “Yes, the uprising didn’t succeed, but there are underlying reasons for the uprising. And if those reasons remain, there may be uproar again. And it may succeed.”For now, the Kremlin says it has quelled Prigozhin’s threat following the warlord’s murder. agreed to leave Russia For Belarus, it was in exchange for a promise not to prosecute him or Wagner’s warriors. On Sunday, Russian state media tried to report that life was going on pretty much as usual. Local government officials were mobilized to repair highways damaged by Wagner’s march, while Russian forces recaptured the command center in Rostov, briefly occupied by Wagner the previous day.But Russia’s attempt to downplay the incident as an inconvenient betrays the serious problems that the invasion of Ukraine has posed for the Putin administration.”This is nothing more than a sign of weakness and dysfunction,” said Russian political scientist Ekaterina Shulman. “This is not an unexpected one-off event or external shock. This is part of war,” she said.Russian soldiers are sent to clean up around the city’s military headquarters © APThe Kremlin insisted on Saturday that Prigozhin’s uprising would not affect its response to the war. But Wagner’s prominent role on the front was itself the result of Russia’s mishandling of the invasion.Initially formed to fight covertly in conflicts around the world, Putin redeployed Wagner’s men to Ukraine when the invasion plan failed. He then expanded Prigogine’s position by personally signing pardons for convicted criminals who took part in the fighting.”They started a war they shouldn’t have, couldn’t manage it properly, and resorted to extreme measures of having an army of prisoners amassed,” Shulman said. “He ended up being a politician, so they had to deal with it. One thing leads to another.”Putin’s reluctance to end the months-long public feud between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense seems to have convinced him former caterer Sources close to the Kremlin say he had enough power to pull off a successful rebellion. But the episode also proved detrimental to Prigozhin after he failed to secure the resignations of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of the Russian invasion force Valery Gerasimov. According to the Kremlin, some of the Wagner forces will be contracted with the Ministry of Defense. This amounts to humiliation after Prigozin said his group would never submit to Shoigu. This robs Mr. Putin of the money and influence that he gained just by responding personally to him.Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal to end the rebellion © Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP/Getty ImagesAfter the uprising began, Prigogine seemed to know little how to pull it off, according to people who have known him since the early 1990s.”I don’t think he had anything in mind. He just decided to convince Putin that he should take back all the money they stole,” the source said. “Then the situation completely spiraled out of control.”“At some point, he realized that he didn’t know what to do next. Once he arrived in Moscow, what would happen next? You come, the country is in shambles, and you end up in the Kremlin…and you don’t know what to do.”Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasian Center, said the humiliating episode will likely prompt Putin to dismantle Wagner so that he can no longer threaten the state. “They promised not to touch anyone, but I think it’s entirely possible that someone could be imprisoned or die a mysterious death to scare the rest of us,” Gabuev said. Told. “Putin should now realize how fragile the system is and will try to fix it.”Exactly how Russia persuaded Prigozhin to resign remains a mystery, with many in the Russian elite believing that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who ostensibly brokered the deal, was standing in for a Russian strongman. I doubt it. “I wanted to call everyone. [Prigozhin] and trade. And in the end they found a more rational middleman in Luke, and both sides found a way to back off,” said a source close to Prigogine.Russia’s elite, who failed to stop the rebellion, are also unlikely to escape unscathed, and Putin now sees a threat to his power. The CIA knew this was going to happen, but your own secret service didn’t know or report it. We’re going to keep the elite on edge,” Gabuev said.But even large-scale changes may not be enough to restore order, the oligarchs said. Since Russia’s war effort began to falter last year, many in Russia’s elite have been talking about the possibility of a “Difficult Age”, a re-enactment of the long and violent political crisis of the early 17th century when various factions fought for the throne. started discussing. But the oligarch still said, “If it started, I expected the military to intervene immediately. And they didn’t. That’s a surprise.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2e934172-884a-4aa7-a7a2-38c61038a603 ‘Great Humiliation’: Rebellion Failure Exposes Putin’s Regime’s Deep Flaws